Obama Faces A Fourth Front – The California 10th – Local Media: “Race to Replace Tauscher may be closer than first thought”

There’s been a good deal of attention (for those political junkies paying attention) to three particular races: the New York 23rd Congressional, and Virginia and New Jersey’s Governor’s seats, but a 4th exists – the California 10th. The seat, which was left vacant (similar to the 23rd), when Obama elevated Ellen Tauscher to a position in the State Department. On Tuesday, California 10th district voters go to the polls to choose either Republican David Harmer or John Garamendi, who survived a brutal Democrat primary.

According to local news outlet KCBS the race may not be a given, even though this district actually trends Democrat. According to the California Secretary of State’s office voter registration in the 10th district (as of February 2009), counts 368,484 registered voters, 47 percent Democrat, 29% Republican, 2.9% American Independent and .58% Green Party and additional count includes 1527 voters of whom 19.8% are uncommitted to any party, Libertarian, Peace and Freedom make up the balance. This should indicate a landslide for the Democrat running, that said, as with any off season election, the get out the vote drive is lackluster at best (New York 23rd may be the exception), and disenfranchised moderate Democrats may be more independent minded as of late. (These are the type of Democrats that reject left of center ideology and spending - similar to Democrats who were referred to as Reagan Democrats in the late 1970’s - remember that little “revolution” began in California all due to the Carter Phenomenon.) The last polling found on this particular race was for the Democrat primary. This race, perhaps more so than the other three, bears watching. Should the Republican take a healthy percentage of the vote (45%), or even win the seat (which according to local media, is probable), then this would signal a real rejection of the current modus operandi in place in Washington. Of the "big 3" races, the New York 23rd currently has Conservative Doug Hoffman in the lead, Virgina has Republican McDonnell leading by double digits, and New Jersey is too close to call, however, the Independent Candidate (similar ideology to Corzine)has lost ground in the past week, giving Corzine a slight edge over the Republican - the poll was conducted by Quinnipiac and with less than a week to go 19% of those polled are "undecided" making this any ones race.