Mitt Romney with his Wife Ann Romney celebrate Illinois Victory - image CNN
Mitt Romney, former Governor of the State of Massachusetts won the State of Illinois outright by a 12 Point Margin yesterday – Santorum took second place with 35% of the votes to Romney 46.7%, while Ron Paul placed 3rd at 1.3% and Gingrich came in 4th at 8% (99%% Reporting, NY Times) The Illinois contest validated Romney’s status as front-runner in what has become one of the most interesting GOP primary contests in recent memory. Romney prevailed, with a low voter turnout, and expectations that a split between the population in the Urban/Suburban and Rural areas at 50%, might allow Rick Santorum a stronger showing than expected – however, Romney pulled voters statewide, from all Demographics – which was a first for the man who had been rolled out as the front-runner by the Establishment GOP before the Iowa Caucus. Romney will add 43 of the delegates available to his tally, with Santorum pulling 10 with his second place – Gingrich and Paul did not register a high enough percentage in Illinois to be awarded delegates.
Exit polling in the first round gave Romney the advantage, the race was not immediately called, due to previous primaries where early exit polls proved unreliable, most notably Mississippi where Romney was shown clearly in the lead by early exit polls, yet lost the race to Santorum. The differences in geographic demographics also factored in the Illinois primary, with the Chicago Urban and suburban areas most like those same areas in Massachusetts, making this primary a must win for Romney.
Negative advertising may have played a role in this primary as well with reactions to negative advertising, and the sheer volume (Romney outspent his adversaries 21 to 1 in the Chicago DMA), playing to Romney’s favor, rather than against, as had happened in Mississippi. Public Policy Polling came within 3 points (margin of error) in predicting the win for Romney, also showing Santorum as his closest challenger, with Paul and Gingrich in double digits, but barely. This is now clearly a two man race, with Romney at a significant threshold going forward to what has been termed as the “second half” of the primary.
The question now remains, how much longer will Gingrich and Paul remain in the race, especially if both men continue to pull single digit showings in states that are critical. There is now no clear mathematical or theoretical possibility of either Gingrich or Paul coming in with enough delegates to force a second round at the Convention in Tampa. That said they have run longer in respect to historical odds than in previous races, where the GOP frontrunner is established by Super Tuesday, with one challenger going forward. In 2008, Romney was out of the race, endorsing McCain, with Mike Huckabee a clear number two, who stayed in the race up until May – in a clear attempt to keep the GOP party in the limelight despite the best efforts of the McCain campaign to end the race early and allow McCain to go on to fumble on his own – He was, perhaps the weakest candidate besides Bob Dole to be fielded by the GOP. Both Dole and McCain were considered moderates – as is Mitt Romney.
That said, the Obama Campaign is taking no chances, while in Chicago, they invited the Romney Press Corp to a briefing at the Obama headquarters, this according to Politico. Apparently the Romney Campaign was unaware that press assigned by news organizations to the campaign, was off holding a briefing with the opposition in Chicago. This briefing had left he Romney Campaign unfazed, understanding that the press is not going to show any “love” to Romney should be become the actual nominee (or any GOP nominee for that matter). The question remains, if Romney is the nominee, will he, like McCain disappear from the overall coverage once established as the eventual nominee, or will he make news consistently, to force the press to cover the campaign?
Again, going forward this is now a two-man race, with Santorum polling in Louisiana in similar margins to Romney in Illinois - Santorum should handily win this state. In this Poll Romney is tied with Newt Gingrich, however, Romney does have some momentum going into Louisiana, and may pull out a solid second, moving the margins closer to Santorum. It is doubtful that Gingrich would be able to pull out a win, given the polling data, and the primary history to date.
What this race has boiled down to, once again, is cash flow and the organizational structure of the final two candidates. In Romney’s case, he has continued to use negative advertising as his main weapon against any adversaries, with little else in the way of contrasting his performance with the performance of the aforementioned. The focus of late has been on Rick Santorum, who is the only other viable candidate in the race going forward. The problem with negative advertising is that it does not always work to ones advantage on the ground in each state, as proven by the difference between Mississippi and Illinois, that said, it has forced Santorum and his team to focus on deflecting attacks rather than getting out a message that includes tax reform for manufacturers, as well as strong positions on job creation, foreign and domestic policy. While fending off Romney’s attacks, the media pigeonholed Santorum as the “social issues” candidate, refusing to let go of a moniker, which belies the former Pennsylvania Senator’s record in the Senate. In other words, Santorum holds to his social and religious convictions with no apology, however, he separates the two when authoring legislation and or in his past votes.
Going forward, the Santorum Team must stay on a message that walks a thin line with Social Conservatives, yet pounds home a message of Freedom through a series of proposed initiatives that would reduce the scope of the Federal Government, allow manufacturing to make a rebound (desperately needed) in the US, and foreign policy, which the aforementioned combined are his true bailiwicks. In addition, defecting Romney’s attacks, although a necessity, should not override the message of the candidate, and finally, although Santorum has a stellar grassroots campaign, it is not clear if there are enough veteran campaign staff onboard.
Of note: Illinois was compared to Massachusetts, which is an appropriate comparison, despite the obvious geographical differences in terms of size, the states are simpatico in political make-up, as well as possibly competing for the title of “most corrupt state governments”. The individual voters are definitely more moderate to liberal, with conservatives being in the minority. A case in point is Massachusetts, where the Republican Party barely registers, the Democrats have a larger share (11 % to 35 to 36%), and unenrolled voters run either Tea Party, Conservative or Left of Center, or both (depending on the candidate). In this scenario, Romney walked away with the vote, despite the fact that on the surface it is one of his “home states”- it was more of an ideological and geographical divide, with Western Massachusetts showing more support for Santorum than the Central and Eastern portions of the state (One eastern County did give Santorum more than 15% of the vote. This allowed the more Moderate candidate, Romney to win convincingly in the Bay State.
The final question that arises is Santorum capable of continuing to compete against Romney in states going forward and preventing him from taking the nomination outright by June. That question is clearly not answerable at this point in the game. With upcoming primaries expected to split between Romney and Santorum for the balance of March and April. It is anticipated that Santorum will win Louisiana, however, the April primaries, for the most part, favor Mitt Romney: On April 3rd, contests in Maryland and DC (similar to Massachusetts and Illinois – although Maryland does have an interesting mix, given the upset by Christine O’Donnell over the moderate incumbent in the 2010 primary – if those demographics holds, it may be competitive for Santorum - DC should handily go to Romney. Wisconsin, a cousin to Massachusetts and Illinois, also appears, at this point, in Romney’s column.
April rounds out with a return to the East Coast in big delegate winner take all contests: Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware, again, more moderate/Democrat should be – Romney, and New York, with a heavy concentration in the urban and suburban areas that favor Romney with a large upstate population that would shift to Santorum, is at this point a Romney state, and finally the home state of Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania, should break for Santorum. This is based on the geographic trends in this contest to date.
Can Santorum break the mold? - Yes, if he can continue to raise the funds, if he can stay on an message that is top heavy on foreign and domestic issues, while including social issues, but not to the extent that has been played by the media, and finally, if he can contrast without coming off as negative in adverting against Romney, instead shoring up his credentials, specifically his voting record, and moving to the middle without alienating those large bloc of social conservatives who appear to be single issue voters. Play up the fact that he is the candidate polled that can best Obama in a national election would be pivotal, and the focus on contracting himself with Obama, in part, more than with Romney would shore up his campaign going forward.
Highlights of the evening: Romney held a brief and rousing speech, not before purloining Santorum’s latest message on “Freedom”, Romney spoke firsts – Santorum in his speech, opened with the fact that he had congratulated Romney, and that Romney had gone on to adopt his Freedom theme. He then went into an excellent description of the differences between the economic plans proposed and those in place. It was one which includes a nod to protection of religious freedom, but was top heavy on pivotal issues.
Santorum’s reference to not using a teleprompter could have been aimed at President Obama but was more likely aimed at Mitt Romney who also relies on Teleprompters.
Personal note: Although this blogger prefers Santorum personally, due to his economic, foreign policy and domestic policy approach, compared to the former Governor of the Bay State (of which this blogger can speak with some authority regarding the performance of said former Governor). It is imperative that regardless of choice of candidate, one must understand that both of the last men standing can best Obama in the fall – however, one can bet dollars to doughnuts it will not be the meek that prevails, it must be a candidate that stands firm, and that will take on the media, and the Administration based on Constitutional issues. It is this opinion; Santorum would perform better in that position and in the position of contrast when it comes to the debate forum. Perhaps most importantly, those states that have not participated in the process for decades or were not able to impact an election, are now able to do so, and they have two clear and competent choices – between a credentialed Conservative who has voted for the people of his State wile in the Senate, and perhaps not in line with the Party at all times, and a Moderate Republican, who is more apt to change positions more frequently than most, which may appear to be a personal advantage, or one which is politically expedient. Both men have worked across the aisle to move issues forward, however, one more to the left of Conservatism than the other.
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