Elizabeth Warren, Obama Democrat gets the Go-Head at Dem. State Convention to challenge Senator Scott Brown in November - image The Atlantic.com
From the Boston Globe:Elizabeth Warren received the go ahead at the State Democrat Convention held in Springfield MA on Saturday June 2nd – she will face popular Senator, Republican Scott Brown in November. From the Globe:
(Boston Globe)
“I’d love to see some debates with Scott Brown,” a bubbling Warren told reporters moments after her victory was announced. “Let’s get started on this. I’m ready.”……
Warren, who called Brown a “Mitt Romney Republican” and a “Wall Street Republican,” listed a series of votes the incumbent had made, including votes against a Democratic bill to prevent a doubling of student loan interest rates and in favor of big oil subsidies.
She also invoked the memory of the late Democratic Senator Edward M. Kennedy, who for 47 years held the seat that Brown won in a special election in 2010.
“It’s a long way from Ted Kennedy to Scott Brown,” said Warren.
Brown has already accepted an invitation for one radio debate, and would like to see at least 3 to 4 debates, according to the Boston Herald, however Warren is not ready to commit” to any debates(Herald)
The point of the debate process would allow a small percentage of Massachusetts residents to see both the incumbent Brown and the challenger Warren go toe to toe – In the special election of 2009, Brown bested Martha Coakley in the two debates, which were not exactly “prime time” – Warren, who has already started hedging, may be difficult to pin down, and chances are debates will take place at odd times – the first debate on talk radio: WBZ AM Boston, with Dan Rea, was accepted by Brown – however, according to NECN: “On Sunday, a spokeswoman for Warren replied in an emailed statement that the Democratic candidate is glad Brown accepted her debate challenge on Saturday and that she will reach out to her rival to discuss details.” - , which is not necessarily a definitive “yes”, as implied by the cable station.
Warren, a Harvard Professor and Obama appointee, may be a step up from Coakley in the debate arena, however, judging from a debate between her and primary challenger Marisa DeFranco, she will struggle against Brown – (see: Video here) – Thereby, by narrowing the debate schedule and timing, it would benefit Warren – who is going to have an uphill battle, despite the implications by Massachusetts media and a recent poll by Western New England College and Masslive (The Springfield Republican) suggests that voters will identify Warren with Obama and Brown with Romney – giving Warren the edge, given the polls outcome of a significant lead in the Bay State by Obama over Romney However, missing from both the Western New England Polling Institute, and the Springfield Republican site, Masslive are the marginals – one can see the methodology – however, how the poll was parsed to be inclusive of the make-up of the state is not available.
That is important because if the poll was taken giving Western Massachusetts a larger share, than say, Worcester (Central Mass) there is the issue of population and voter affiliation being – equal to the actual election. Suffolk University Polling includes its marginals with the results, giving a distinct overview of the methodology and the makeup of the polls, which allows those who would read the polls, to understand if the poll accurately represents the electorate. In the case of Western New England’s polling – it does not.
One might believe that the lay of the land has changed since Scott Brown shocked the Beltway and won the “People’s Seat”, but it has not. Coakley got a little help from Barack Obama, and that association did very little to pull up her numbers – Invoking the late Senator who’s seat was open, may not do much for the general electorate, but Democrats in general who make up approximately one-third of registered voters in the Bay State.
What is perhaps, the most interesting aspect of the race, to date, is Warren’s advertising, which does not mention “party affiliation” rather speaks about her being “a regular person” – which begs the question, why is she distancing herself from screaming from the rafters “I’m a Democrat, friend of Barack Obama and a Harvard Professor (the later in there) – In the best scenario for Warren, she will pick up the majority of Democrat votes, and possibly shave off 8 to 10% of those unenrolleds who consistently vote Democrat – Brown would pick up the balance – giving him an approximate 5 point edge in the end results, despite the media’s best intent to forward Warren.
As to Obama’s lead in Massachusetts, that may be a given, understanding that in the last two Gallup state by state polls, (2010 and 2011 respectively), the President has approval ratings over 50% in 10 states, one of which is Massachusetts. The latest from the conservative (meaning careful in the instance) pollster suggests nothing has changed over the past three years , with Obama holding 50% or more in the same states. In addition, Gallup also reports on the partisan trends in states whereby the Republican’s have gained an advantage in several states – the top Democrat leaning states in Gallup’s research are: DC, HI, RI, MA, NY, MD, CT, VT, DE and IL, while the Democrats lost voters in : UT, WY, ID, AK, KS, NE, ND, AL, SD, MT (See article: States Move GOP 2011)
That said, Massachusetts has that independent streak, and to date, Brown has managed to vote his way, creating angst from the Far Right and the Far Left, which means he’s no rubber stamp, no matter how hard the state media, with the Democrat Party, attempts to paint him as a Mitt Romney Clone.
That also may not be the best idea, given the fact that Obama’s popularity in Massachusetts is based on polls that suggest he has overwhelming Democrat support – (the key word) – yet when push comes to shove in November, Mass voters may do what they have rarely done, vote Republican, for both Brown and Romney. As of this point, and this early out, it is clearly impossible to take polls seriously regardless of the results, (unless a specific pattern has been developed such as the state by state research by Gallup, trending three years of statistics – even that is subject, however, to change).
It will be, above all, entertaining to see (or hear) the debates between Brown and Warren, even if they are available to a narrow audience, one will be able to find recaps on YouTube, or the news sites, such as NECN, which should carry the entire debate on their website.
Bloggers personal note: In the early stages of the Brown Camping, it was recognized that he had the temperament, experience, and ability to run for Senate, and would appeal to both Republicans in Massachusetts (the few), some Democrats (no kidding) and those unenrolled (the majority). In a visit to a phone bank center located at one of the eight Brown campaign offices at that time, it was interesting to note that the majority of the hundreds of people phone banking were not Republican Party affiliates, rather: Democrats, Unenrolleds, Green Party, Libertarian – Brown, for all the hoopla surrounding the “Kennedy Seat” at the time, was helped by the “people” – After his win in January – Brown went back to each location across the state (in his pick-up truck no less) and personally thanked those who helped is campaign, those who voted for him, and even those who did not, he wanted a opportunity to meet them. In going to one of these events, it struck me that, although he may have run late for the next event he made sure he shook every hand, and spoke to each constituent there – it was not about partisan politics, it was genuine. – This is the kind of public servant, who regardless of party, is about doing the business of the people. Therefore, given the close ties that Warren has to the President, and seeing yet another rubber stamp in the making, it is clear that a Senator who has voted with and against him own party in the interest of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, gets the vote.
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