Newt Polls Above Romney in Virginia - Virginia Republican Party Boots Gingrich and Perry from Ballot – Set’s Up Win for Ron Paul !

Romney after suspending his campaign in 2008 -image donklephant.com

The Virginia Republican Party has announced that both Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry have failed to qualify for the primary ballot in the Commonwealth(AP)

From the Website of the Commonwealth one finds that the information was sent as a ”Tweet” noting both Paul and Romney qualified by submitting the required 10,000 signatures, although both the Perry and Gingrich Campaigns had submitted over the required amount. Signatures can be challenged in any State as valid, and the State’s Party determines eligibility.

In addition, one cannot write in their candidate’s name in a primary election (see Commonwealth’s voting procedures here) , only in a general election.

The Party, apparently, makes up the rules for those who would run on their ballot, which is, in essence reasonable. However, with it known that the general Republican Leadership prefers Romney, regardless of the fact that he may not carry the election, blocking his competition in Virginia appears somewhat risky.

Ron Paul, who came in third in a recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac, now is, in essence, the only choice Virginia Republicans and Independents, have besides Mitt Romney. With his usual strong grassroots support, vis a vis a weak Elitist Republican base in most states and Commonwealths, a Ron Paul win in Virginia is now not out of the question. Virginia is an open primary state, refer to Ron Paul Website here. There were questions as to whether Gingrich would have time to acquire the 10,000 signatures necessary to be placed on the ballot, he did and went over the required amount, by 1000 plus, however, signature’s can be challenged in elections and it is necessary to have above and beyond the required signatures, as the Party has the right to reject signatures they feel may not be accurate.


Normally, that amount is between 500 and 1,000 signatures, which would have put Gingrich and Perry within the margins. However, Virginia is known for its extremely tough primary signature requirements, therefore, a 1000 plus overage would have given the Republican Party the ability to question 1000 plus signatures as invalid, eliminating the candidates.

Historical aspect:

Virginia goes to the polls on Super Tuesday, in 2008; Romney managed to garner only 3% of the vote and was bested by Ron Paul. Needless to say, Ron Paul supporters are ecstatic as the prospect that they are facing Mitt Romney in this contest alone. (John McCain won the vote in 2008 followed by Huckabee then Paul, then Romney, then Fred Thompson see return of votes here.

The full 2012 Republican Parity schedule is shown below, with, states Romney carried in 2008 noted. Once Romney left the northeast and upper Western States he was virtually finished. In addition, Romney’s continued use of negative attack ads on opponents (CNN 2007, did little to endear him to the electorate primary voters. Those candidates that had either positive and/or contrast ads, pulled out wins – with last men standing John McCain and Mike Huckabee. Romney suspended his campaign in March of 2008. The question remains will Romney be able to carry the states necessary to continue his campaign beyond March in 2012? Iowa is currently up for grabs, with conflicting polls, most of which show a tight race between Paul, Gingrich, Santorum and Romney. In New Hampshire, Ron Paul is chasing Romney while Romney is not polling well In South Carolina, which has Gingrich in the lead, as well as in Florida where, again, Gingrich is up over Romney by double digits (Real Clear Politics). It appears that Gingrich is sewing up the South, while Paul is on Romney’s heels in more moderate states won in the last election.

2012 Primary/Caucus Calendar
January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus)
January 10, 2012 New Hampshire (primary)
January 21, 2012 South Carolina (primary)
January 31, 2012 Florida (primary)
February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus) (Romney)
February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus) (Romney)
February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus) (Romney)
Minnesota (caucus) (Romney)
Missouri (primary) – *See note below on Missouri
February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary)
Michigan (primary) (Romney)
March 3, 2012 Washington (caucus)
March 6, 2012
(Super Tuesday) Alaska (caucus) (Romney)
Georgia (primary)
Idaho (caucus)
Massachusetts (primary) (Romney)
North Dakota (caucus) (Romney)
Ohio (primary)
Oklahoma (primary)
Tennessee (primary)
Vermont (primary)
Virginia (primary)
March 6-10, 2012 Wyoming (caucus) (Romney)
March 10, 2012 Kansas (caucus)
U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)
March 13, 2012 Alabama (primary)
Hawaii (caucus)
Mississippi (primary)
March 17, 2012 Missouri (GOP caucus) – *See note below on Missouri
March 20, 2012 Illinois (primary)
March 24, 2012 Louisiana (primary)
April 3, 2012 District of Columbia (primary)
Maryland (primary)
Wisconsin (primary)
Texas (primary)
April 24, 2012 Connecticut (primary)
Delaware (primary)
New York (primary)
Pennsylvania (primary)
Rhode Island (primary)
May 8, 2012 Indiana (primary)
North Carolina (primary)
West Virginia (primary)
May 15, 2012 Nebraska (primary)
Oregon (primary)
May 22, 2012 Arkansas (primary)
Kentucky (primary)
June 5, 2012 California (primary)
Montana (primary) (Romney)
New Jersey (primary)
New Mexico (primary)
South Dakota (primary)
June 26, 2012 Utah (primary)(Romney)

Batter Up – GOP 2012 - Ron Paul - Soars Too Close to Top in Iowa – Found: Racists, Bizarre, Newsletters from 1990’s – Next? A rant and analysis.

One of the many documents unearthed written under Paul's name - from yidwithlid.blogspot.com

As each candidate, in turn, gets too close to the top of the polls, passing Mitt Romney for the nomination, there is a sudden “problems” with each of the candidates character and/or their past that apparently makes them unelectable. To date, eliminated at the top has been Herman Cain, who found himself assailed by women claiming he was a sex fiend (and one man claiming to be his son) - all those Chicago based/Government employed accusers are quiet, not a peep out of them now that Cain is no longer on the campaign trail. As Gingrich soared in the polls, he was taken to the woodshed by his close friends, Mitt Romney and Michelle Bachmann, throw in Ron Paul and one has a full set of candidates who apparently believe that the nastier and further from the truth opposition ads can be, the better. Newt Gingrich’s fall in the polls can be explained by these types of attacks, the most surprising from this blogs perspective coming from Ms. Bachmann, who stretched the truth thinner than a piece of plastic wrap in regards to Newt Gingrich record on Life Issues. Apparently, as a tax attorney, Bachmann must feel individual voters are clueless as to how to research bills, sponsored legislation and ratings from individual groups such as the NRA and Pro-life organizations. Gingrich is not on the top of the pro-abortion group, NARAL’s list, in fact, only one person has made the top of that list, and that would be President Obama. Hillary Clinton received a lower rating as she is not quite as abortion happy as the President.

Congressman Ron Paul, who, as New Gingrich started to fall from the spotlight ever so slightly (Pollsters actually disagree as to how far Newt Gingrich may be from clocking the heir apparent “Mitt Romney” – in some polls he’s ahead by 10 points, in others he’s now fallen behind) became a serious threat to both the national GOP and one Mitt Romney – not only in Iowa (where one cannot seriously expect Romney to win) and one in New Hampshire (where it is expected he would win) – Paul has something Romney does not, a ground game and one that is made up of more everyday people, Independents, Democrats, Students, Homemakers, Union Workers – those are Obama Voters and yes, Tea Party and Libertarian groups who otherwise might vote for: Newt Gingrich and possibly as a last resort Mitt Romney.

Time to dig for dirt on Paul: Opposition research unearthed newsletters available at Reuters, that paint a different picture of the kindly old Doctor who loves the Constitution and hates war, a man who delivers baby’s – not anymore – The newsletters obtained through Reuters appears to make the Congressman out to be not only a screaming crackpot, but a racist and anti-Semite to boot – or what is otherwise known is a man who was in keeping with his time – albeit from a conspiracy theorists point of view, along the lines of Jim Jones, however sans Kool-Aid. What is most disturbing is the manner in which Paul decided to make money on the side, selling political and financial advise through these newsletters, bearing his signature, which he apparently never saw.

Now, from a pragmatic point of view, generally speaking busy people never write their own drivel, they hire others to do it, say someone who’s in Congress or the Senate, or most businessmen from that era - usually writing was consigned to someone such as a secretary – who would have access to everything, including a signature stamp. This is how things were done, and are still done in businesses and in government today – if one thinks most of the elite write their own material, think again.

But what is irresponsible and obviously dangerous is that this went on for years, without Congressman Paul ever noticing that the materials going out under his name were not only erratic in nature but downright disgusting. That’s the big story, since Paul insists he didn’t write the newsletters, he allowed them to go out under his name – the proverbial “you know what” does roll uphill.

Mitt Romney should now be cleared for takeoff.

The man who the Obama Campaign wants to run as the GOP nominee more than any other due to the mountains of opposition research they have obtained and one who is, also, far from squeaky clean, given his “Ken Doll” appearance.

One problem, now that the GOP can dismiss Ron Paul, the other candidates are starting to rise in the polls (granted, out of literally hundreds of polling taking place) one did find Michel Bachmann tied with Paul and ahead of Romney in Iowa as of yesterday – Bachmann who had been near the top, and had taken a nose dive, apparently is being given a second look. What happens when the negative GOP candidates (Paul, Romney (and Bachmann is in that group) need to turn their attention now to Michelle?!

She’s already been assailed, survived, and is fighting for her political life – like a girl, which in this book, is a positive. The negative was the outright distortion of the truth on the part of Bachmann regarding Gingrich’s record. Although this blogger may think Gingrich is the best possible choice out of the bunch, it is also clear that there is an independent streak that allows for adjustments, when a candidate does wrong, they get zinged. Simple.

It is no secret that Romney is going to have horrific problems with the nomination. It does not matter how many Bushes’ he drags out of retirement, or even Bob Dole (who despises Gingrich for so many things, specifically as an opponent in the 1996 race against Clinton, one which Dole stood zero chance of winning).
In other words, this has become what is normal in American Politics, a cat/or dog fight to the finish.

With Mitt “Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap” Romney, hoping against hope that this time, he’ll carry the day.

One might ask why this bloggers is holding out on Romney as last choice in the contest for ABO (Anybody But Obama) – simple, this blog is written from Massachusetts from the mind of someone who is less Republican, less Democrat, and extremely sick and tired of politics as usual in this nation. Whether one is a Democrat or a Republican if one does a great job, one deserves kudos, however in Romney’s case, one gets the impression one is not alone – which is why this blog has called, worse, begged, polling firms to take it to Massachusetts and match up the current field of GOP candidates. One can hazard to guess that Romney might not win Massachusetts.

Why the distaste for the way Romney Governed? He did Cross the Aisle – he has that to his record, however, he did so by abandoning his conservative principals, whereas on the serious candidate on a wish list – the following individuals did not: Sarah Palin, managed to govern and get things done in Alaska, by working with both Democrats and Republicans and kicking both to the curb when they placed party before people, Newt Gingrich, who is the villain of the piece, was in the same mold, only longer, as a legislature his push and pulled those Democrats and Republicans together, in the Congress and in the Senate, while waging a campaign to bring Bill Clinton to his point of view. He succeeded. Its history, one can look it up. The last individual on my list has never been in this race, but, one might note, there is always hope and that is one Hillary Clinton. She had a very interesting record as Senator, one which would disqualify her from an A Rating with most of the fringe groups and fringe members of Congress (Reid and Pelosi come to mind) – one has to ask, and be honest, would Clinton have allowed Reid and Pelosi to run them around? (She has a record too, one which is not ridiculous, but to be applauded).

Therefore, since two of the candidates that would be acceptable and run this nation with an eye towards fiscal conservatism, military strength, and would be able to cross the aisle to get things done, shoving members of their own party out of the way – that leaves one standing. Yes, Gingirch is pompous, because he’s smart, yes he won’t run negatives ads, because he is smart (in the long run, those negative ads will sink a candidate), and he hasn’t to date, done the one thing the pundits suggested: imploded. He’s kept his wits, and even manages a few zingers now again, especially against Romney, who, if he would debate Gingrich on negative Campaigning (which he refused to do), he would lose, he lost in the debates with Ted Kennedy when he ran for the Massachusetts Senate, and one can anticipate he will lose those debates should he become the nominee – in this opinion, if Romney is the nominee, obviously he will be the ABO candidate, however, those in the voting booth will have hard time decide ding which way to go, one Moderate or the other. It will make no difference - he will govern the nation just like he governed Massachusetts – again someone please poll Massachusetts.

The concept that Romney will be the given nominee, is a not yet determined, because first he has to get past the Carolina’s, and to the best of this knowledge, Fred Thompson is not available to run against Gingrich/Huckabee/McCain – so, the fate of the nation literally rests on the good people of the great state of South Carolina, followed by those states in the south and Midwest, that drove Romney from the race in 2008.

Ron Paul, it was fun while it lasted – maybe. Paul’s followers are ready to forgive, so if Paul pulls out Iowa and then New Hampshire (still a possibility regardless of the newsletter find), the individual who wins the South Carolina Race will be perceived as the most viable candidate, and that is still to be determined.

2012 GOP Iowa, a Dead Heat - Bachman in the Race - Gingrich Leads Nationally, Romney Super Pac Sole Target: Newt Gingrich – Shades of Mike Huckabee!

2008 - The Last Men Standing the Least Likely to Win by Pundits Standards


One has to ask themselves, how many polls can be accurate and what methodology is most predictive – the answers will vary, depending upon the pollster; however, one thing in this election cycle is clear – few if any of the polls taken appear to have a general consensus. The latest poll coming out of Iowa and commissioned by Fox News, an automated poll taken by Springfield Illinois Based political consulting firm “We Ask American”, shows a statistical dead heat among Paul, Romney, Gingrich and Bachmann. The pollsters analysis is fairly spot on, given the facts about how the Iowa Caucus is structured - it is the ground game – the arm twisting, the convincing and not the amount spent on advertising, but the ground troops that will win the day. In 2008, although predicted to win Iowa two weeks out in some polling, Mike Huckabee was considered a dark horse, with Mitt Romney favored to win. Romney had, after all, spent millions on ads, most of those focused on attacking the up and coming Arkansas Governor who broke into the lead. Inexplicably (to some) Huckabee won Iowa, and Romney was out of the race after Super Tuesday. In Iowa, apparently, it’s those that walk the walk and talk the talk, despite negative advertising, that will win the day, but only if they have the ground troops.

In this particular automated poll of likely voters We Ask America offers the following (Taken Dec. 21st): Ron Paul 19%, Mitt Romney 18%, Newt Gingrich 16% and Michelle Bachmann 15% - with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5%, that places all candidates within reach of winning the caucus. In their analysis, they give the nod to Ron Paul, who has the apparent ground strength in Iowa.

In the latest national poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, one of the most accurate pollsters (leans Democrat), especially within the last week of any political contest, gives Gingrich the nod, with only a slight loss in support, yet a 35 point margin, with Romney at 22% (which is a number Candidate Romney has owned for two Presidential Campaigns), Paul 11% and Bachmann, again next in line, at 7%. Bachmann, who has taken the position of “tied” in Iowa, can stay fairly even in the race should she finish in the top four. However, a word of caution on Iowa polling – wait until next week to get a handle on Iowa, if this remains unchanged, one can anticipate four winners coming out of the caucus. The main focus on the campaign, however, unless Bachmann gains traction in New Hampshire and South Carolina (the most predictive state), will continue to be Gingrich/Romney and Paul, the top tier candidates for now.

Of course, if one doesn’t care for the outcome of the Public Policy Polling survey, one can turn to ten other national polls, and literally shop which polls they prefer. For example, a national survey released last week by CNN (marginals here) using the same methodology as the aforementioned pollsters, shows Gingrich and Romney tied at 28%, with Paul at 14% and Bachman at 8%. Over at Rasmussen on Iowa, taken on Dec. 21st, one sees an entirely different outcome: Romney leads with 25%, Paul at 20%, Gingrich at 17%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10% each and Bachmann in this poll at 6%.

Again, these pollsters used automated polling (telephone survey) – apparently one might hazard to guess that it depends upon where one is calling in Iowa, as to the results one will have, given the range of poll results from two pollsters and in the same day. Suffice it to say, what it does tell us is that one of the top three may either place or win in Iowa – and the 4th candidate may be Perry, Bachmann or Santorum.

Mitt Romney and the Super PAC versus Newt Gingrich (the Mike Huckabee of 2011 in terms of who’s in Mitt Romney’s proverbial cross-hairs)

The Political Action Committee directly tied to Mitt Romney in this election (see Club for Growth in 2008), Restore our Future has spent literally millions on a barrage of ads against one candidate only: former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich. The PAC, which the Speaker has rightly pointed out, is made up of former Romney 2008 staffers, and “friends”, has released advertising that is less than truthful and designed to do one thing – remove Newt Gingrich from Mitt Romney’s path. Romney refuses to refute these methods; in the same manner he championed similar programs against Huckabee in 2008. The PAC’s top donors, incidentallyare from Bain Capital – no surprises there (See Open Secrets.org).

Here’s the take on the negative advertising from this perspective at any given time in any give race – it will eventually backfire. It backfires especially with independent voters in the state of Massachusetts, which should be the model for studying the habits of the unenrolleds or independent voter, given that 51% of the Commonwealth’s Electorate is “unenrolled”. What attracts these voters? Apparently not attack ads – Kerry Healy, former Lieutenant governor under Romney, ran 24/7 attack ads against one Duval Patrick, and the result: defeat. Flip to the Democrat side in Massachusetts, and the race between Attorney General Martha Coakley and one Scott Brown, and the same negative advertising run by Coakley, managed to have the same effect.

What can one take away from all the dirty dealings, the attack ads and the conflicting polls? The fact that this is an open and healthy race and that the longer the American Public has to watch this nominating process with four candidates or five for that matter, the better the eventual outcome will be. One can also look at the similar patterns evolving from the 2008 cycle and find that one candidate is proving to be taking a similar path, which ended in a withdrawal after Super Tuesday. In any bettors mind, putting good money on Mitt Romney to go the distance at this point would be a waste. The question is which of the remaining candidates will go the distance? One would hazard to guess, given this round of polls (which is subject to change next week); Gingrich, Paul and Bachmann will be the likely trio emerging. One would, however, caution both Bachmann and Paul to remain rather focused on their own merits rather than pull up 20 year old drivel on the Speaker, as it has a tendency to backfire, sooner than later. They might want to check back with Mitt in March.

As to those pundits who are pointing, rather gleefully, to the Speakers falling poll-numbers, and noting that he is dislike in polls nationwide (obviously not the case), noting that the negative ads would have no impact because they are being run only in Iowa. One has to ask, regardless of the candidate under attack, and regardless of the state, do they really believe the American Pubic is so isolated that they would not see an attack ad against any candidate, on the net, or on one of the many cable shows, or network nightly newscasts that are broadcast nationwide? Would someone is say California, watching a broadcast which shows a negative campaign ad in Iowa, not see it? Again, the disregard for the intellect of the American Public is, in a word (phrase), lacking in common sense.
Here’s the prediction: should these plethora of polls hold true: Ron Paul should sweep Iowa, he has the ground game, in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney may just squeak out a win, unlikely given the same ground forces of Paul and strong tea party support for Gingrich, that contest too is up in the air. That leaves South Carolina – or the gateway to Super Tuesday and the nomination. Should Gingrich take South Carolina, and possibly the now in the outs Florida primary (or place with Romney near the top), the balance of the states will map similarly to those of 2008. However, one might find that instead of Romney running second throughout the south, it may be Bachmann or Paul or both going the distance to the bitter end. Although this blogger holds no crystal ball, only access to articles and insight from previous election cycles (history) these trends that are taking shape, make the aforementioned scenario extremely likely.