Barack Obama and Elizabeth Warren - Warren Contributions taking away from Obama in MA according to the Globe< - image: familysecuritymatters.org
The Boston Globe Headline: “Obama donors lagging in Mass. (sub) Far fewer give maximum as enthusiasm wanes”speaks to the woes of the Obama Campaign in Massachusetts, and how this Democrat “Cash Cow” state, has seen numbers dwindle since 2008. It appears there are several factors at play, according to the article, chief among them are House and Senate races, specifically the race for Scott Brown’s Seat, challenged by Elizabeth Warren, whose claim of Cherokee Heritage has everyone talking, and three hotly contested Democrat Congressional Seats: Tsongas, Tierney and Keating.
There is also a Kennedy who is running for the 4th Congressional District Seat vacated by Barney Frank, much gerrymandered to be more Conservative (yes in Massachusetts) and possibly unwinnable by even a Kennedy – given the new make-up and the competition, the fact that with a heavily Democrat favored district in 2010, Frank barely held on by Massachusetts standards, winning by 10 points, instead of 50 (as is the norm). The same was true for the aforementioned three in need of funds.
Giving money to Warren’s campaign, is akin to spitting into the wind at this point, although she is seen holding on in polls, or close to leading, Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) holds his own and then some with the largest voting bloc in the state, Unenrolleds, who make up over 50% of the electorate. Warren can count on the 35 to 36% of basic Democrat votes, (those who pull the lever, no matter who is running), and possibly 5 points in Unenrolled, dead voters, and those multiple voters, however, it is shaping up to be more of a Coakley-Brown Repeat, with Coakley merely stumbling and having no baggage.
Quotes from the Globe re: the aforementioned:
“Elizabeth Warren has sucked a lot of air out of the room,’’ said a 2008 Obama fund-raiser who asked not to be identified out of deference to the campaign. “She has supplanted Barack Obama as this year’s phenom. So with Obama without a primary opponent, it’s like, what’s the sense of urgency?’’
Many Bay State Democratic fund-raisers have also been energized by Joseph Kennedy’s congressional campaign, and some incumbent House Democrats, such as William Keating, Niki Tsongas, and John Tierney, are also fighting to hang on to their seats.
What is not discussed in depth, rather in passing is the economy. Massachusetts, although touted as improved, has its cash and unemployment woes, rising costs at the grocery store and the pump, just like the other 49 states – People simply do not have the money to donate to political campaigns in 2011 - 2012 that they had in 2007 – 2008. Not mentioned: the fact that there is a challenger (Mitt Romney) raising money in the same Commonwealth) – those donors may run in different circles, with the exception of the died in the wool Dem’s and Republican’s in the state, it’s the Independents again, that will pay the cash and the vote in MA.
A national snapshot follows via the FEC: From 2011-2012 – Individual donors nationwide have contributed $169,058,434, to President Obama’s campaign, with $98,170,540 Contributed to Romney’s campaign. In addition, Romney’s campaign has $0 debt, while Obama has debts owed of $1,200(FEC) Understanding that this does not include “bundlers”, or funds coming from political parties and/or Super Pac’s – those can be found here - where currently one can see the disparity for the President as to the PAC’s and national parties, special interest groups and PAC's against Obama outweigh those for Obama (both in number and in cash).
Although in almost every contest, one is told the Cash value of a candidate weighs in on his/or her future as an incumbent, however, in this race, at this time, it may be more of a clash of the Titans, (as far as cash is concerned, and an army of those who have had enough heading to the polls.
If any one indicator stands out on enthusiasm, it is the numbers coming in for the President in the Democrat Primaries:
In Massachusetts for Example: Obama received 89% of the primary votes with 11% showing no preference: total votes: 127,264 Obama, 16,239 No Preference. When compared to the Republican Party Primary: Romney received 79%, with Santorum 12%, Paul 10% and Gingrich 5%. In addition on the ballot were Bachmann, Huntsman, Perry and yes, No Preference. (Perry, Bachmann and Huntsman had pulled out of the race earlier). Total votes cast for Romney: 265,110, total votes cast in the Republican Primary: 340,264. No Preference: 1,860 votes cast.
What makes this interesting is that the Democrat Party in Massachusetts had a concerted “get out the vote” effort to show party superiority in that Primary, lest the Republican’s show more enthusiasm (obviously did not work) – in Primaries, the diehards vote, (i.e. political junkies), and those that have enthusiasm for a candidate. It could be argued that Romney did better than Obama purely because there was more hoopla about the Republican contest, however, again, this is Massachusetts.
Therefore, although shown as “Safe Democrat” again, and again, and again, ad naseum (including the Scott Brown special election of 2009), this time Massachusetts may, yet again, re-elect a Republican Governor, as President. There is clearly a lack of enthusiasm among the rank and file, both in opening their wallets and the party leadership getting their people to the polls.
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