As America Turns – Polls Suggest The Political Pendulum Swings in Favor of Conservatism in Government - Reid, Dodd, Boxer - Out - Analysis

Several polls released over the past two months suggest that, against all odds (as purported by the media, pundits and the current political party in charge), there will be a change or elimination of Party control over one or both houses of Congress in 2010. The polling to date, which is reminiscent of polls taken in 2005-2006 and again in 2007-2008, shows either a total or growing lack of support for an incumbent – which is not historically unusual when one political party controls all branches of government.

High profile Democrats who are most likely to be replaced in 2010 include:
Barbara Boxer (Senate: D-CA) who is holding onto a narrow margin against a yet-undeclared, Carly Fiorina. Fiorina, former Hewlett Packard CEO, is currently polling at 41% to Boxers 45% (Rasmussen, an increase over a previous poll taken in March (Boxer 47%/Fiorina 38%).

Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader, (D-NV), is most likely to be replaced by Republican Sue Lowden, who is polling ahead of Reid by 6 points (and has yet to formally enter the race). Reid’s popularity with Nevada voters is low - 45% of voters polled would replace him.

The list from Real Clear Politics (a compilation and average of several pollsters per candidate) is telling:

Chris Dodd (Senate: D-CT), is trailing Republican Rob Simmons by 1 to 9 points (Quinnipiac), the only discrepancy is a Daily Koss Poll which gives Dodd 5 points over Simmons.

Christ handily bests Democrat Kendrick Meek in Florida’s Senate Race by 18 to 31 points.

In Illinois, Mark Kirk, Republican, is besting incumbent Burris for the Senate by 34 points, the Daily Koss poll suggests that Burris is besting Kirk by 7 points (a pattern is developing here).

In Pennsylvania, Toomey (Republican) bests Specter (former Republican turned Democrat) by 12 points (Koss has Specter beating Toomey by 5 points).

Of interest, general polling regarding current issues also suggests a turn towards conservatism:
Regarding the proposed Health Care Reform 54 % of American’s feel passing no reform would be better than the current congressional plan., and a new Gallup Poll suggests that American’s view themselves more as conservatives in all 50 states.

Some may suggest that this trend towards Republicans and Conservatism in general has been brought about by the current administrations programs, which run left of center, which may, in part, be true. That said, with the thirst for change constant in most American’s minds, those who don’t eat, breathe and live for politics (the majority) may be viewing the political arena in terms of a reality television show. As the personalities of politician’s morphed into “Star Status”, the opportunity for the general public to become disenfranchised rose proportionately. Once the charisma of any given personality loses its luster, the public turns to the next “contestant”, literally voting the “star” (incumbent) off the island. Although some progressives in education assert that control of the masses (and control of the votes), by dumbing down America, would ensure a change in government; the miscalculation of the appeal of quick changes and celebrity fascination with quick dismissal, never entered into the equation. More to the point, the American Independent Voter, once again, believed a political campaign promises (or slew of promises), and as these promises evaporated, or have not taken place at lightning speed (which would be impossible); they have shifted focus to the opposing party.