Beth Myers (to the right of Mitt Romney) is tasked with selecting potential GOP #2's - image Boston Globe
Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts and now presumptive GOP nominee, has been tracked by Gallup in a match-up with Incumbent President Barack Obama since August of 2011 (Download complete details here: at www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx), the polling data history: August 2011: Romney 48/Obama 46, September 2011: Romney 49/ Obama 47, October: tied at 47, December: Romney 46/ Obama 47, December 16: Romney 48/Obama 50, January: tied at 48, February: Romney 50/Obama 46, tied again February 20th, March: Romney 45/ Obama 49, April: Romney 47/ Obama 45 and this past week: Romney 48/Obama 43. (Gallup).
At first glance of this polling history one finds a close race with 6 instances where Romney was on top, and 3 where President Obama held the lead, they have been tied on several occasions. However, since Romney’s main rival, Rick Santorum has existed the race, Romney’s clear path to the nomination, has, at least in the first month of polling, given him a boost, with the most recent, a 5 point lead over the President. One can anticipate that Gallup, will continue to see ups and downs, depending upon the sample of voters on and the state of the economy on any given day, however, the trend is definitely in Romney’s favor. If this were October 2012, one would be laying bets on Romney as the favorite to clearly walk away with the Presidency, however, as with any incumbent, with the exception of Jimmy Carter, the onus is on the challenger to make points.
Herein lays the good news for Mitt Romney, regardless of a left-centered media, the individual voter is now comparing their standard of living against a standard of living four years ago, and making choices based on those personal findings. In polling, one looks to the state by state Presidential Approval rating and finds 10 out of 50 states where the President is over 50% approval, and in several of those states, that is at .1% over 50%. This could be seen as an anomaly, however, Gallup, has had the same results, with a drop in approval overall for Obama in a State by State poll, two years in a row: Refer to: State of the State 2012 (Released in January), and a year earlier, February of 2011.
In addition, Carter wrote the book on what not to do to an economy, and Obama followed it to the letter, and added a few tweaks. Although to be fair to Obama, today’s consumers are not abandoning their cars due to long gas lines or shortages yet. (See 300 New England Gas Stations without Fuel).
Therefore, if one is in Romney’s shoes, one might start seriously casting about for a running mate, carefully choosing who would best complement Romney in the general election campaign as the number 2. Speculation on this process began from the moment all candidates hit the political limelight, but now, it is time to get more serious. The selection of a running mate has more to do with geography and the differential between voters by state than other factors, such as diversity, and/or the ability of the #2 to stir up the base. JFK chose a Texan, Lyndon Baines Johnson, to help him secure the South, specifically the State of Texas. There was little love lost between the two men; rather it was a “marriage of convenience” so to speak. It is the strategy of choosing the right running mate that might deliver an all important state, or region of the nation in a general.
Romney, hired Beth Myers, his long-time aid, to oversee the search for the #2 slot. (New York Times). Myers was appointed as his Gubernatorial Chief of Staff in 2002(Boston Globe), left her position in 2006 to head his Super PAC (Boston Globe) and then became his Campaign Manager in 2008 (Reuters). She has ties to both Beacon Hill and Texas and one can bet the house, those that make the “cut” so to speak, will be well-vetted.
Therefore, unless one can channel Beth Myers, the speculation on who of the many options available will make the final cut, just might be a game of frustration.
The task presented to Ms. Myers is one of the most important functions, not only for the campaign, but for the American Public, as her choice may affect History. When one considers that the Team of Romney and X will be challenging the Obama/Biden team. In the last election, Biden was so heavily overshadowed by Obama, that few if any voters even knew who Biden was (search You Tube – one must sift through Biden gaffes first) – This time, Obama and Biden have a record to run on – enough said.
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