Cain, Gingrich and Romney - the current top tier (missing from photo is Ron Paul) - photo: business insider
A tale of three polls: New Hampshire, the first in the nation primary, was polled a week apart by two separate entities, one, the New Hampshire Journal, in conjunction with Magellan Strategies, polled a total of 746 individuals, with 61% of those polled as Conservative, 34.4% as moderate, 3.6% as liberal and holding no 1.9% - the marginals and crosstabs can be found linked here at nhjournal.com. In this poll taken the 18th of November, 60% of the participants were Republicans, 40% Independents, which is not necessarily representative of total voter makeup (which is problematic for most polls. According to the Secretary of States’ website, after purging the voter rolls, the makeup of New Hampshire is 224,809 Democrats, 232,017 Republicans and 309,153 Undeclared. In this particular poll, Gingrich and Romney are at a statistical dead heat, with Romney taking 212, to Gingrich’s 202 “votes".
Looking to Suffolk Universities poll released on November 20th, there are slight differences in the marginals: out of 400 respondents, 58% indentify Republican with 41% as unenrolled, 47% Conservative, 45% moderate, 7% liberal and 2% undecided - Romney takes 41% of the votes in this scenario, with Gingrich at 14%. Interestingly, question 17 asks which Republican would best President Obama in the Debates – Romney and Gingrich both receive 34% of the vote.
With a heavier weight on moderates and more liberals in the poll, and a smaller sample, Romney has the advantage in Suffolk’s Poll, while Magellan’s larger sample, fewer moderates’ liberals, gives the nod to both Romney and Gingrich. As neither is representative of the actual makeup of the electorate, it is difficult to put a great deal of stock in either poll, New Hampshire Undeclared also identify more with the Tea Party. (Based on marginals from both polls having similar results).
CNN’s new poll on a national scale is a bit puzzling: The Poll marginals here at turner.com/cnn are based on a population that is centered in the South (zero respondents from the Northeast, West or Midwest, and neither from Urban or Rural Communities. Therefore, the poll is made up of Southern voters in suburban areas. Gingrich tops this poll with 24%, to Romney’s 20%, which is within the margin of error, however, on the question of Leadership, Gingrich polls at 29%, on the question of most likable candidate, Romney gets that nod, at 29%, on best chance of beating Obama, Romney again, at 40%, and Gingrich at 21%, however, the same sample used in monthly polling showed Gingrich at 5% - in October. Gingrich also takes the “Agree with most” question, placed under Romney and Cain in the “Get Economy Moving Again category, (again with a remarkable gain from the last months poll). The biggest gains come in the Commander in Chief question, with 39% believing Newt Gingrich most qualified, 43% believe Gingrich most capable to deal with complex issues, 30% that Gingrich would best represent the United States. With the poll make-up almost screaming "Country Club Republican (with Tea Party undertones)", this gives Gingrich a larger share of the block where Romney is expected to best.
Question #27 was omitted from the poll – which makes one curious as to what that may have been? This data did not include the demographic cross tabs. That said this offers up some interesting conjecture as to the nature of the Republican Primary and who, just six to eight weeks out, may win all important New Hampshire in the primary states.
Should Gingrich win Iowa, go on to win in New Hampshire, and then take either South Carolina or Florida prior to Super Tuesday, the momentum would be set in stone. Any candidate taking two out of three of the first states mentioned, is set to go into Super Tuesday with some sort of mandate. Romney can be expected to take certain Western States as well as Michigan, however, should he lose New Hampshire, the early writing will be on the wall.
With a field, however, that has seen ups and downs, up until this point, with one candidate after another ascending and descending from the top perch, Romney has remained steady in the 20’s, with no movement. This can be looked at in one of two ways. Romney either has a very solid base and will pick up momentum as soon as he hits the primary season, or Romney will stay at 20%, and be announcing his decision to withdraw sometime after Super Tuesdays results are in. With the south heavily weighted in that contest, it would be a nothing short of a miracle for Romney to take the South. Of course, nothing in this election season is out of the questions.
Wolf Blitzer will be moderating tonight’s debate on CNN, the network and moderator that has become the most distinguished, least ridiculous when it comes to debate forums, it is hoped that Blitzer will stick to the format and role he played in the CNN Tea Party Debate earlier this year.
What the above tells us about polling, a lot depends on the sample, the pollster and next week, all may change, however, coming out of the first three primary states, a definitive front runner may emerge. According to the aforementioned polls, Gingrich takes two out of three (New Hampshire and the South - most likely polled in Georgia - a Super Tuesday state).
Just a note: Real Clear Politics shows Gingrich leading in all national polls (with their method of averaging polls) with Herman Cain running away with South Carolina in the last state poll.
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