Ted Kennedy Requests Mass. Senate Replacement Rule Change – Duval Patrick Choices Should Change Occur – Rumored: Barney Frank to Patrick Kennedy

Possible MA Senator Joseph Kennedy - image: Boston Herald

Massachusetts Senator, Ted Kennedy (D-MA)sent a letter to Governor Duval Patrick, and Massachusetts Top Legislators, Therese Murray and Robert A. DeLeo, requesting that the Massachusetts law governing vacant U.S. Senate seats, be changed (back), to allow for a speedy replacement. The current law requires a special election by the people, with a window of several months between the time the seat became vacant and the election were held. The law was changed in 2004 – at that time Governor’s had the ability to appoint a successor, however, as Kerry was running for President and the Governor, Mitt Romney, most likely would have filled the seat with a Republican, high profile Democrats urged the legislature to protect the Democrat Party and change the law to insure a general election.
Why the rush? The general theory is that with Kennedy in poor health, every vote that the Party can manufacture is needed in the Senate for the Obama Health Reform Plan. As it stands now, according to most news outlets, the plan is in danger of being lost by a mere 1 or 2 votes, and, should the need arise to replace Kennedy, a stalwart Obama supporter is required in that seat to insure the Bill’s passage.

A few problems with this scenario: first, the bill is becoming increasingly unpopular with the American Public, according to pollsters, only 26 percent strongly support the current plan , which places any Democrat or Republican that does support the bill, and is facing reelection in 2010 in a very tenuous position - politicians live by polls. Secondly, the “Town Hall Meetings” on the proposed health care plan changes have been extremely well attended and very vocal in opposition to the program. These two factors are forcing incumbents to choose between their jobs (and in this economy, that should be a no-brainer) and their Party leader, Barack Obama. Therefore, the idea that Kennedy’s seat needs to be immediately filled because one or two votes is all that separates the bill from passage is problematic, as when push comes to shove, self-preservation trumps party loyalty (see Arlen Specter). That said, very little taking place in the political arena makes sense, so a hasty fill of the Kennedy seat, by any means, is on the table.

Although those key Massachusetts lawmakers are silent on the subject of a change, the odds are that Duval Patrick ( Gibbs, White House Press Secretary, noted that Obama hasn’t spoken with Patrick or Kennedy – other white house politicos are not mentioned see David Axelrod connection to Duval Patrick and Obama), will readily go with the program to “save Obama’s Health Care Plan”, and the Massachusetts House and Senate leaders, are prone to go with the party, regardless of any consequences (especially in Massachusetts where the Democrats have enjoyed a majority for decades). Therefore, watch in coming weeks for a replacement to be named to fill Kennedy’s seat – the question remains who will become the new Democrat Senator from Massachusetts?

The speculation that Ted Kennedy’s seat would be filled by another Kennedy (maintaining the political dynasty) has been rampant since Kennedy first showed signs of an illness. The two top choices have been his wife, Victoria and his nephew, Joseph P. Kennedy – this make sense from a Massachusetts perspective, but does it make sense from a perspective of who is most likely to tow the line and have the clout to convince others to do the same? That leaves few key Democrats in Massachusetts with the credentials. The few that come to mind are from the U.S. House: Richard Neal (D-MA), Second District, Ed Markey, (D-MA), 7th District and Barney Frank (D-MA, 4th district. Both Neal and Markey are staunch supporters of the Party, but less high profile and or public than most in Washington, preferring to vote consistently with the Party – either one would insure a vote, but would either have the ability to bring along another Democrat (which is what is needed here), who might be wavering on the proposed plan? That’s questionable. The only one that comes to mind (and there may be others, but “stars” in Massachusetts politics are a rarity outside of the State,) is 4th District U.S. Representative, Barney Frank.

Frank, who recently held a forum in Dartmouth that addressed the Health Care Plan (among other issues), ran the forum in vintage Frank style, going so far as to insult those constituents who came to protest health care reform, and focusing instead on the “benefits” of the plan, how he would do what he felt was best, and of course, on other issues, the problems caused by the Bush administration. In Massachusetts, regardless of party, one must play to the majority of registered voters: the independent. Frank played to the base. Additionally, Frank is up for re-election in 2010, but has yet declared his intent to run, and most telling some Massachusetts political insiders suggest Frank is headed to the Senate , which is why he has yet declared his candidacy. Granted, the aforementioned, is more rumor than fact, yet, what better choice is there? Frank is a key player in the Obama administration, a prominent Soros type Progressive, who is politically savvy, and has the backing of his party and the press (in most cases). He is not a shy man, and would, most likely, use everything in his arsenal to squeeze any wayward Democrat into seeing things his way. From a purely strategic point of view, he’s a prime candidate. That said, this being Massachusetts, and the Kennedy’s being the Kennedy’s, one can well-imaged that Dynasty may win out over pragmatics. Regardless of the choice, this will be an extremely interesting political play to watch. The drama, the possibility of State party maneuvering, intervention from national Democrats and the eventual choice makes for reality television at its best.