Too late? Mitt Romney - Hillary Clinton 2012 Contest - Possibly Less Boring than current projections and trends: Image: CNN
Today’s Headline from The Springfield Massachusetts Republican: “Poll: Voters feel worse off financially today than when President Obama took office”speaks to a recent Washington Post/USA Today Poll noting that, similar to the summer of 1980, the nations voters feel their dollar goes further than it did four years ago. The poll also indicates that a plurality of voters continue to believe it is the fault of former President George W. Bush – however, when one looks at the marginal’s: party affiliation is not on par with national averages, for example: the May 20th poll was comprised of Democrats: 32%, Republican’s: 22%, Independents: 38%, Other: 2%, No Opinion: 1%, (WAPO)while Pew research finds Swing voters (or independent, unenrolled, unaffiliated), over a period of 22 years, had remained actually dropped and as of April 2012 is at 23%,(Independent Voters.org) although there are indicators that those identifying themselves as unenrolleds has grown in parity with the major parties.
Rasmussen Reports that those identifying themselves as either Republican (35.1%) or Democrat (33.1%) (as of April of 2012), is on par with rolling three year survey – which would lead one to conclude the other third do not identify with either party. Given that a variety of surveys indicate there is a growing three way split in the electorate, the Washington Post/ABC Poll is somewhat biased. Polls, in general, are educated guesses based statistics and answers from random selections, which – to those who are not mathematicians are surprising accurate the majority of the time.
Who are the unenrolled? They identify by candidate or by party depending upon the issues facing the state and or nation at the time of any given election – and as of 2010, that includes “The Tea Party”, which would indicate there is definitely room for a third party in the United States.
This is very apparent in the recent Democrat Primaries where President Obama has been challenged by primary opponents, his vote tally is statistically lower than Mitt Romney’s on the Republican side of the primary schedule.(Yahoo News) For example: In Kentucky, “Uncommitted” received 42% of the vote, Obama 58%, in Arkansas, a primary challenger received 38.%% of the total vote against President Obama, and in West Virginia a prison inmate received 40% of the vote in the Democrat primary. (ABC News)
With Romney’s machine, now in cruise control, (the former Massachusetts Governor should officially clinch the nomination in the Texas primary at the end of May), both his organizational skills, as well as his fundraising and messaging appear to be right on target to a win in November, one that appeared almost impossible a year ago and throughout the primary process, which has, in retrospect, turned Romney into the most formidable candidate to challenge the President.
However, there may have been another challenger, one who, if they had run in the Democrat Primaries, would have bested not only Obama, a sitting President, but would have had every opportunity to best a Republican challenger – Hillary Clinton. Clinton’s favorability remains at an all time high according to Gallup polling, her current rating is consistent at 66% favorable. One can bet the house, had she taken her husband’s advice (according to the latest release by Edward Klein), she would be cruising towards clinching the Democrat nomination, and would have had the opportunity to make history as the first Women to be elected President.
During the 2008 election Democrat Primary, Hillary Clinton received the majority of the popular vote, but was denied the nomination through a process known as “Super-Delegates” at the DNC Convection. In this way, popular votes are cast aside, and Super-Delegates elect the Party nominee. It was Nancy Pelosi and her daughter, who cast the final votes to nominate Barack Obama as the party standard-bearer, in a stunning anti-feminist move by the left of center San Francisco Democrat. She insisted that Women would not suffer a setback if Clinton lost.(Bloomberg) Unfortunately, many believe that the country, women especially have suffered since then Speaker of the House Pelosi muscled the super-delegate vote for Barack Obama. This is evidenced by the overall polling of the President’s job approval and the continued high approval of one Hillary Clinton. One must ask: Is it too late for Hillary to pull an upset at the 2012 Democrat Convection in whichever state they finally settle on? Otherwise, at this point, the trends indicate Romney will enjoy a Reagan like election night victory.
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