Massachusetts Redistricting Games Begin – Democrats Would be Best Served by Merging 10th and 4th Districts – Analysis

Odd man out? 10th District Newly Elected Bill Keating (D-) - Photo DCCC.org


In what the Boston Globe is dubbing”a game of survival” between the Massachusetts Congressional Delegation one name that does not pop up in the initial articles regarding the loss of one U.S. House seat in the Bay State, is that of newly elected 10th District Representative, Democrat Bill Keating. In the 2010, 9 of the 10 Congressional districts were challenged, with Keating invested in the most competitive race in the State; he narrowly won victory over Republican Challenger, Jeff Perry. Although Richard Neal (D-MA2) and Barney Frank (D-MA4) had to campaign for “their” seats for the first time in decades, they managed to garner a 10 point lead over their challengers, Republican newcomers, Tom Wesley and Sean Bielat respectively. (The anticipated outcome by the New York Times for the MA2 district was Neal 71%/Wesley 26%, with the actual results of Neal 57% to Wesley’s 43%. The highest percentage of returns went to Olver (MA1) 60%, Markey (MA7) 67%, and Lynch (MA) with 68%. The most vulnerable and holding the smallest district in size and population appears to be Keating – the 10th District, which is also known to be stronger for Republican’s, encompasses Cape Cod, and would, therefore, be an easy and natural merger with the MA4th. The Democrats do benefit from a bit of extra press, in all the posturing, Neal and Olver have received more press in the Local Media over redistricing than they did during their 2010 campaigns.

Democrats could easily “kill two birds with one stone” by merging the 4th and 10th, adding the larger Democrat friendly urban areas of New Bedford and a large section of Fall River to the smaller towns and villages on the Cape. One, they reduce the political opportunities for a challenger to the Democrat Controlled Seat, and would save the nation’s highest profile Congressional Representative, Barney Frank, from extinction.
Although rumors of Frank’s retirement have been constant over the past few election cycles, the legislator fought tooth and nail in 2008, and would, one would gather, be the last one of the current delegation to retire. Frank is a Democrat Icon, revered by the Progressives, and the target of Conservatives would focus on Frank in any upcoming election, essentially taking the heat off Representatives such as Tierney (scandal: his wife made the 5 top political scandals list for her indictment in a mob related money laundering schemeduring the 2010 campaign). Niki Tsongas (D-MA5) would be safe as the “token” woman, (Massachusetts being such a stalwart champion of women’s rights under Democrat rule.)

Deval Patrick, Democrat Governor, is still, according to CBS3 Springfield MA holding to the myth that the Democrat Congressional Delegation from Massachusetts will continue to have clout in the Congress, even with the redistricting. Although Massachusetts is somewhat of an “island unto itself”, and therefore, many who hold higher office may have missed the fact that the balance of the 49 states (with few exceptions), elected a majority of Republicans to the Congress, and almost managed to take the Senate in 2010. Those Congressional Representatives who survived in Massachusetts, including the Govenor, did so with either narrow margins (Patrick did not win a 2nd term by mandate, he won over Baker, by 3 points, (see addition of 3rd candidate, Democrat turned independent, turned Democrat, Tim Cahill in Governors Race), or with a lot of help from unions and community service organizations getting out the vote in a massive 13 hour attempt, as it appeared that an extra 20,000 voters were needed here and there in order to maintain the total Democrat advantage.

The Massachusetts Democrats, who pulled out of these races, went to a lame duck session of Congress only to find that the clout they once had, appears to have disappeared. Neal, (D-MA2) who was vying for the Chair of the Ways and Means, and then after the loss of Democrat Power, was vying for ranking member – lost that honor to Sander Levin of MI. Both Neal and Olver, however, are reliable progressive votes. Therefore, it would appear that the only reason one would consider eliminating a Western Massachusetts District over a merger of the 4th and 10th Districts, would be that one currently holds a seat out towards Boston, and Boston traditionally treats Western Massachusetts as a source of tax revenue, nothing more, nothing less.

That said, according to an article from PBS station, WBUR, it is Washington who will have the final say, not Beacon Hill. If that is the case, then the new Minority Leader, Nancy Pelosi will have some input into the decision as to which seat to “cut”. Considering how close the former Speaker is to Frank and Neal and Olver, it is doubtful that, if this is correct, any one of those aforementioned would be added to the unemployment rolls.

Therefore, as the Boston Globe and those East of the Worcester Line, begin to eye two Western Massachusetts Districts, for more taxes and a Congressional seat, they may want to take a look at the new kid on the block, and the advantages of a 4th and 10th district merger.

What else is in involved in a redistricting effort? There are state representatives that will lose “careers” regardless of which District is merged or redrawn, and this is where Beacon Hill comes into play. With the Governors ties to the Administration, as strong as they are, his stated “minimal” involvement in the process versus State Legislators slated to redistrict the Commonwealth, one would gather that his input from Washington as to who stays and who goes in Congress would trump any fights on Beacon Hill for state representatives positions.

Of note: Secretary of State William Galvin (D), has called for an independent counsel to decide the redistricting according to the Globe and was summarily told where that idea might be shelved by Massachusetts Senate President Therese Murray and Massachusetts House Speaker DeLeo. Incidentally, the Senate President hails from Plymouth which is part of the 10th District.