The battle for 2012 polling favors Republican (unnamed) image Media.eyeblast
Looking at a wide range of polls at the beginning of the week, Rasmussen Polling (Conservative Trend), has the Generic (unnamed) Republican Candidate besting Obama by a 5 Point Lead, with seven percent of those polls undecided. In the Republican Field Sarah Palin, who is not a confirmed candidate (as speculation is rampant that she will enter), polls below Obama by 50% to 33%, with 15% preferring some other candidate and 2% undecided. At first glance, those are dismal numbers, however, Palin has an announcement that will end the speculation sometime in September (possibly), at that point, polling Sarah Palin will matter, at this point, it is basically gives the appearance that Obama can best someone with a GOP “brand”.
However, to lend some form of sanity to the polling process employed by Rasmussen, his latest poll shows Congressman Ron Paul, perennial straw poll winner, in a statistical tie with Obama. This begs the question: How did Rasmussen find all those random Ron Paul Supporters? Alternately, How bad is the state of the nation when Paul, a perennial Congressman from the State of Texas, a Libertarian leaning Republican who would close borders, and let the world implode, while focusing only on the Fed, ties the field?
Gallup Polling shows Obama’s daily approval at 38%, and Gallup would be considered a “Conservative Pollster”, (Conservative in this instance meaning cautious), this screams Carter territory with no chance for Reelection. Gallup on the GOP Field in General includes both those announced and unannounced, with Texas Governor, Rick Perry, who declared last week, rising in name Recognition. Of the top tier in name recognition: Palin leads, followed by Giuliani, Romney, Gingrich, Bachman, Ron Paul, Perry, Santorum, Cain and at the bottom of the pack Huntsman. Of those in this poll, the top two most recognized, have not yet declared. In reality, this is a meteoric rise for the Texas Governor, considering a week has passed since the buzz began.
In viewing the entire field on Gallup’s Main 2012 page, which includes all candidates (and not yet announced) in a file that can be exported, one finds that Palin’s approval stands (percentages), strongly favorable, 24%, favorable, 45%, unfavorable: 18% and strongly unfavorable 10%, she comes in third overall, behind declared candidate Herman Cain, who holds first in this poll, and Rick Perry, again in his first week out. What this indicates, is more than who is raising or falling in the ranks, but what type of candidate impresses GOP, a non-political class candidate, or more to the point “Tea Party” candidate.
Public Policy Polling (unapologetic, Democrat Leaning Pollster), latest National Poll, shows Mitt Romney statistically tied with Barack Obama, followed by Rick Perry (down 6 points from the President), Michelle Bachmann, (down by 9 points), and Cain (down by 10 points, but up from the previous week). Again, Palin in put into the mix, polling at 40% to Obama’s 53%, that said, the pollster indicates those numbers are up from 53 to 37% (Obama Palin respectively) in their last national poll. .
What this tells us is that three different pollsters, with differing ideological (or non in the case of Gallup) bents, all showing Palin in the field, along with Giuliani, and for unannounced Candidates, they poll well (despite what the pundits may spin). Name Recognition and favorability combined in all polls, continues to trend towards those candidates most recognized as Tea Party, which includes Palin, Cain and Perry. In other words, they are sick and tired of the Political Class.
The last words on Palin comes from Fox contributor and pollster Dick Morris and American Spectator’s Robert Stacy McCain, who’s headline “Still Waiting for Sarah”, is a must read. This is a first-hand account of events in Iowa by a journalist who apparently went more than the extra mile to try and ferret out the scoop on Sarah is an interesting take on the “will she or won’t she” media frenzy surrounding Palin.
Dick Morris TV Lunch Alert, is a mix of barbs at Palin (and women in general), with a special note to Palin saying, stay out of the race, on the one hand, as she is “damaged goods” due to intense media scrutiny, (seriously, he said that), and secondly, that it would be interesting if she did enter the race so there would be a “girls primary”. Seriously he said that as well. One cannot tell if Morris has a horse in this race or not, but Morris on reading tea leaves (or polls) has a record that is somewhat mixed.
No comments:
Post a Comment