Thursday, December 18, 2014
The Potentials – Bush, Paul, Cruz, Perry , Christie and the middle and the base 2016 GOP Maybes
There is a lot of speculation going into the 2016 GOP presidential sweepstakes given the fact that not one person has yet announced an intent to run. Although there have been a slew of polls suggesting that one or the other at any given time is the leader of a large field of candidates. From this perspective, there are few possible contenders and fewer that would make it past South Carolina given the base and those independents who were detrimental in bringing the house and the senate to the GOP.
However, that does not stop the middle of the road, dynastic characters (or also ran multiple times) candidates from suggesting they may run, keeping pollsters thrilled to have new fodder for the press.
The GOP – the national GOP loves candidates that are so moderate they would be considered the opposition if they were running as a Democrat (which they could, easily given their stance on issues ranging from immigration to Common Core.)
The only question one needs to ask at this point, since there are truly only a handful of possible contenders is which of those would make it through the first three primaries and, as no one has yet truly announced, and set up shop in Iowa, then it’s all for naught.
Maybe. What polls do is fuel news, and adding in those who most likely will not run, or most definitely will not succeed if they do, aids in hardening the minds of those who are on the fence, or suggesting they would make an announcement in the spring, or even the summer of 2015. In the reality of the 24 hour news cycle and the fact that one needs to get to know the character in question in order to consider them for any job, the sooner announced the better. That said, once announced, the actual opposition (Democrats and Press) will have time to either undermine that announced individual one way or the other, or, find food for fodder to be used at a later date should that individual succeed in making it to the primary gauntlet. That’s before the national GOP determines it has a winner in the group –or outside the group and will do it’s best to help anyone with opposition in order to stymie someone who could actually win, both the primaries and the general, especially if that one is considered an outsider.
Shades of Ronald Reagan, who the National GOP despised and did everything in their power to derail –until he won and went on to become of the most iconic figures in GOP history – so now they use his memory as the standard. He’s turning over in his grave with their last two election choices, one can just imagine.
The take on things as they stand with those most likely to announce:
Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida and the bother and son of two former Presidents – he is, in all likelihood, perhaps the best equipped having been a governor as well as having been in the White House under two administrations, if not in a policy sense, in a family sense. Obviously, this is dynastic, the one thing that is a deterrent in this cycle – familiar faces. Additionally he embraces several ideologies most often reserved for those of the opposition party. He would, while running, suggest he’s the most conservative (al –la Mitt Romney) and would never make it out of Iowa
Chris Christie, the current Governor of the over-taxed State of New Jersey and an individual who does not do well in a crisis. (See Sandy and his meltdown with the President). Enough said.
Paul, who is the Senator from Kentucky and the son of Congressman Ron Paul, who ran multiple times on the ticket and is a bit quirky at times (kindly put). He is an obvious threat to the opposition party, given the local politicians, such as newly defeated Alison Lundergan-Grimes, Kentucky Democrat who lost her Senate bid to Mitch McConnell, not without help from Rand Paul, is using Paul’s name as a way to ingratiate herself with the base – she intends to insure he cannot run for Senate and the White House at the same time (Politico). With that in mind, Paul, on his part, fires off shots to those newscasters left and right who are seeking that one thing to upend him. The man appeals to the right, the middle and, holy smokes, Democrats. He’s libertarian leaning, and he’s the epitome of George Washington. Surely there is something wrong – yet, something makes him the best bet.
Ted Cruz, who one either loves or hates, is a firebrand who has his name mentioned more often than not and the Senator from the State of Texas who is righteous. So much so he antagonizes those that hate change (DC Politicians) so much that the fire barbs at him constantly, especially when he’s right and especially those in his own party. As to the Presidency, that’s iffy at best. Future Majority Leader of the Senate.
Rick Perry, outgoing Governor of Texas and a force to be reckoned with, if you’re a coyote, a GOP hopeful or a Democrat – it is what it is – he looks smart, he is smart, and he can point to successes as a Governor. Of course there is baggage - however, not so much this man can’t carry all of it. Should he run, he will be giving Rand Paul a run for his money. Keep in mind, the key elements here are someone who is smart or looks smart and can back it up, must be able to slap the media around and the opposition if they start getting testy, and does not make any bones about whatever position they have at a given moment. In other words, someone how is ridiculously honest and human, but most importantly reveres the Constitution for what it is.
There are also a few others who can jump in at any time, and announce, and of course, that makes it a game changer, but these are the current best known for being in the news, with the broadest base and the most support. Of the group 2 have potential to run through the primaries. The other’s certainly can run, along with a few that may muddle the waters here and there, but at this time, in this day, at this hour, those that do come forth to run, had best understand that they will be running not only against each other, but the National GOP, the National Press and the National DNC, and running for the people. In addition, they have to be able to bitchslap the first three into reality in order to truly appeal to those voters on the right the left and the middle who no longer care about labels.
However, that may have to be true for other, not yet announced or known candidates should this bunch decide not to enter the ring. This is especially true given the only one that even hinted at announcing, doesn’t’ stand a snowballs chance of Hades getting out of Iowa or the Carolinas.