AP-GFK Poll - Republicans More Vested in Current GOP Fieldtes – 43% Dems Included in Poll – Missing: Obama Clearly Unelectable

From AP-GFK Poll Toplines: Democrats Leaning Towards Republican Candidates - Image: From APGFK Poll PDF Toplines


From the Miami Herald – the Headline: “AP-GfK Poll: Most Republicans happy with GOP field” belies the fact that the majority of those polled were Democrat, or Democrat leaning Independents. The Poll toplines can be found here in PDF. Those with the highest favorability ratings in this particular schematic are: Rudy Giuliani at 50%, Michele Bachman at 35%, Mitt Romney at 39%, Sarah Palin at 36%, Ron Paul at 37% and Rick Perry at 33%. Rudy Guiliani taking a substantial lead in a Republican poll as an unannounced candidate gave this blogger pause. As a result, a closer look at the Toplines revealed the fact that 32% of those polled as Republican’s included only 9% “Strong Republican, as opposed to 43% of Democrats at 13% Strong Democrat, which skews the poll results if, in fact, this poll headline suggests a Republican poll only. That said, with favorability ratings at above 32%, one understands that Democrats are engaged in the GOP candidates. Are they more likely Tea Party Members? The Tea Party, much maligned by the press as well as the Administration and Democrat Congressional Reps and Senators, attract more moderate Democrats and Independents – although no official polling has been done, Tea Party Groups are a mixture of political ideology and parties, all however, are vested the Constitution and Fiscal Restraint, which attributes can be attributed to either major political party moderates.

However, if those Democrats polled are vested in Republican Candidates, across the board, then one has to ponder the fact that up to 18% of Democrats are seriously looking at the GOP field. If this schematic is accurate, any one of the GOP nominees would be the next President, which is in line with Generic Ballots from Rasmussen August, 23, 2011 Generic Presidential Ballot 2012, where any Republican bests the President by a margin of 48%, to 43% (Obama).

In addition, as of this week Gallup’s Presidential Weekly Job Approval, shows Obama holding steady at 40%, which is a low point for the administration. In addition, most pollsters understand that there is a 5 point deficit to that poll, including the margin of error. At this point in time, should the economy fare worse or maintain its current status over the next three to six months, it is highly improbable that Obama will be reelected.

Moreover, the AP/GFK poll headline should have read: “Across the Board, Democrats and Republicans are more Interested in the GOP field than in previous months” – a more accurate headline, however, unlikely to get any attention from the press.