As the “Google News Alerts” mount daily for one Donald Trump, real estate mogul, reality television owner/producer, and all around Renaissance Man, one finds his bid for the Presidency a topic of both derision and excitement. The derision is from those that would maintain the status quo, regardless of Party, he is too “right” for the Progressives, and too “left” for the Beltway pundits, which, for some reason unknown to any of those who would comment on a Trump bid for the Presidency, makes him perfect for just about anyone who currently dislikes politicians – from both the right and the left.
Public Policy Polling, a firm that does not hide its obvious affiliation to the Democrat Party, included Trump in one recent poll, the New Hampshire Republican Poll. The poll released on April 5th, and taken between March 31st and April 3rd, places Trump right behind neighbor and 2008 GOP Presidential Primary runner, Mitt Romney, by 27% to Trumps 21%, which is stunning considering: Romney has been open about his intent to run for the 2012 nomination basically since losing the 2008 nomination. Although not officially announced, he had been considered by pollsters to be one of the 3 top frontrunners (with Huckabee and Palin) since polling on GOP “potential candidates” began immediately following the 2010 midterms in November.
Trump on the other hand, made a few statements at that time about a potential run, and then went full bore the past two weeks. In two weeks, Trump surged past all the “potentials” to within points of Romney in Romney’s back yard. The pollster concluded that those in the GOP in New Hampshire must all be “Birthers” (or those who feel there may be something amiss with Obama’s Birth Certificate), due to Trump sharing the same belief (or questioning why the President hasn’t released a long form certificate.) In this particular poll, Trump is thrown in as an “afterthought” – the 20th question of the poll asks: “Here’s one last scenario: what if Donald Trump ran for President and the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump.
Who would you vote for?” – the Preceding 19 questions do not mention Trump in the list of options.
The following polls by this firm by state (having to do with the 2012 contest, both GOP and national), Georgia, (also released on the 5th and taken March 31-April 3), and Florida GOP (released on the 5th as well but taken between the 24th and 27th) make no mention of Trump. Although the firm noted, in an email inquiry, (paraphrasing) that it was waiting for Trump to seriously announce his intentions before polling him along with the other “potential candidates” (who have not announced), the strength shown by Trump in New Hampshire should see him included in all future polls, however, the language used in the release (he appeals to “birthers”) for example, appears almost to intentionally dismiss Trump.
Be that as it may, Trump is headed for Florida and will be the keynote speaker at a April Tea Party rally. Florida is a key state in any primary, along with Iowa and New Hampshire, where Trump has boots on the ground and appearances scheduled.
What happens when one mentions Donald Trump in conversation outside of the newsroom or the Beltway? “I like Trump – he’s not a politician”, “Trump tells it like it is”, “Trump knows business, and how to fix this mess”, the list goes on: Not one mention of Obama’s Birth Certificate, not one mention of a Cup of Tea with Donald Trump – mainly because those conversations are being held in Massachusetts and New York with a cross section of Republicans, Independents and yes, Democrats. The Donald crosses racial, socio-economic and party lines, in blue states where people have had enough of politicians. One might consider a “poll” of approximately 100 individuals, asked one question, not particularly scientific (absolutely correct), but receives the same or similar answer – “He’s not a politician”. Therefore, to those who would poll, it would be interesting to see how Trump fares with the rest of those who lead the pack of the GOP candidates, but have also, “yet to announce”, should he poll single digits, so be it, but it would be fair, would it not, to see how Trump performs in general, a poll the public has access to.
Donald Trump has, in all likelihood, not toyed with the idea of “running for President”, but has done his research, including internal polling. This may have occurred around the time he decided to tell everyone that would listen what he thought about everything going on with our country. What is interesting is that, seemingly out of nowhere, and in the space of two weeks, Trump, went from a “celebrity throwing his name around but not serious” to a man hitting every talk show, network and street corner.”. He had me at “put soldiers on the border”, and his attitude that America is exceptional.
Prior to that, it was difficult to take him seriously, or more to the point, there were questions on my mind that Trump had an ulterior political motive that had zip to do with the GOP, and possibly a Democrat candidate (see hypothetical blog post here: Trump and the Obama Birth Issue).
For now, I’ve changed my mind and, along with several other Bay State political junkies (from a variety of political affiliations), are waiting for Trump to make it official, in order to volunteer for his campaign. It is not about Obama’s birth certificate, nor is it about the Tea Party (although I do admire the Constitution and applaud those who put the intent of our founders first, along with our fiscal house), it is about who would be best suited to drag us out of the depths we now face, and has the will and the passion and yes, the arrogance (which is necessary, along with a little bit of crazy) to even want the job.
What to watch for: the Negatives which are sky high compared to one Sarah Palin! Consider those who continue to write about “Donald Trump’s Fake Presidential Candidacy”, and then bring up an issue that would put Trump in a category as a “Real Presidential Candidate” Negatives equal a threat to the status quo, be it right or left. Should Trump be perfect, absolutely not! As a moderate conservative living in Massachusetts, the fact that any one candidate could be perfect appears contradictory – that candidate could not be human. Trump, far from perfect, but making no apologies, is extremely appealing.
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