Is Mitt Romney David Axelrod's Favorite GOP Candidate? Image businessinsider.com
As the times draws near to the Iowa Caucus, New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, the position of Front Runner made Newt Gingrich the target of not only lower tier candidates such as Michelle Bachmann, but of the constant 20 percenter, Mitt Romney and his Super Pac. Romney, in his 2008 short lived Presidential campaign, spent millions on attack ads against former Governor Mike Huckabee, only to find Huckabee besting him in the end. He’s at it again, going full throttle with attack ads from both his campaign and his Super Pac, outspending all candidates in Iowa, with ads one might characterize as either misleading, or the pot calling the kettle black. Specifically ones Super Pac ad that depicts Newt Gingrich as a flip-flopper – a sample of an “approved Rome ad” appears below. Although it is expected that candidates beat each other up, literally as they go into the home stretch of any political party’s nominating process, there is that nagging though of “what if”.
What if Mitt Romney repeats 2008 and ends his campaign in March of 2012? In the course of his attacks, not unsubtle, he will have given sound bites and ammunition to the one team that has nothing on Newt Gingrich, one of the other top tier candidates. That would be Team Obama. Although Gingrich has been characterized as everything imaginable to make Romney appear to be more presidential, more acceptable and all major media outlet polls suggest that Romney is in the best position to beat the President in the general election, one has to step back a moment and take a look at the numbers to understand that any one of the GOP candidates, with few exceptions, could best Obama in a national contest. The fact that he is below 50% and consistently in job approval and by state is meaningful (see Gallup job approval), the fact that he would be forced to run on his record (given the winning campaign has the gumption to use the facts), belies the constant media drum that he may be difficult to beat. Pollsters tout head to head match-ups, giving Romney the lead over Obama (in some cases) while other candidates are apparently trounced by the President. However, the President consistently looses to a “generic” or unnamed candidate.
The explanation is rather simple, with only 7 million voters paying attention to the contest at this point, out of a potential repeat of 130 Million who voted in 2008(Politico), none of the GOP candidates has made the case to the entire American Public, therefore, Romney, Gingrich, Paul, are all the “generic Republican” at this point. It is no secret that the Beltway and the national GOP, would prefer Mitt Romney, simply because “it’s his turn to run”, and Romney’s record in Massachusetts as Governor is one which would make the likes of Olympia Snow proud. That said is he electable? - Of course, but so are the other candidates and one has to ask which one would Team Obama least want to face. The Associated Press did some digging and came up with that answer: One Newt Gingrich
From the Boston Globe via the AP”Dems: Romney is easier jobs target than Gingrich” explores why the Obama campaign would rather face Mitt Romney in a General Election over Newt Gingrich – apparently, the team has sufficient “opposition research” on Mitt Romney and nothing on Gingrich, especially on job creation.
While Romney and the balance of the GOP candidates focus their attention on Newt Gingrich’s social and political “missteps”, of which there are a few, no doubt, they are, for all intents and purposes, shooting one another in the proverbial foot. The polls do indeed show that the negative advertising and media support given Romney over the past week, versus the negative reporting on Gingrich, has resulted in a drop in the polls, but he is still either tied or ahead of Romney. An excellent article in the National Journal looks at all the polls taken in the past week, and finds that Romney and Gingrich are in a virtual dead heat with Texas Congressman, Ron Paul, in third, and the balance of the candidates hoping for a miracle in Iowa so that they can at least stay in the race until possibly Super Tuesday.
What we have in the final analysis, is a vulnerable President (despite the sudden uptick in approval, which, incidentally was similar in the uptick that former President Carter enjoyed for a brief time in November of 1979.), and a host of contenders, all of which are not perfect, but all of which are preferable to anyone who identifies themselves as conservative, be they Republican, Tea Party, Independent or Unenrolleds, and yes, include those Moderate Democrats in that group.
Going against the Beltway logic of a short primary and coronation of a GOP nominee by March of 2012, it is perhaps, more in the interest of the American Public to have more time with the candidates and a prolongs and competitive GOP race. This allows the general public to compare and contrast two or three candidates against one, and although the eventual nominee will be battle scared, they will also be battle hardened. If the eventual nominee is Newt Gingrich, then it will also be David Axelrod’s worse nightmare –as he will have to go back to the research team and they have, according to the AP, very little on Gingrich.
Here’s a thought, if the GOP candidate against Obama is imperfect in the eyes of some who are the GOP and GOP primary voters, then how much more imperfect is the President in the general scheme of things? Gingrich has held a variety of positions over a 20 year period, he also had a rather interesting career in the Congress, lauded and vilified by Republican’s (especially those on the same side of the aisle, for working to get things done and bullying them into working with those rascally Democrats) and investigated by Democrats! (Who understood that he was strong-arming everyone to get the job done.)
Therefore, in that candidate, one finds an individual who will go to the walls for the American People, and cross aisles, twist arms – something that should appeal to a majority of the unenrolleds and those who are willing to view bi-partisanship as a good thing.
The case for Romney is similar, while Governor of Massachusetts he was perhaps the most moderate of men, until it was time for him to run for the 2008 nomination, at which point, he became extremely conservative.
It’s called politics. Romney, in order to survive in a GOP nomination process, must flip-flop constantly to nullify his term as Governor of Massachusetts – a point that does not take away, necessarily from the man.
As of now, it is far too early to know what the “general voting population” will decide upon, except that they would prefer Brand X Republican to the current President. The fact that only a small percentage of the population has a clue as to who the candidates are does play a role (Less than 1/6th of one percent of the total electorate based on those who watched the debates (using ABC’s highest number, and those who voted in the 2008 election). It is message that will matter, it will most defiantly be the debate arena that will matter, and it will be advertising that will matter. The more positive and honest and the most frequent – once introduced in a contrast and compare scenario without throwing barbs, the GOP candidate could pull out a Reaganesque victory in 2012 – of course, this is at this point speculation based on minimal statistics, however, common sense is also in play.
On the one hand, the man whom Team Obama would rather have in the lead, or on the other, the man they would least care to face.
Sample Romney AD
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