Barack Obama with Reid, Frank and Dodd - image Zimbio, Alex Wong/Getty Images North America
Poll data released yesterday by Rasmussen, shows a continual decline in the Presidents’ “Strongly Approves” – he is now at 28% - (voters who strongly approve) – down from a high of 45% on January 21, 2009. The strongly disapproves has risen from a low of 14% on the 22nd of January to 35 and 37% in the past week. There is no indicator of the somewhat approves and disapproves ( total percentage) that is factored into the final results – however, once the number of strongly approves falls below 35% (estimated number of enrolled Democrats nationwide), it is evident that Obama has lost some of his base, and it goes without saying that he has almost no support from conservatives (Republican’s, Libertarians) and may have already lost the all –important “unaffiliated” vote.
Of more import to trends, the Presidents falling approval is impacting the 2010 election - In a generic congressional poll released on 7-July, 41% of those polled would support a Republican, compared to 38% who would support the Democrat running in any particular district. What this tells us, historically, is that Barack Obama is to incumbent Democrat Congressional Leaders, what George W. Bush was to his party members in the 2006 general election – resulting in a sweep of the congress and senate. It is not necessarily true that the burden alone falls to the man at the top of the Party (note: citing presidents are the head of their party, essentially above the party chair - see Republican Chair Michael Steele, who was elected to the position vacated, in essence by President George Bush. ) it is the fact that the entire “brand” becomes tarnished over time, be it through a hostile media (as in the case of George Bush), or through programs and policies that run contrary to the majority of the populace (which is moderate – trending conservative but not extreme to either party ideology).
Therefore, regardless of the pollster, there will be seats that are now considered “safe” that may end up being held by a different party. Some of the more interesting races in the nation (those drawing interest from outside their own states – are the architects of the financial crisis, Barney Frank, Congressional Representative, 4th District Massachustts, and Chris Dodd, Senator, Connecticut. Harry Reid has also seen a decline in the polls in his state, and is considered vulnerable – the reason being, these three in particular have received an unusual amount of “negative” press in general – with the exception of Frank who seems to sit on the board of all news organizations in the 4th district. (Note: it is not unusual for a congressional representative or Senator to meet with an editorial board and give them their “talking points”.) Although for the most part, these seats are considered safe due to the ability of the incumbent to amass a large “war chest” in comparison to the challenger, one must understand that as this is a national race, funds to challengers are on the rise, and early in the game. As an example: in Frank’s case, the challenger, Earl Sholley is receiving help from people outside the state who view Frank most unfavorably. Sholley has been on the campaign trail early, being invited to take part in events both inside and outside the Bay State – the fact that these invitations are early and this campaign has gotten off the ground this soon in the general scheme of things, is telling. (Although, one should wait for defined polls of the 4th Massachusetts district, which will not be available until 2010, (Polls released earlier will automatically show incumbents as “Safe Democrat” - based on Massachusetts historical voting trends.) to understand the nature of branding a candidacy. It is safe to say, at this point, the likelihood of that scenario being played out across the nation is more probable than not. 2010 will also be the point in time when some indications of which candidates will be interested in seeking the job in the White House will begin to take shape. Those names that are bandied about this early in the game, historically, do not either appear on the stage in 2011.
As far as Obama’s poll numbers are concerned, he is almost in line with former President Jimmy Carter, whose approval ratings showed a steep decline after 18 months in office – primarily driven by the economy and bailout of auto makers and yes, a stimulus program which resulted in rather large deficits. Therefore it is no wonder that the phrase “Republicans smell blood” is fitting, in an historical context.
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