Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Rob Simmons raises $750,000 in first quarter to run against Incumbent Chris Dodd

The Hartford Courantis reporting that Republican, Rob Simmons, has raised $750,000 in the first quarter in his quest to unseat Senator Christopher Dodd (D), of mortgage and other financial disasters fame. Simmons, a former U.S. House member from Connecticut’s 2nd District, is well-qualified to unseat Dodd, who has fared poorly in polls to date. The Courant's article also points to the two other candidates who are seeking Dodd’s seats:

The total is higher than those of Simmons’ main rivals, Greenwich millionaire Tom Foley has raised $530,000 and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri has raised about $125,000.

Dodd, according to the Chicago Tribune has raised approximately $1.2 million dollars, thus far.

The lyrics from the Beatles’ Tune may fit this particular race, as well as other challenged Democrat incumbents around the country: “Money can’t buy me love”. (i.e. votes) Polls suggest this may be the case - and now Dodd is bringing in the very senior Senator from Massachusetts, Ted Kennedy to help him win back the hearts and minds of the Connecticut voters - . One will have to see how much of an impact that the Kennedy brand will have upon Dodd’s numbers, not in terms of cash on hand, rather in terms of re-branding. Should Dodd’s numbers continue to falter (and one can hazard to bet that his numbers may receive a slight improvement among “party committed” (faithful), but not those moderate Democrats and Unenrolleds (the later quickly becoming the majority non-party), it will spell trouble for the Democrats nationwide. Understandably that’s a lot of pressure to put on the aging Kennedy, but without the machinations of Kennedy and Kerry, Obama would still be the Junior Senator from Illinois, something that is not lost on a good percentage of the electorate who are now experiencing “buyer’s remorse.

That particular breed of electorate, are not only living inside the State of Connecticut, but in every state of the union that has tagged Dodd as responsible (in part) for the financial mess, and they are so committed to seeing certain sitting Democrats ousted, they are sending cash to opposition candidates they can find, and this is coming in from every state in the union. There are certain races, across the nation, that are garnering national attention and Dodd is a natural, along with Barney Frank, (D-MA), Harry Reid (D) Nevada, and yes, even Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). The two key “Public Enemies”, however, remain Dodd and Frank, as far as economics are concerned – with Reid and Pelosi, it goes to policy and the perceived inability to govern effectively.

The myth that Cash on Hand will automatically equal a win, has been dispelled in recent history by a Republican Match-up in the 2008 general election. Recall Iowa and the extremely well funded Republican, Mitt Romney up against the former Govenor from Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, who had support but little cash on hand. The Iowa Caucus is a blueprint for those who want to understand how to beat the almighty dollar on a shoestring. Romney poured millions into the Iowa Caucus, while Huckabee spent under $100,000. If one were to believe the media mantra - cash equals a win, then Mitt Romney by those standards should have had the Republican nomination in 2008. Apparently, one can have all the money in the world, but without the support of the people on the ground, it is just so much paper. Therefore the candidate who has the most credibility and grassroots support, and some cash on hand will triumph over the well-funded opponent. When one adds an overall distaste for the incumbent, as in Dodd’s case, the incumbent becomes the long-shot.

So what is a Senator, who is looked upon by most constituents as “most likely to be unemployed” to do? Practice a concession speech.

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