Monday, October 01, 2012

The CA 12th (formerly the 8th district) – Nancy Pelosi faces John Dennis in November election – Dennis new Commercial Quirky a Bit of Humor goes a long way.



The Contest: John Dennis Vs. Nancy Pelosi for the 12th - image John Dennis 2012 dot com

Yes, Virginia, there is a challenger to Nancy Pelosi in the California 8th district, one Libertarian, John Dennis. Dennis ran against Nancy Pelosi in 2010, the results of which race, was one of the few that the NYTimes predicted correctly – the return of votes – showing Pelosi with an 80% lead over candidate Dennis in the 8th district, one district that is gerrymandered to the point where Pelosi might as well have the ability to name her own successor. That said, different race, different year – the same odds however, apply to the newly formed 12th District – which Pelosi inherited when California, not unlike Massachusetts had to reshuffle the Congressional seats due to population loss. In Massachusetts, for example, Barney Frank became the sacrificial lamb (so to speak) when the Democrats on the Hill, had to restructure 10 districts into 9 – the result one of them had to have more conservatives (yes, in Massachusetts) than others – the district give to Barney Frank looked a lot different, with a majority of the large urban areas sliced away, and central Massachusetts (the reddest part of the bluest state east) included in the mix. Frank resigned – he had run a tough race for re-election against Sean Beilat – the race projected by the New York Times as a blow-out for Frank, by 75% of the vote, ended up a tad closer, at a 10 point lead. That said the former 8th district did indeed go to Nancy Pelosi – pre-redistricting.

The 8th district includes – San Francisco – Bay view Excelsior and Presidio. The 12th district now includes Outer Sunset and the Sunset District, a bit broader, but the Times continue to call the seat – “Safe Democrat”. They also have the Massachusetts 6th, with the Tierney-Tisei match up “Safe Democrat”, that said, a recent poll shows the Republican running away with the District. Go figure.

The 8th District results in 2010 showed Speaker Pelosi garnering 157,000 votes to John Dennis’s 33,000 (California Secretary of State) – and considering that in San Francisco County (the 8th District) -461,768 are eligible to vote, with 259,808 Democrats, 44,003 Republicans, 136,000 registered as not stating, and the balance a jumble of parties. The point being, that less than a third of those eligible to vote showed up at the polls. (Secretary of State, CA)

Therefore there may be an opportunity here for John Dennis to pick up the Disenfranchised, Democrats, as well as “declined to states” add a few Republicans and unseat Nancy.

The campaign released a new video – shown below – a bit quirky, but isn’t that what San Francisco is all about? – Those 4 million jobs Nancy is referring to as being created, hardly enough to push down the 8% unemployment rate nationally – however, Dennis and CO kept it light focusing instead on domestic surveillance issues – but again, he’s a Libertarian, and what’s not to like about a Libertarian?

There is likely to be zero polls out the district, and Dennis appears to be a serious challenger – in a year where the polls are based on the prior election (2010 for Congress – 2008 for the President), there are some factors to consider: Redistricting is one of the biggies, no one is apparently talking about – while talking heads use outdated district maps to back up 2008 and 2010 return of votes as a predictive indicator. One would be cautioned to wait until the dust settles, However, Dennis needs a ground game in the City-District, and poll watchers, and of course, someone to keep an eye on the bay, where most of the ballots may end up if they are not favorable to Ms. Pelosi.

(Basing that on MA and CT shenanigans.)

He’s got a sense of humor, grant him that.

One last thought, on almost every single race, and every single poll, the media is now noting (Politico) that it is those with blinders on that cannot see an across the board win for Democrats in November – The polls simply cannot be wrong. (See: Poltico article on parallel universe) Further, that those who insist that the polls are somehow skewed in favor of the incumbent Democrat (pick one) are living in la-la- land. Of course, they do not consider that there is some math to factor into the mix. The following apparently makes sense to those in the media. Based on a 2008 electorate, polls are correct, because in 2008 there were 8% more Registered Democrats at the polls, the Republican’s were outmatched by the Democrats and Independents, an almost equal number trended Democrat. Further they used the 2008 Congressional elections to predict house and senate races in 2010. They were shocked when they work up and found historic gains by Republican’s in the House. The math is what is at fault, and since they no longer teach basic math skills to the majority - they assume, that 8 points or more will magically appear. One has to be delusional to believe that can happen. One would be better served to poll based on election statistics from the 2010 election, of course, the results are far less favorable, and with redistricting, that takes a great deal of county by county predictions right off the table, unless someone is actually polling the District or State for the Senate Race and not using 2008 models.

Which is why the nation was shocked when a day before the November 1980 elections Jimmy Carter was tied with Ronald Reagan, and the results just didn’t jive because Regan won! Shocker! – Gallup in explaining the differential once the dust settled simply stated, there was a change in enrollment in political parties from the prior election that weren’t factored into the polls. (Google News Archives).

Really?

Check out the video below – Personal Note, a Libertarian in Congress would far better serve the nation, as they are independent of major party affiliation... If one is in the Califonria12th, visit http://www.johndennis2012.com/, maybe make a donation, be part of history, get him a ground game. Find those 250,000 missing voters who stayed home and get them to the polls for Dennis.

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