Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Santorum Suspends Bid for GOP Nomination – Romney Takes the Helm – The Misconception that Conservatives Won’t Support Romney - Analysis

See Clinton-Obama 2008 and the Obama Brand 2012


Romney - Obama - Game Set! image: Patdollard.com


CBS News: Rick Santorum officially suspended his campaign yesterday, with a speech that ended with an opening salvo that he would continue to fight to secure the Presidency for the GOP nominee: “"I walked out after the Iowa caucus victory and said game on," Santorum said in leaving the campaign trial Tuesday. "I know a lot of folks are going to write, maybe those even at the White House, game over. But this game is a long long long way from over. We are going to continue to go out there and fight to make sure that we defeat President Barack Obama."

The first hints that the Santorum campaign might be coming to a halt came from a Bloomberg News report early morning on April 10th, noting that Romney had pulled his anti-Santorum ads in Pennsylvania, instead replacing the attack ads with a pro-Romney piece. Although the article noted that Romney’s campaign was doing this out of support for Santorum’s family’s struggles with their daughter, Bella’s, hospitalization, one can bet the house that the Romney campaign was not about to spend $2 million on advertising that did not benefit the campaign.

One news report that was linked on the Drudge Report, suggested that Santorum had “snubbed” Romney by “failing to mention him” in his outgoing speech – which is a moot point – as the article fails to mention that Santorum had spoken to Romney prior to speaking to supporters . Romney has since reached out to both Santorum and his supporters noting that Santorum is an “important voice in the GOP(CBS News)

Romney is now at the helm of the GOP contest, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul barely making a dent as far as real numbers from the primary contests held to date, and the polls for upcoming contests. That Romney will clinch the nomination within the next two months (given the primary schedule) is certain, and the Obama campaign, along with the Press, are already working angles from Romney’s religion being a stumbling block with Evangelicals to the theory posed by the Washington Post that the topical NBC Programming of “Saturday Night Live” had the potential to hurt the Romney campaign. Somehow, the aforementioned seems a wish list rather than grounded in any reality.

During the very heated 2008 Democrat race for the nomination, which, one should be reminded, lasted through June of the year – the Nomination of Obama through the use of Super-Delegates rather than the popular vote that Clinton had locked-up. This caused a mid-summer rift in the Democrat Party, of which some vestiges are still lingering. Yet the nations distaste for George W. Bush, had grown to such proportions that it did not matter which candidate the Democrats had put up against a very weak John McCain, that candidate would win, and with wide support from Democrats, including those who, at the mid-summer mark, detested Obama.

Therefore, even though a Virginia University Poll has Romney a full 6 points ahead of Obama in an early test of a match-up there is still the “but” in the headline – this one referring to Romney’s “enthusiasm gap” The article ends (NPR) with a promise to delve into the religious aspect of the campaign, with more from the Universities poll.

The enthusiasm GAP does exist and it exists in all campaigns where the press and the national GOP had consistently insisted that Romney was the nominee, even when it appeared that Santorum might just pull it out. Alternately, the fact that individuals are not engaged in the primary process, rather the majority cannot recall who is even running; they are waiting for the “Big Show”, or the general election, to make a choice. Who’s’ watching now are the independents, those who are self-indentified as one party or another, will vote no matter who is in the driver’s seat, that is almost a given. The fact that Obama owns the national debt, the rising cost of fuel and the unemployment rate is what counts in this race, regardless of the blame game played consistently by the administration- that wearies those independents who sent Obama to the White House in 2008.

In looking at broad approval numbers by state, via Gallup, for 2010 and 2011, (both released in January of each year) one finds the President with a 50 point plus approval rating in only 10 states, when translated into a real vote, and understanding this is hypothetical statistics, one finds that an unnamed Republican going head to head with Obama will pull 337 of the electoral college votes, to Obama’s 191 these numbers were adjusted to reflect the changing electoral map, due to the 2010 census, and was generous towards the incumbent. In other words, the fact that this general will come down to two or three points, might be a stretch, 5 points is probable, in favor of the former “unnamed” Republican, now Mitt Romney.

Therefore, expect a good deal of reports on Romney’s faith – in the same manner that the press demonized Rick Santorum for being, of all things, a “Catholic”. Does that matter when the right and left of this nation are so tied to their respective parties? Not particularly, since it is the middle minded independents who will cast a vote. Unless of course, the miraculous happens and the President can pull a rabbit out of a hat, reducing the cost of a gallon of gas to $2.50 (using the Gingrich model, it should be less given our natural resources), pulling the unemployment rate down to a respectable Bush level 4 to 5%, while creating enough jobs to cover those not on the official unemployment rolls – in less than eight months, it is an insurmountable task, even if one employs, smoke, mirrors and an all too willing press, it will be pooh-poohed by those living in the reality.
Romney, going forward, needs to stay in that limelight, as if one recalls, McCain received a small percentage of press once he became the nominee, while the news reports, from local, to national, were primarily the Barack Obama show. Romney is no McCain, and he is also not about to let go of any limelight that might come his way – In addition, his wife, Ann, is more than capable on the campaign, and one would suggest, in the White House.

Upcoming in the news:

A. The picking of the running mate (not normally announced until the nomination is clinched, but oh the speculation!
B. The excuses for the current administration, both in the press and from the press secretary.
And finally,
C. A battle tested team of former competitors standing firmly behind the GOP nominee, with a host of conservatives, some of them holding their noses, as they head into the ballot box, leading Mitt Romney to victory in 2012. Fear of a second Obama Presidency, rampant among Conservatives, will ultimately, when added to the independent voters, more than make up for the previous “enthusiasm gap” Romney suffered lo these very few primaries.

Note on Santorum: The all American story of a man who’s humble beginnings, and his quest for the Congress, the Senate and then the Presidency will be told, he is, as noted by so many of his peer, a most able competitor, and the support shown to Santorum by this Massachusetts Moderate Feminist, was due to his record, rather than any “news stories”, (stories the operative word). Therefore, holding nose, this blogger will vote for Mitt Romney, having lives through the second coming of Jimmy Carter, there simply is no choice.

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