Brown, who has a strong grassroots organization has the full support of the Mass. GOP, which, on occasion, will front a candidate with strong credentials and a better than average chance of winning an office. Jennifer Nassour, Massachusetts Republican Party Chair, appeared on New England Cable News Network NECN) in the role of a political analyst, Nassour suggested that that GOP will be supporting Brown in this election. A statement released after the results by GOP Chair, Michael Steel confirmed this: (CNN)
Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, in a statement released Tuesday night, praised Brown, calling him an “accomplished Republican state senator with a long record of public service and solid leadership," and took a swipe at Coakley, saying she "spent more time planning a run for Senate than serving the people of Massachusetts."
Brown, with the support of both the State and National GOP, is a formidable candidate to take on Martha Coakley, former MA. Attorney General, regardless of the fact that Massachusetts politically, has few Republicans in office. (This disparity in elected officials political affiliation is the reason being given by some news outlets as to why Coakley will win the race). The race will not be decided by either Republican’s, who make up approximately 11% of the electorate or Democrats, who make up approximately 30% of the Massachusetts electorate, but by the majority – unenrolleds, who make up over 50% of the voters in Massachusetts.
The Candidates pros and cons
Coakley supports the Presidents “agenda” in a state that still give Obama high approval ratings, but, that’s where the honeymoon ends. Only 26% of Massachusetts residents approve of the Commonwealths Universal Health Care Program, and a poll earlier in the year by Gallop indidcated that in all 50 states over 50% of the respondents considered themselves conservative. That said, Coakley is a woman, running for the office of Senate, which should be a plus in this liberal state, however, that said, Massachusetts, as a whole has yet to put a pro-abortion, Democrat (or Republican for that matter) woman in an office higher than Lieutenant Govenor (See Jane Swift). Coakley does have governing experience, from her stint as the Commonwealth’s attorney General. The premise that women should vote for a woman simply because she is “a women” does not hold water in the bluest state, where women tend to vote for women who are qualified and will only chose a male should they perceive him as more qualified.
Pro-abortion – does it matter in Massachusetts? Historically, yes, the issue of abortion handed former Govenor Mitt Romney the governor’s office, when then Democrat, Shannon O’Brien, ran on a strong pro-abortion platform, including a last minute appeal to women in the state that included a promise to ban parental notification of abortion for women 14 years of age. Romney surged in the polls and took the office handily.
What of Brown? Brown is a moderate Republican, who is often referred to the conservatives in the Bay State as a RHINO (Republican in Name Only). Brown, who understands that abortion is a states issue, is in favor of reducing the number of abortions, and is against partial birth abortion and for parental notification. Brown has severed in the states legislature, specifically the Senate for for three terms which goes to experience. He is also not afraid to cross the aisle, or vote against normal conservative values, should he feel it would best serve the Commonwealth and/or his constituents. Additionally, during his stint in the Senate, Brown kept his constituents informed on all issues facing the Commonwealth through monthly newsletters, which were specific to each community in his district
Both candidates have an issues page on their respective websites:
Martha Coakley for U.S. Senate
Scott Brown for U.S. Senate
It is worth the read as both offer bullet points where they stand on the issue.
Can Republican Scott Brown make history as the first Republican to take a Senate Seat in Massachusetts since 1972? Absolutely, given the current state of the economy, his experience, his ability to reach out to all voters based on personal ideology, and most importantly, backing from both the state and national GOP, Brown stands to make this race one of the most competitive for a Republican candidate since memory serves. Coakley, who has the backing of the DNC, and endorsement from party luminary Bill Clinton, also has the backing of the DNC and the SEIU (see White House Union), which speaks volumes when it comes time to get Democrats out to vote.
One can expect the first polls to come out of Suffolk University within a week or two. When reading a Suffolk poll, keep in mind that 8% of the respondents in the poll are culled from the University itself, they run smaller samples (400 to 500 respondents), keeping the numbers of unenrolleds, republican and democrat respondents fairly in line with the Commonwealths Electoral makeup. One can expect the first poll to show Coakley with a commanding lead – perhaps. Should Brown start airing ads across the Commonwealth, now that his opponent is known, all bets are off.
As no-one has a proverbial crystal ball on hand, including the Globe, and company, it would be difficult at this point to predict which candidate will resonate with those unenrolleds who matter so much in the bluest of states.
Side note: the confusion of voting in the Bay State. Yesterday, while casting ones vote, a choice was given as to ballot, Blue for Republican, Red for Democrat! Freudian?
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