John Kerry Senate Seat - Unsafe

The Massachusetts State Primary will be held on Tuesday, September 16 – voters that do go to the polls (low voter turnout expected) will choose between incumbent John F. Kerry and Ed O’Reilly, who has run, what many feel, is a successful grassroots campaign. A debate between the two candidates, that was originally broadcast on WBZ TV Boston, was shown on TV 38 (available statewide) as of yesterday – too little too late to impact a race? That depends a great deal on the independent and democrat electorate.

It is generally determined that John Kerry’s seat is “safe” in the general election based upon polls taken at the beginning of August. One poll left out of that analysis is the Suffolk University Poll that suggested over 50% of the state electorate feels that Mr. Kerry should not be rehired. Although it has been mentioned that yard signs are hardly an indicator of which way the election will go –Ed O’Reilly signs are in yards and along roadways in Massachusetts – in large numbers. Further, Mr. O’Reilly has been endorsed by several of the Bay States newspapers, including the Goucester Daily Times (Note: that is hardley the Boston Globe).

What remains to be seen is if those Clinton Supporters are still holding a grudge against Kerry for endorsing Obama early and ignoring the Bay state Democrats who overwhelmingly supported Clinton. What are the odds that O’Reilly will be running against Republican candidate Jeff Beatty in November? 60/40 would be the best estimate. Here's why the challenger is favored - should voter turn-out be low the incumbent may not survive the primary. If this is a popularity contest, as so many of the US elections have become, then Kerry, is in big trouble. Also, consider that the media has given O’Reilly access to both print and local television (granted sometimes limited to the Web) giving voters a chance to meet Mr. O'Reilly – therfore, democrats know who Ed O’Reilly is, and who he is running against. Local Western Mass. NBC Station, interview with both candidates: here.
Prediction: O’Reilly will emerge as the challenger to Republican, Jeff Beatty in November’s race for the Massachusetts senate seat formerly held by John Kerry.

Addendum 9-16-08: Re: Voter Turnout - As of 7:35 a total of 7 women had voted in my precinct. On February 6th by that same time: 302 people had voted. One had to admire the PUMA stickers, the women with their daughters and the smile when I menioned a low turnout were priceless. (Western Mass). From Eastern Mass, the report is similar.