Embattled House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi - In Denial Avoids the Inevitable – Losing Her House Seat in 2010

Nancy Pelosi has become the one woman in American that those vested in politics, at any level; love to hate – even those from her own party. Pelosi, who made history by becoming the first woman to hold the position of Speak of the House in 2006, has, in that short period of time, become a symbol for all the ills facing the Democrat Party and the nation as a whole. Her particular brand of tough talking, partisanship which had divided the Congress and now the nation, has finally played out in her own district, where she is being challenged, for the first time in her Congressional career, by a candidate that is not only competent but stands to best her in the November 2nd, 2010 mid-term elections.

Although her seat has been deemed “safe democrat” by CQ Politics, that website has not updated the election coverage since 2008, therefore, it does not acknowledge her 2010 Republican opponent, John Dennis who has been endorsed by individuals and groups within the 8th district one would normally find in Pelosi’s back pocket. Therefore, from a “think tank” in Washington, that either bases their assessments for individual House or Senate Seats on the 2008 presidential race, (if Obama won in any given State or District) or the historical trend of the district for the past 8 years, is akin to “spitting into the wind” in order to make a projection.

Is Nancy Pelosi’s job safe? The answer is hardly safe at all. If it were, indeed safe, without calculating what is taking place on the ground in the 8th district, one might ask why embattled House Democrats elsewhere are running campaigns that either distance themselves from the speaker, or outright campaign against her in order to appeal to their suspicious constituents (New York Times).

Many of the powerful House Democrats, with a few exceptions, have sat down and faced the “music” so to speak, by engaging in debates with their opponents. One has to give credit to the MA4 District’s, Barney Frank, who has debated his opponent, Republican Sean Beilat, on several occasions. Although no public polls have taken place in the 4th district, internal polls indicate that Congressman Frank will no longer be serving the constituents of the MA4 come November 3rd. (Technically, any defeated incumbents will serve in Congress, until January when the new members are installed.) Some are given partial credit, for debating their opponents in safe settings, (pre-taped debates) such as Ways and Means Committee member, Richard Neal (MA2), who recently spent a half hour with his Republican opponent, Tom Wesley. Massachusetts, not unlike California, has, for the past 10 years or more, trended heavily Democrat, however, going on voting trends in an atmosphere that demands change, is ridiculous. Very few of these types of races have received attention from National Pollsters, believing that trends will prevail, over the shift in national conscious, (or more likely, the costs associated with taking such a poll and believing, based on the assessments of CQ, and like websites or publications, it would be a waste of money.) Polls alone, however, will not decide a race, and many surprises may be in store on Nov. 2nd (or 3rd for some districts).

Surely Pelosi is an intelligent woman who knows what she faces in her own district, which is why she has refused to debate her opponent, John Dennis. She recently took the time out to meet with Microsoft, a video provided below by the Dennis campaign on You Tube, shows Polis in that meeting, and when queried about the option of debate, she opined (paraphrasing) “she did not have the time, as she was busy helping other members get elected.” Clearly, she must have been reading articles that, for weeks have shown that those members are trying to run as far away from her as possible, therefore, Ms. Pelosi, in fear of having to stand on her record, in fear of losing her position, has decided to take the low road, and simply wait out the election process without giving John Dennis or her constituents the time of day. Nancy should, in a phrase, “woman up” and meet Dennis in the debate arena.

There are two reasons for any incumbent to do so, even in this environment, and without the cash on hand to run ads against her opponent (Ms. Pelosi, according the FEC filings has $140,161 available to use for her campaign and $0 debt.) Source: Open Secrets. Ms. Pelosi would at least appear to be fighting for her district and her constituents, and have the ability to at the least, highlight any positives she may possess in the debate format. Secondly, by not debating John Dennis, who has a clear on-ground advantage, she appears to observers who do not believe “all is rosy" with the Speaker, to be either afraid of meeting Dennis one on one, or so out of touch with what is going on in her own district, that she sees no need (goes to arrogance) to debate, believing the outcome would be in her favor. In this particular race, one need only Google John Dennis or Nancy Pelosi under the news heading and find local articles to tell the tale of what is happening in the 8th district. Parsing not only the headlines, but reading the comments as well, to understand that this race will boil down to turn-out, true, but also the number of Democrats and Independents in the District who are now looking for a change in their government.

The economy will drive this election, even in the 8th California district, as well as traditionally “safe democrat” seats nationwide. Therefore, for those Congressional Representatives who feel the need to avoid debates and the fact that there is a race at all (by working hand in hand with editorial boards at local newspapers) remember: at least Congressman Frank has decided to go down swinging which, in the end, will go towards his credit historically.

Video Nancy Pelsoi, on Why she Won’t Debate John Dennis, her Republican Opponnet