Monday, December 19, 2011

Asia Upended: Kim Jong Il Dead at 69, Son Kim Jong Un to secede, Chinese Province Protests Increase, Putin ‘s rejection - Analysis


Kim Jung Un - youngest son of Kim Jung IL (aged 28 or 29) to take lead in North Korea - image New York Times

North Korea’s Leader, Kim Jong Il, died sometimes this past weekend according to the AP. An analysis by Stratfor Global Intelligence indicates that the nation may experience, for now, some stability. Jong Il had not chosen a successor from his sons, fearing a power grab, with the military the strongest ally to the ‘royal’ family, the younger Jong Un was only recently made a four-star general, having no military experience. The analysis indicates that for now, the situation should remain stable, given report that there has been no military buildup indicated by South Koran – this suggests that the military agrees with the transition from Jong Il to Jong Un. The nation of North Koren depends heavily on China. (Stratfor)

However, China is now experiencing some internal difficulty of its own. The richest province in the nation, Wukan, will see strikes this week with protestors marching on government offices – there are 13,000 residents in open revolt and they have driven out the local Communist Party leaders who allegedly have been stealing their land. They appear to have gained support from the general public. (AP). The demonstators are calling for free elections from the local to the national level, and are, for the most part, teenagers. Financial Times reports that this fact provides insight that the land issues with the Communist Party in this province has evolved into a question of the governance of the Communist Party. Two Communist Party officials, looking for more prestige within the party, are in a heated debate over the use of tough crackdowns on protestors, one suggesting the use of chanting Maoists Songs, the other advocating independent, non-government controlled groups, which is not a view shared by the Party, which would keep all power over economics and the Chinese people, rather than let control of any sort go to a non-government group. (Stratfor)

Meanwhile, over in Russia, Putin appears to be going the way of the free election, insisting that he would not win, even if the election were “fair” (Telegraph UK)

In the final analysis, it remains to be seen if these are merely hiccups in time, or if , from an historical perspective, the rule of dictatorships (communism, socialism) which allow the few at the top to profit, while the balance remain in poverty, (especially in the case of North Korea where it has used nothing sort of barbaric controls over its citizens), may herald the cyclical breakdown of these types of governments over history, some with the intervention of other nations (Germany under Hitler for one example), It remains to be seen if this is the beginning of the end of the glorified communist dictatorships that have existed since the 20th century.

North Korea, however, is a different animal, entirely, with a heavy military leadership that would have the power to oust a leader and become the ruling ‘party’. A situation that would be invite infighting within the military for power, and generally cause instability, especially if their main source of food, weapons and money (China) were no longer able to pick up the tab. All three nations play a huge role in supply Iran, and with these developments, that nation (one of the three Axis of Evils - coined by former President George W. Bush), may suffer both financial as well as the loss of its strongest international allies.

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