The General Election – Division and Labels – Does it Ever Change?

Partisanship is the word of the day, (or has been since Barack Obama secured the nomination) - what one has to expect when two opposing political parties are campaigning for any office, that people will chose sides, it is expected. With each election the rhetoric is the worst it has ever been, the campaign advertisements are the worst they have ever been, and the polls are watched as if they are fact, not probability based on a small sample (generally 400 to 2,000 participants) of those who indicate they are most likely to vote. Pundits on both sides spar endlessly on the evening news and talk show circuits, extolling the virtues of their candidate and the vice of the opposition.

This year, it appears that partisanship has indeed risen to new heights, the media is more aggressive, op-ed pages are filled with hate couched in elite humor the “Non-Profit” organizations more aggressive in their “get out the vote” efforts. Has partisanship risen to new levels, or is it that the optimal conditions for one party over another, proven a bit overblown, and now, they must work harder to achieve their goals. Why is it that with an unpopular war, and the economy in a downturn, that Obama has still not sealed the deal, so to speak, with the media pushing as hard as it can to put him over the top? The answer is fairly simple, the electorate has not changed, not one bit, in four years. The country is still divided; however, it is not divided down the middle. Enter The Terrance Group and the Battleground Polls. This is the only poll that asks which way one’s political point of view leans, and surprisingly, one figure has remained consistent over the years, and that it the percentage of Americans who consider themselves “conservative”. Over 50% of the electorate still considers itself to be conservative, while 30% consider themselves to be liberal, and the balance leaning one way, or the other. Those inclined to live by polls, including those who had John Kerry changing the White House drapes by Mid-October, 2004, had apparently ignored the Battleground statistics. Full Battleground tables here The conservatives will elect a Moderate Democrat (A Clinton for example), but will not embrace a liberal thinker – go figure.

What is the influence on the American electorate? Morality and the ideology of Patriotism are clearly driving the voting patterns on both sides. Voters Guides are available for religious conservatives while those that feel religion should be left out of politics entirely turn to sor the Paper of Record, and or Katie Couric. One might argue, however, that the nation was founded upon the principals of religion; those who departed the Mayflower at Plymouth were seeking the freedom to worship outside the constraints of the Church of England, and God has played a pivotal role in every decision made in the foundation of this nation. One on the left could argue that the New York Times is also doing its part.

Will there be change, certainly, one or the other of these two candidates will be elected on the 4th of November, and as neither the Times nor the Polls, nor Nancy Pelosi has a crystal ball, it is anyone’s best guess as to who will be the next President. That said; History, my friends, is bound to repeat itself. Perhaps that is why the media is shriller and the operatives more desperate.