Déjà vu – Presidential Debates 2004 and 2008 – Polls Eerily Similar

CNN McCain-Obama post debate coverage places one in a time-warp of sorts – the statistics on which candidate won the debate are strangely similar to those given following the 2004 Kerry-Bush debate. “Fifty-eight percent of debate watchers questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll said Democratic candidate Obama did the best job in the debate, with 31 percent saying Republican Sen. John McCain performed best.” (CNN) Contrast this from last night to reports following the 2004 Debate found at Bloomberg.com
“CBS said its poll of uncommitted voters found 39 percent said Kerry performed better, 25 percent picked Bush and 36 percent called the results a tie. CNN said Kerry won by 52 percent to 39 percent. The poll for CNN and USA Today by the Gallup Organization surveyed 511 registered voters and had a 5 percentage point margin for error. “ (Bloomberg)
There was a good deal of punditry after each debate between the two candidates, and in each instance, Kerry was found to be more “presidential” than the incumbent George Bush. Further, Kerry was also more “in touch” with the middle class. Go figure.
The CNN, New York Times, CBS and DNC game plan has not changed a great deal over the past 4 years, apparently so little that they could virtually recycle articles, plugging in Obama for Kerry.
Herein lies the problem with an attempt to sway the “court of public opinion”, it did not work in 2004, and it is unlikely to work in 2008. The reason is clear; the electorate has not changed a great deal in four years. It was supposed to be the “Year of the Democrat” (again all pundits are still pointing to this as the reason that Obama will win – along with these nifty post-debate polls), however, the reasons for it being the year of the Democrat appear to change with current events. First it was the Iraq War – Obama would win due to the dismal failure in Iraq. Since that did not work out quite so well for the Press and or the Obama Campaign, they had to focus on the Economy. Apparently, Democrats do well in Economic downturns. 2004 Political Economic Forecast: ” In 1992, Bill Clinton famously ascended to the presidency with an unofficial campaign slogan: It's the economy, stupid. Now, Americans weary of war and wary of terrorism face an election in which the economy -- by far the most important domestic issue -- largely has been kept on the sidelines. The economy is President Bush's most significant domestic weakness, and it has the potential to be Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry's greatest strength.”
There are virtually no significant differences in the rhetoric used by the media and the campaigns in 2004 and 2008. Most voters have had their minds made up; and those that are being touted as “Independent voters” lean towards one party or the other. According to there has been virtually no change in the electorate in the last 3 election cycles (including 2008). Therefore, the race will be close; despite an apparent edge in the polls given to Obama, McCain, like Bush (here is where the resemblance ends), will, if these statistics hold true (and they should) be elected President on Nov. 4th.
2008 Conservative Feminist Debate Analysis: While Obama gets definite points for being a smooth talker, he lacks substance in most areas, and went on the attack more often than McCain (but did so seamlessly), also, McCain did not have the benefit of feeding talking points to the media preceding the debate (From Drudge Report email released to media pre-date: from: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 09:37:27 -0500 From: Sean Smith [s***mith@barackobama.com] Obama made several misstatements during the debate, specifically regarding his position in the Illinois Senate on Abortion and his continued denial of voting for tax cuts on those making $43,000 per year. McCain, on his part, did bring up Bill Ayers, as well as ACORN and the fact that the Obama campaign paid $800,000 to that organization in order to get out the vote – he also appeared tired, after a hard day on the campaign trail. He should have gone farther on several points, following up when Obama denied something patently false – instead, McCain gave Obama a pass, more civil. Obama won the debate based on his looks and his eloquence, and McCain won based on substance. Will this debate be enough to change minds? – Not likely. The independents do factor into the general election, but to the same degree they factored in 2004.

A Note: Should the military absentee ballots be included in this election (unlike 2004), the 68% of the military polled (assuming that polling is correct), that support McCain, and those that support Obama, should have their vote counted. With an election this close and with ACORN driven fraud prevalent in all swing states, waiting to count the vote of our Military should be a priority. Depending upon the state where the absentee ballot is cast, it could swing the Electoral College for either candidate.