The GOP Field, (sans Romney), at the Iowa 2012 Thanksgiving Family Forum
A newly released National Poll by Gallup shows Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in a virtual “tie” – out of 1062 Republicans and Republican leaning independents, Romney Leads Gingrich by 1 point, however, out of the Registered Voters, Gingrich leads Romney by 1 point, with the next closest candidate Herman Cain at 16%, and Dr. Ron Paul at 10% - the uncommitted, or undecided’s are still fairly high in national polls, at 19%. This may be due to the difficultly one might have choosing one candidate over another in this talent heavy GOP group. With the exception of Mitt Romney who has failed to rise about the 20 percent mark in almost every national poll, the balances of the candidates have seen poll numbers fluid.
Reviewing 2008 polling, Romney faced a similar scenario, with a solid base of supporters going into the early voting and caucus states through Super Tuesday, where, at that point, it was evident McCain and Huckabee were the two top tiers, candidates. However, at this time in the race in 2008, McCain was still not considered a front-runner, although rising in the polls, it was marginal.
Therefore, with at the least 4 to 5 solid candidates and six weeks to go until Iowa votes, it remains to be see exactly who will rise – bets right now are off on the following: Perry, Paul, Gingrich, Bachmann and Romney in Iowa – The reason is the high number of uncommitted (or those having a difficult time making a choice in candidate, not as the pundits pontificate the field is weak, rather, the opposite, where there are several strong candidate from which to choose. A great deal will depend upon which candidate can rise above the balance in the key states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and carry a majority going forward through Super Tuesday in February.
Speaking of New Hampshire: Gingrich is now tied with Romney (Wall Street Journal), in what has been known as Romney’s “state”. Again, there are those heavy numbers of undecided, which may propel a candidate, otherwise “given up for dead” to the top. This is the case for any national polls, however, the New Hampshire poll is telling, as Romney has consistently lead in New Hampshire in double digits, this was prior to the insurgence of the more Conservative Tea Party movement in the state in 2010 and forward bringing the State of New Hampshire into the “Red” column, in both the legislature, Governors Seat and Federal offices. Romney is known as a more moderate candidate, appealing to beltway pundits, and the national GOP.
Gingrich, although having somewhat of a “past”, is in a unique position to take advantage of the current status. He played well to a large audience of evangelicals in the Thanksgiving forum on Saturday (link to video available on this blog), in Iowa, hosted by the powerful, Focus on the Family. In the instance of any infidelities on the part of Gingrich, going back decades, his evident faith and lifestyle, is resounding with evangelicals and those of other faiths, while to Democrats seeking an alternative to Barack Obama, it matters little, (see Herman Cain Sexual Abuse Allegations and Bill Clinton).
Additionally, the brouhaha some conservatives (most likely opposition candidates) are making about his firm consulting Freddie and Fannie is not universally accepted. The point being that his business (consulting) was hired by multiple firms, The fact that this is a public firm (and the questions remains why this is a public firm), has some campaigns complaining that Gingrich took the taxpayer’s dollars. However, when one looks at the balance of the field, Congressional Reps, former Senators and Governor, the only one on the panel who did not take “taxpayer's dollars” in one form or the other is Herman Cain.
The next debate is the 22nd, of November on CNN, and will, once again, determine the rise or fall or solidify the positions held by the candidates. With each opportunity to view the candidates in a debate and/or forum setting, those potential GOP voters (who were so intent on watching the last CBS debate, which was broadcast on CBS for one hour with the final hour shown on the CBSNews website) crashed the CBS News website – apparently CBS either was not prepared or believed there would be such a lack of interest that they did not believe that their audience would choose a GOP debate over a rerun. Go figure.
That said, out of the entire field, should Gingrich continue to perform in the debates, as he has in those held to date, one should see Gingrich’s stock rise. It is the fact that those traditional GOP voters, as well as leaning Independents, and yes, Democrats who are moderate, are looking for the individual who will be able to out-perform Obama in the debate arena – Gingrich is clearly capable in that regards.
No comments:
Post a Comment