If one looks to historical voter demographics to predict outcomes; then the likely outcomes, despite polling to the contrary, will place John McCain in the White House.
How they Voted 1980 – the keys: Regan won 53% of the male vote and 49% of the female vote, 52% aged 30-49 and 54% age 60 plus, 86% of the Republican vote and 26% of the Democrat vote.
Today, the issue of Race has become more prominent in the campaign – in the 1980 Voters by Groups – 10% of non-whites cast their vote for Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, retaining 90% of that group. However a stunning AP/Yahoo poll suggests that that one-third of all white Democrats still have an unfavorable view based on race. additionally, the Democrats have lost a share of Democrat women (no polling percentages), unable to bring voters who were firmly in the Clinton camp back into the fold. Groups include PUMA a PAC that was formed to return the Democrat Party back to its roots.
The Catholic Church has become more aggressive, noting that those who support abortion are “disqualified” – a YouTube video used by Catholic.org was pulled from that website. Recent Obama Rallies have been interrupted by a group called “Blacks Against Obama, their main theme has been the abortion issue. Although Reagan did not carry an overwhelming amount of the Catholic vote, McCain may make up ground as the churches are now more vocal and parishioners more engaged.
The Republican Base is no longer a wild card: Now that Sarah Palin, a strong, pro-life, conservative with a reform record is running with McCain, the base is solid and growing: The San Francisco Chronicle is reporting that state Democrats “are freaking out” because Palin has energized the California Republican Party. Although downplayed by most of the media, Palin has attracted crowds of up to 60,000 at an event in Florida, the attendees: seniors. Compared to recent crowds of 8,000 for Obama, the top of the ticket. McCain already has the mighty Republican base behind him, to the extent not seen since the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan, he appeals to Independents, and most importantly disenfranchised Democrats. Should 10% of the Democrats (conservative figure) cast their vote for the McCain-Palin ticket; the electoral map will mirror that of 1980.
Finally, the biggest McCain-Palin boost is from the media. A Rasmussen poll suggests that 51% of the respondents felt that the media was “out to hurt” Sarah Palin, one sore point for the Republican Base and PUMA. It is no wonder then, that as the polls continue to tighten and the Republican base is shown as energized that the Democrats have little left but despair and derision? Although pundits are cautiously calling this a close race, Rasmussen, whose track record is a bit better than most pollsters, is already showing Palin-Clinton match-ups. As of September 3,Palin is leading Clinton 52/41 among women. Therein lays the rub: Is this particular polling designed to predict the outcome of the 2008 race? Or is it 2012?
1 comment:
It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas ...
Here’s some very interesting polling related data from ... of all places ... Illinois.
"The latest forecast of the Electoral College suggests that John McCain is way ahead of his Democratic rival Barack Obama. The research to be presented at the annual meeting of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences on between October 13 and 15, less than three weeks before the election, says that as of September 19th, the margin in electoral votes could be as high as 282.8 votes for Senator John McCain against 255.2 for Senator Barack Obama, depending on the forecasting scenario. Operations researcher Sheldon H. Jacobson, a professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, along with a group of students and collaborators at Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville, created a math model that dynamically forecasts the outcome of the election. Over 4,000 analysts and experts in analytics are expected to attend next month's meetings. Jacobson's model applies a mathematical model to state polling data, using a dynamic programming algorithm to forecast electoral results."
Now, this is actually not a poll ... it's not some pundit's prediction ... it is, however, a mathematical formula, and who knows, it's just another thing to throw into the mix. But what is infinitely more interesting is that this appears on an University of Illinois website. This is not a scenario the liberal media is talking about ... oh, and by the way, this is Champaign Urbana ... that's Illinois ... that's Obama's home state. Are you picking up what I'm laying down?
So ... if this is true ... it means that some blue states have become at best purple states ... and you couple this, with the facts of recent poll data which indicates the congressional races are tightening up, and it's no longer going to be automatically this Democrat sweep.
And oh what fun it is to ride …
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