Dr. Jay Flietman - Running the Ground game Against Richard Neal - MA Hamdpen Second - image Jay Fleitman Blog
An interesting article in the Northampton Gazette , entitled “Shifting Ground: Local Republicans are energized, Democrats feisty as fall elections approach”, speaks about the political outlook in the fall elections, specifically in Massachusetts.
The author begins the article by noting the issues that are on the minds of the public: the building of a mosque at ground zero in New York, Rupert Murdoch’s donation to the Republican Governors Association and finally an aide to President Obama criticizing Progressive Democrats. The economy, including the fact that 500,000 new unemployment claims were filed last week, (with article published Friday, August 20th, news of increased jobs claims available day before), the angst over immigration and health care reform were not mentioned at all.
The use of Rupert Murdoch and Fox News as having made a rather large donation to the Republican Governor’s Association is interesting as it is basically a “call to action” for those on the left who tune in to MSNBC. Other, more informed news consumers, understand that Murdoch gives to both political parties, leaning to the left in the 2008 elections with the with the likes of then Presidential candidate, John Edwards urging Democrats to reject money from Murdoch.
Additionally, no word on the sixth Presidential “get-away” across the state on Martha’s Vineyard where George Bush “Miss Me Yet”, t-shirts are selling like “hot cakes”.
The article does nicely outline the differences in political think within the Democrat Party – with the battle between “conservative” and Progressive Democrats highlighted. The author quotes the President of the 100,000 strong PDA (Progressive Democrats of America) as saying nothing should be taken for granted and furthering the fact that Progressives want to make the national party more progressive.
He goes on to cite the 4th Districts, Barney Frank:
U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, of Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District, warns that progressive Democrats upset with the party's conservative members should try to defeat them in primaries - but only in safe Democratic districts, not ones that could be taken by a Republican.
In a recent interview with Congressional Quarterly, Frank added that if progressives have a choice between a conservative Democrat and a Republican in November, they should vote for the Democrat "but stick voodoo pins in him ... that relieves your frustration and helps public policy."
The Massachusetts 2nd District is also highlighted, with Richard Neal (D) being seen as “Safe” – in fact all but one Massachusetts district is seen as safe by political pundits who quote the “Cook Report”, a Washington Based political publication. Although the Cook Report bases its bi-partisan analysis on reports from those in the “know” in political circles in states where they may not have intelligence on the ground, one has to note the absence of any polling, outside of the Governor’s race, by firms other than those hired by candidates for internal polling purposes.
If all was “rosy” so to speak, there would be no need for Bill Clinton to come to Springfield to stump for Neal, nor, for that matter, Barney Frank to open a a campaign office in Newton of all places.. (Only two of many instances taking place across the Bay State.)
The Hamden 2nd, where Neal has run virtually unopposed (the true focus of this article), in decades, now has Republican’s vying for his seat, and they have the ground game on. In fact, newly former Democrats (those must be the “conservative Democrats to which the PDA refers), have “jumped ship” to the Republican side – which began with Scott Brown, and has carried through to district races. Democrat held seats “safe” in Massachusetts? Hardly.
Dr. Jay Flietman, who is running against Richard Neal, is highlighted in the Gazette article. It may be because Fleitman is the “hometown” Republican, a man who sat on the Board of Health in Northampton until relinquishing his seat to campaign against Neal. The fact that Fleitman was able to get to the Board of Health in Northampton (which is similar in political think to Amherst and Cambridge (see additional progressives quoted in the article, with one moderate community college professor thrown in who had voted for McCain) speaks volumes on the ability of “Dr.Jay” to appeal to a broad spectrum of voters, including Democrats. Jay Fleitman will face Tom Wesley is the upcoming primary on September 13th. There are multiple Republican’s running in all but one, one district in Massachusetts.
The question remains, how much clout does the press, or Progressives, for that matter, have in shaping the narrative on this mid-term? One has to factor in media, in general, and where consumers are going to get their news. The highest rated radio talk shows in Massachusetts include Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck and locally Howie Carr of WRKO fame, Fox News (although much maligned) takes the top spot in cable wars on a weekly basis (See Cable News Ratings), coming close in viewership to the national network outlets who, at one time dominated evening news broadcasts. A recent New York Times article, noted broadcast was down for all networks, by range of 4 to 6 percent To networks that, in the late 1990’s had 10 million viewers per night, the fall to cable is telling.
Consumers are no longer sitting back and waiting for their national or local news anchor to tell them what is up – they are literally “Googleing” for verification. Blogs, as well as alternative news organizations, including international sources, are now being used in an effort to get the “scoop”.
Therefore, the Progressives of America have their work cut out for them. For that matter, so does Bill Clinton. Although highly popular in Massachusetts, Richard Neal, is rather lackluster, more so this season than any other. Will these races be a walk in the park for those who rise to the top of the ticket after the primary? No - but these candidates are better prepared to fight the Democrats on their own terms – they may not have the SEIU out in force, (who’s members were quoted in the Brown election as having been paid to support Coakley, but were voting for Brown), nor the “star power” of a Bill Clinton, but what they do have is the ability to connect with the voters, regardless of party.
Therefore races will be close, in the vein of Scott Brown close – 2 to 3 points were predicted in his “win” over Coakley, a slightly conservative number.
Pollsters to trust: Public Policy Polling a firm known to lean Democrat, but who, in the past, especially in recent special elections, has been spot on. For a skewed view of how well a favorite candidate (out of Massachusetts) might be doing, Real Clear Politics offers a combination of polls, to come up with an average.
The people have a choice, in the Hampden 2nd – between an entrenched, straight party line, politicians who is obviously influenced by Progressives, as opposed to the majority of Democrats (one Richard Neal), or a knowledgeable and likeable physician from Northampton, Dr. Jay Flietman who seeks to bring a different, fiscally conservative narrative to Washington.
Herein lays the crux, “likeable”, it will boil down to retail politics, on all level, and the more appealing the candidate is to the masses now (progressive think), the better the chance of besting an incumbent.
As of now, one must respectfully agree to disagree on the notion that all seats, with the exception of the 10th District, are “safe”, rather, with Democrats playing defense for the first time in decades, it appears that these districts are up for grabs, and as conditions worsen, along with the rhetoric that all is well with Democrats from the local news, the face of Massachusetts is on the verge of a substantial shift in political think.
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