Palin and Perry, once announced, field will tighten - image TexasGOPVote.com
Gallup Polling, perhaps one of the most conservative pollsters in the nation (Definition: Conservative: cautious number crunching that goes neither right nor left) continues to see a stagnant job approval rating for the President. He is currently at 44% approval with 49% disapproval, a rating that, in this “late hour” of campaigning for a job one already has, appears rather daunting. In addition, the Gallup “Generic Ballot” projects any Republican bests Obama by a margin of 47 to 39% (with 15% having no opinion – yet). This is considered with all due respect to the Office, a conundrum that is difficult if not impossible to overcome at this late date. Although pooh-poohed away by most Beltway pundits, one need only look at the current state of the economy, the stalemate over raising taxes versus raising a debt ceiling, (which, contrary to the major Democrat pundits and News Agencies of like mind, is not popular with the American Public, in poll after respectable poll), the continuous, almost maniacal support for the President by, what has become to be known as the “mainstream media”, hurts rather than helps both entities, as reports abound regarding high ticket birthday bash in Chicago, and his “expertise” at fundraising for his reelection campaign where USA today reports a “record haul”, meanwhile, the fiddler is playing while the economy burns.
This may be why the generic ballot is tilting more towards “any Republican” by the week, rather than staying stagnant, or declining like the Presidents approval rating. The question remains, however, which Republican? According to the same pollster, Gallup finds that 58% of Republican and Republican Leaning voters simply have not made up their mind as to whom they might support. A poll released July 15th, shows a field of no less than ten GOP Candidates (some of which are unannounced) plus “other” and “no decision”. In that field, Mitt Romney leads with 9%, followed by Michelle Bachmann at 9%, and two yet to announce candidates, Texas Governor Rick Perry (4%) and former Alaska Governor and 2008 VP nominee Sarah Palin (3%) hold the next highest slots in the poll. The pollster finds this puzzling because in prior years, there was a clear favorite or favorites early on, however, in prior years, there were not high profile candidates (Palin) who had yet to announce and not factored is the fact that there were simply fewer candidates for the office at this point.
Both Perry and Palin see August or September of this year as a point where they will either enter the race or no (the latter being unlikely in either case), which, as most conservatives and conservative leaning voters tend to pay attention to their choices, and what may come down the proverbial “pipeline” in a few months, would give those 58% (plus the 7% who are considering “Other”, new options that may just fit the ticket). In other words, they are holding out, waiting to see who is really “in”, and who may end up “dropping out” as the summer ends. One can hazard to guess that by October, there will be a top five, with two to four clear front runners. How maddening that Conservatives are enjoying the choices and the opportunity to examine each and every candidate.
Once all the announced candidates are headed into the first caucus and primary states, and the dust settles in February (Super Tuesday), one can then assume there would be a front runner or possibly two going into the spring of 2012. This will keep the Obama campaign on its toes and the media in a frenzy of “which GOP challenger to the President” need be attacked next. In other words this political season will be a circus for some and a joy for others – the others being those Republicans and Republican leaning voters who have choices.
Looking at the poll as it now stands, with the two not yet announced (meaning not yet committed to the race by most standards) polling at the top, just under Bachmann and Romney, suggests that once announced, those four would be the top tier candidates going into the primaries. As to the focus on fundraising that has gripped the media (Washington Post candidates expense reports), one finds Mitt Romney in the same place as 2008, with the most cash. What is most interesting is that several candidates have more cash on hand in 2012 that Romney’s nemesis, former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee did in 2008. Huckabee went on to stay in the race, while Romney dropped out in February of 2008, citing his need to “stand aside” for the “party”, while McCain took the evident lead, and Huckabee stayed in the race to keep the spotlight on the GOP and give primary voters in states beyond “Super Tuesday” a “choice” on the ballot. Therefore, money in the campaign, although important, need not be as excessive as say Mitt Romney’s cache, or for that matter, the billions in the President’s re-election purse.
Logistically speaking, the candidate that does emerge (or candidates in this case) will need to resonate with the rank and file (not the beltway or national party), in addition, that candidate must be able to carry the south and the west, most notably those states that have gained significantly in population – Texas for example. The eventual nominee will have to move through the south, and the Midwest with a significant lead(s) in order to cinch the nomination. At this point, were the election held today, one thing is certain, one of the aforementioned would be the next President and should the trend continue (and it is probable despite the pundits and cheerleaders), by August or September one will have a clear notion of who would be able to be the nations CEO. It will be in October that Gallup should be able to breathe a little easier as the field will have narrowed and those 58% will, for the most part, choose. There is no doubt that at least 18% (approx.) will remain undecided up until the bitter end. (Historical trending), choosing only in the final days prior to the actual primary or caucus.
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