Monday, June 21, 2010

Gallop Voter Enthusiasm Trends – Republicans Trend Highest In History of Pollster – Surpass 1994 Midterms by 17 Points - Analysis

A newly released Gallop survey on Voter Enthusiasm shows Republicans going into the mid-term elections with an historic 28 point lead in Voter Enthusiasm. The survey, which has been conducted by Gallop since the 1994 mid-terms, includes both major political parties and Independent “leaners”. Republicans scored a 59% enthusiasm versus a 44% enthusiasm by Democrats and Democrat Leaning Independents, compared to 2006, where Democrat Enthusiasm was at 50% versus a 40% score for Republicans. In 1994, when Republicans took control of both houses during a mid-term election, the split was even less pronounced – with Republican’s scoring 42% versus 32% for Democrats.

Gallops analysis cautions that conditions can change prior to the election, as in 1998, when the Democrats picked up seats and points in the survey just prior to the midterms, however, it is also noted that this scenario is unlikely.
Turnout being the key to any given election, the element of enthusiasm among voters is critical to a party’s gains or losses, and in light of recent gains in special elections for Republicans, in consistently Democrat States with a significant disparity in advantage for Democrats.

For example, the New Jersey Governors race and the Massachusetts Senate Race held earlier this year, were early indicators of the mood of the electorate. Although Democrats maintained seats in several Congressional districts, it was not without special circumstances that allowed the gain. The New York 23rd, for example, had a three way split, with Doug Hoffman, the New York Conservative Party candidate, a Republican Candidate that leaned left, and eventually resigned days before the race, throwing an endorsement to the Democrat, Bill Owens, who eventually won by absentee ballot In the Pennsylvania 12th, the Democrat, Mark Critz, ran as far to the right as possible, and in the district, distanced himself from the administration in order to gain the advantage.

The Massachusetts factor:

Although always knows as the Bluest State given the fact that both state and federal elected officials have, for decades, been Democrats, Massachusetts has seen significant political changes beginning in 2009. There are unprecedented numbers of Republican candidates for both state and federal offices, forcing primaries, which is not the norm. The Congressional Delegation from Massachusetts, which is controlled by the Democrats, has multiple challengers to the incumbent. An estimated 178 Republicans are running for office in a State where most pundits continue to nay say any advantage based on voter trends from 2008. That said, when looking at the voter trends from the January 19th, Brown-Coakely special election, one can see where, regardless of district and makeup - there are some significant changes taking place in the Commonwealth. Also significant is the fact that many of those running had made this decision prior to Brown announcing his candidacy for the open Senate Seat.

As Massachusetts was primarily used as a testing ground for the 2008 election of Barak Obama (See David Axelrod and his use of Deval Patrick (source: commentary 2007 at see Screenshot), it goes without saying that having had a virtual preview of “coming attractions”, should the level of enthusiasm in Massachusetts (for national candidates) be any indicator and/or have been exported nationwide (similar to Deval Patrick, i.e. Barack Obama) , the Gallop Enthusiasms tracking should remain even or even increase prior to the election. With the following factors: Unemployment claims continue to rise, a failed stimulus, unprecedented growth of government, several scandal, specifically paying candidates to stay out of races, and/or paying for Senate Seats, the unpopular Health Care Reform Bill, the situation in the Gulf, which is on day 60 something, with a lack of command from the oval office (see MSNBC).

Axelrod on Deval Patricka and Barack Obama 2007

In the case of 2010 and 2012 for that matter, Axelrod may want to go back to journalism, assuming of course, the industry still has a stomach for one-party reporting, and finally figures out that the Internet is not the enemy, rather, the perception of the public accounts for the massive decline in subscriptions.


Ralph Short said...

Somehow I missed this particular poll. Glad you reported it and wonder if it was covered in the msm.

It occurs to me the still vast middle class, along with those who are desirous of success and are willing to work for it are viewing this "change" as a losing proposition. Therefore they are looking for those with alternative ideas.

Just my own opinion.

Tina Hemond said...

Ralph, I belive your opinion is shared by many - interesting poll isn't it?

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