Will Massachusetts Go The Way of Kentucky? Kentucky State Senate Special Election, Republican Wins by 12 Points, Despite 2 to 1 Democrat Advantage

Kentucky’s state special electionslast Tuesday resulted in two wins for Republican’s, on in the 96th district and one for State Senate in the 14th District. The State Senate Race generated greater interest in that the District was thought to be firmly in Democrat control, (Kentucky Sec. of State)with a 2 to 1 voter margin favoring the DNC. In addition, the Democrat, Jodi Hayden outspent the Republican candidate, Jimmy Higdon, focusing on job creation, while Higdon used the threat of nationalized health care and invoked the name of Nancy Pelosi – which appeared to be enough to push the district in his favor. Meanwhile, in the 96th State Congressional District, Jill York, Republican Candidate, won the seat over Democrat, Barry Webb. This is also of import due to the fact that Ms. York, is the first Republican to hold that seat in over a decade, where Registered Democrats also outnumber Republicans(Kentucky Secretary of State).

According to the blog ”The Hill”: Kentucky Democrats blamed the losses on the fact that National Issues were made the focus – so what of the Massachusetts special U.S. Senate election? After all, Massachusetts is not Kentucky – Massachusetts is seen as a northern “liberal” state (if not the most liberal), and Kentucky, a southern state, whereby most southern states are thought to be Republican strongholds. Historically, the opposite was true, the southern states being firmly in Democrat hands until the later part of the 20th century, with Republican’s (abolitionist) dominating northern states. As hearts and minds changed and the focus shifted from civil rights to labor, the Democrats picked up advantages in the north and established a stronghold in Massachusetts.

With that in mind, by all accounts, Democrat Martha Coakley should handily defeat the Republican candidate Scott Brown, simply because Democrats hold a majority status in the state. (In Massachusetts registered Democrats making up 30 plus percent of the voters, while Republicans are at approximately 11%). In addition, Coakley is expected to far outspend Brown in the short time leading up to the January 19th special election.

All politics are local

That said Coakley had been running ads up to the Democrat Primary last Tuesday, ads that promised she would go to Washington and do the President’s bidding; specifically voting for Health Care Reform. This message resonated well with the Massachusetts base – but both parties are far outnumbered by a larger force in Massachustts Politics: the unenrolleds voter which makes up the majority (50 plus percent) of registered voters in the Bay State. There are several polls on the subject, with the latest coming from CBS: noting that American’s support the Government option and, on top of that, they are willing to pay higher taxes to make this happen. Other polls, however, appear to contradict the CBS poll, With the latest polls showing that support for the administration’s health care plan has fallen to to 36 percent. Who to believe? Ask newly elected Kentucky Senate Senator, Jimmy Higdon.

In order for Coakley to win this particular election, she will have to hope that the majority of the State Electorate is of like mind – that the unenrolled voter is firmly behind the President. If not, then Brown, regardless of a disparity in Republican and Democrat registration, and a smaller “war chest”, will make history as the first Republican to hold a U.S. Senate seat from Massachusetts since the early 1970’s. Contrast and Compare the ads below to give a hint of what’s to come. All politics being local, Kentucky and Massachusetts may have more in common than one would think.

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Martha Coakley on the Need for Strong Public Option

Scott Brown on Fiscal Responsibility

Scott Brown on Kennedy’s Tax Cuts