Monday, March 23, 2015

2016 – GOP - Cruz In First – Rand Paul On Deck, DNC – O’Malley Most Likely, watch Julian Castro



The 2016 Presidential Sweepstakes begins today with the announcement that Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), will be running for the Republican Nomination. Cruz, who made the announcement via Twitter, will be speaking at Liberty University today, an evangelical Christian college. (Mass Live).

Rand Paul (R-KY) is expected to announce his primary bid on April 7th, with with an “ambitious five state tour”according to the Washington Times.

On the DNC side, the likeliest first to announce will be the former Governor of Maryland Martin O’Malley, who, according to the New York Post, is a favorite if Hillary Clinton does not run (NY Post)

The likelihood of Clinton running successfully, if at all, is high. Going by DNC history, the more likely candidate to emerge would be the former Mayor of San Antonio who is currently being evasive about a VP roll in a Clinton campaign. (National Mortgage Professional.com).

O’Malley who spent both time and money is Iowa in 2014, and is well received, has yet to nail down the support. Apparently, those who would be pivotal are waiting for someone else, (Washington Post) could it be Castro?

In any event, and somewhat early to tell with few exceptions (Cruz, O’Malley, Paul), it will be a politically diverse slate of candidates, with perhaps the exception of the DNC, who has the Progressive’s front and center (thus less support Clinton). Given the recent thrashing that the standard politicians took in 2014, one might speculate that the candidate that is less “political party” would go the distance – to the White House. Cruz, in comments from any news article, is seen as a radical Tea Party, Canadian born (Constitutionally, that does not matter), super intelligent, but lacking experience, candidate. The fact that Cruz holds his own regardless of which side of the aisle he is taking to task makes him extremely interesting. Additionally, if he is acceptable to the Evangelical right, then, he will be the nominee and with the twenty million who sat out the last General election due to an inability to vote for a Mormon, he can secure the Presidency. Unless, of course, they are able to support multiple candidates, should the candidate social issues align with their own, on a personal level.

The top of the GOP field picks: Walker, Cruz, Paul, Perry. Top of the DNC field picks: O’Malley, possibly Castro, and that rascal from Vermont, Bernie Sanders. With O’Malley in the game, there is little incentive for Elizabeth Warren to step forward. If Warren is aware that Castro is going to jump in, then that would be a reason she is not doing the same. Clinton is being maligned from all sides – therefore, it is very unlikely that a credible female candidate will emerge in 2016 with enough stamina to break the glass ceiling.

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