Friday, September 07, 2012

AP Fact Check’s President Obama’s Speech – AP Defends Romney – Gallup Polling – Attempted Bullying by Obama Campaign’s Axelrod for Romney Lead!

The Obama-Biden Campaign Team Wraps Up the DNC Convention - image

The Associated Presshas Fact Checked President Obama’s closing arguments speech for a second term and here is what they found:

President Barack Obama laid claim to a peace dividend that doesn't exist when he told the nation he wants to use money saved by ending wars to build highways, schools and bridges.
The wars were largely financed by borrowing, so there is no ready pile of cash to be diverted to anything else.
The claim was one of several by Obama in his acceptance speech Thursday at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., and by Vice President Joe Biden in earlier remarks that did not match the facts. A look at some of their assertions:

...THE FACTS: The idea of taking war savings to pay for other programs is budgetary sleight of hand, given that the wars were paid for with increased debt. Obama can essentially "pay down our debt," as he said, by borrowing less now that war is ending. But he still must borrow to do the "extra nation-building" he envisions.

...THE FACTS: Some of the proposals the Obama administration has floated in budget negotiations with Congress would ask Medicare beneficiaries to pay more. Among them: revamping co-payments and deductibles in ways that could raise costs for retirees and increasing premiums for certain beneficiaries.

...THE FACTS: Obama has claimed an increase of some 500,000 manufacturing jobs over the past 29 months. But this is cherry picking by the president. From the beginning of Obama's term 3 1/2 years ago, manufacturing jobs have declined by more than 500,000, according to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Manufacturing jobs have been on a steady decline for nearly two decades.

...THE FACTS: Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's proposal is actually aimed at encouraging investment in the U.S., not overseas.

...THE FACTS: Biden wasn't referring to any Medicare plan of Romney or running mate Paul Ryan, but to the consequences of fully repealing Obama's health care law, which is unpopular with seniors even though it has sweetened Medicare in certain ways. A Medicare plan put forward by Ryan in Congress would have no immediate effect because it would apply only to future retirees.
(The Associated Press)

Well, knock me over with a feather!

In another recent development – The Daily Caller is in possession of emails between Gallup Polling employees and David Axelrod, Sr. Campaign Adviser for the Obama Campaign. These emails apparently are an attempt to bully the polling firm into a more modified methodology – especially as Mitt Romney was leading the President at the time – Gallup declined and has been threatened with a DOJ lawsuit. The DC goes on to suggest that other polling firms may have caved into the Obama Campaign’s strong-arm tactics and the result is more favorable polling for the President in other firms analysis. Read the entire story here at

Making sense of the polling data showing a dead heat for an extended period of time has been a bit mind-boggling considering that Gallup, which is the most conservative polling institute (and by conservative, the meaning is a-political, suggesting careful in their analysis rather than to the right or left), has taken year by year, state by state Presidential approval polls – all of which show the President with approval ratings breaching 50% in only ten to a dozen or so (in the most recent) states. This would suggest that the polling methodology would match a nation that is far from split or evenly divided – See Analysis on electoral college here here at this blog.

To maintain a 39 state disadvantage in approval ratings for a three year period of time does not bode well for an incumbent President, therefore, polling should suggest that the incumbent would have a disadvantage out of the gate, with any challenger. The polling should suggest the same, and likely voters polled on any given day would give the challenger an advantage an advantage in those states. In using data that projects a model that is not in line with the most recent national elections, either in polling and/or predictions of election outcomes by pundits (i.e. using data from 2008 to project 2012, rather than 2010 or present available models to project 2012) is creating the allusion that one candidate has a lead or is even, when the opposite is more probable. The mood of the nation has not improved since the 2010 Congressional drubbing of the Democrats, rather it has declined. To use older models, instead of current models, as was done in 2010, makes for a shocked nation that consumes the national news outlets when the election results are tallied. National or State “mood” at the moment generally trumps candidate versus candidate polling – the best example of which was the 2009 special election for the Massachusetts Senate Seat won by Scott Brown. The Boston Globe ran a poll days before the election showing Brown’s competitor, Democrat Martha Coakley with a 15 point lead – this poll was produced by the University of New Hampshire – In fact, the Globe was so convinced that on the eve of the election a screen shot of the outcome suggested by the Globe showed Coakley with a sweeping win! That was removed once the “news” of the screenshot went viral. The outcome of that election, with the dead voting and the ballots overstuffed was a 5 point lead for Brown. With the current mood of the nation, and the tone of negativity and divisiveness coming from the Obama Campaign, one would suggest an electoral projection that gives the Republican Candidate, Mitt Romney, a solid advantage at the moment. The fact that the AP was compelled to “Fact Check” the President’s campaign speech and honestly report the facts as have been suggested by the Romney Campaign is also telling. Whether the national news organizations will report this particular gem from the AP is another story entirely – and a screen shot appears below to confirm its very existence.

Finally the fact that the race appears close is favoring the challenger rather than the incumbent, call this assertion crazy if one must, but consider that in fundraising appeals from both sides – the race is a tie! This induces the recipients who favor one candidate over another to send more than the usual donation. In the latest FEC filings, the candidate that brought in the most individual donations under $200 from all areas, including urban areas where they have been weak in previous reporting, is Mitt Romney. Therefore, it appears that those pollsters who intended or were coerced (see Daily Caller) into a more favorable poll for the President have unintentionally helped the Romney Campaign – oh the irony.

AP Fact Check Obama Speech 1

AP Fact Check Obama Speech 2

AP Fact Check Obama Speech 3

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