Election 2010 - Survey Suggests Senate in Play as Well as House GOP – Reality Check

Will Hillary Clinton be the Last Democrat Standing in 2012? (image Seve Colton blog)

Politico: A new survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies suggests that the GOP may pick off the Senate as well as the House in 2010. Poll questions were based on a similar poll commissioned by NPR from Greenberg Quinlin Rosner Research (survey here) in which it was revealed that in 70 of the top Congressional Races, the GOP candidate had an 8 point advantage. The Senate Poll is similar in all respects, from the questions posed to respondents to the outcome – conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (survey here) on behalf of American Crossroads, as one can see, it mirrors the NPR poll.

That said, the polls (conducted by, according to Politico, partisan research groups, one from each major Political party, both used the same methodology – basing each individual state/district survey on a sample of only 100 voters, and combining the individual state surveys in order to achieve a responsible margin of error. The latest poll based their targeted states on the the Cook Political Report (visit here) which offers insight into competitive races using “political intelligence” and is seen by Beltway strategists as exceptionally accurate when it comes to projecting political races. The latest, public release on House Races is available here from Cook and show the Democrats with 66 seats in play opposed to the GOP with 7.

What is of interest is that the Senate Poll almost mirrors the findings of the Congressional Poll – giving the impression that, all Hades is going to break loose that first Tuesday in November. Now, for the first time, Politico, as a mainstream media outlet, is acknowledging that the possibility exists for the GOP to pick up both houses in 2010:

It’s a hope so audacious that few Republicans will even acknowledge it out loud: the possibility that the balance of power in the Senate might be up for grabs in November. The GOP would have to take 10 seats, knocking off virtually every targeted Democratic incumbent and sweeping the open seats held by both parties.

Apparently, the GOP’s "audacious hope", so audacious according to Politico, that few will even voice it “out loud”, of a GOP controlled House and Senate, may be possible. However, it is probable? Absolutely, when one considers the general angst of the public, and the major party Brands being viewed by the populace in a polar opposite to the 2006 and 2008 elections. In the case of the 2006 and 2008 elections, the general populace viewed the Republican Brand as tarnished, by association with President George Bush and a dislike of Administration policy, as well as several ethics issues played out in the media (those having to do with personal infidelity, rather than criminal charges). What is amazing is the speed in which the Democrats virtually destroyed their brand whereby it is now in a worse position than the Republican Brand in 2006 and 2008.

The key to the overall decline in popularity of the brand is twofold: One, the administration led by Barack Obama, appears incompetent at times, and at others, willing to push legislation through against the will of a majority. This is coupled with continual attacks on former President George Bush, otherwise known as the “blame game”, a tactic that would have worked well in the first three to six months of the administration, however, over time, has worn old. (See Jimmy Carter, blaming Gerald Ford throughout his one-term presidency.)

It is mentioned that Independents are breaking for the GOP by a margin of 2 to 1 (Politico) according to the surveys; however, no mention is made of those Democrats who have either moved to an unenrolleds or Republican voter designation.

A shout-out from the Red-Headed Stepchild otherwise known as Massachusetts: All is not well in the land of the Democrat. When the State of Massachusetts has, at the least, 3, possibly 4, Congressional Seats in jeopardy, (this is being studiously avoided by both political parties and every single pollster and pundit outside of the state) to the point where Democrat Big Guns are coming in to plug for incumbents is indicative that there is “trouble in River City”. (See article this blog here which cites the Boston Globe.) If seats held by Incumbents for ten plus terms, be in enough peril for past Presidents to hit the Bay State, logic follows those polls taking place in specific districts are internal and the results are far from encouraging for the Democrats. If Massachusetts is showing signs of a revolt, it follows that those “swing states”, or states where a split in offices held by Party affiliation (see California) are also in play.

How late is it? It’s too late to stop this freight train of voter driven angst which is running across party lines. Nothing short of a miracle (another crisis won’t do), can help the Democrats brand in 2010 and, one can also now predict 2012 will be no better. The public perception has shifted to the extreme, fueled by a deep division in the “have’s and he have not’s” mentality pushed on the unemployed and overtaxed public by obvious public relation gaffes coming from the Administration. The recent spate of vacations taken by the “First Family”, specifically the First Lady’s trip to Spain characterized in the UK press as ”extravagant” did untold damage to the administration.

What to do to save Obama’s job? Answer: Moving from blame from Bush to Biden. A recent Wall Street Journal article suggests that a strong case is being made to move Hillary Clinton into the position as Vice President in 2012. This would serve two purposes for Obama, he would have a Vice President that was less gaffe prone than Biden (understatement), and he would have eliminated the biggest threat to himself and his Presidency from within his own party. Clinton, at this juncture, could run against Obama and handily take the nomination. In fact, depending upon who the Republican’s field, Hillary might be the only chance the Democrats have of maintaining one branch of the government. For Clinton to accept the position would be a disservice to her party, rather than, as noted, the calls for her “loyalty” by Obama associates. Time will tell (January at the latest), if Hillary Clinton will run for the Presidency outright.

Although it is most certainly amusing to predict outcomes or more to the point speculate on the same, the 2010 and 2012 elections will be by the will of the people, and with a diminished, but still influential press (includes both print and television media), it may end up being less of a route than anticipated by the pollsters and pundits, but, again, at this late date, not by much. In most cases, it will come down to retail politics, and the candidate who has the ability to meet and greet and cross a district as well as a state, will ultimately prevail, as long as they are not selling goods the voters have warned would be rejected.