Santorum Campaigns in Kansas -Takes 51% of vote - image CNN
Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney are both leading President Obama in a new Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll, this tops off a day with Santorum taking the state of Kansas by a wide margin. Santorum, with 88% of the precincts reporting in had 51% of the vote to Romney’s 20%, Gingrich 14% and Ron Paul 14% winning the majority of the 40 delegates at stake – Mitt Romney will pick up 7 (Kansas.com) Meanwhile, Mitt Romney, the GOP establishment choice, picked up the territory of Guam, with a total of , 9 delegates. Currently, the delegate count stands at Romney 442 delegates, Santorum's 214, Gingrich 107 and Paul has 46, according to the AP. (Wall Street Journal).
A good percentage off Romney’s delegates are from Endorsements of establishment Republicans who have pledged their support as a delegate. Romney has squeaked thorough wins in states where he was expected to win handily, such as Michigan, against Santorum who has a wide appeal to those blue collar and independent voters, necessary to win a general election. Both Romney and Gingrich did not appear and or work in Kansas, instead Romney headed to the islands, and Gingrich went to Alabama ahead of the Tuesday primaries there, in a Custeresque attempt to make a stand. There is no clear manner in which Gingrich or Ron Paul can amass the 1140 delegates necessary to win the nomination. However, both Santorum or Romney would be, given the momentum be able to meet the delagate count with the states remaining.
It is now apparent that Gingrich may not pull even Alabama, as Santorum is now in a statistical tie for 1st with Gingrich, at 18.3 to Gingrich’s 18.9% of those polled, Romney is at 15%, 28% undecided and willing to change their minds. This is a huge shift from the Feb. 2nd poll, where Santorum was in single digits (AL.com)
It is a two man race now, heading into the south and west, where California finds Santorum on Romney’s heels in the latest polling, and Texas where Santorum has a huge lead in the polls 45% to Gingrich's 18 and Romney's 16. At this point, both Gingrich and Paul are footnotes, however, Gingrich is appearing as a "spoiler" in states where Romney has won by a small margin, with Santorum only 2 to 3 points behind such as Ohio and Michigan, giving rise to speculation that Gingrich is running only to outflank Santorum in order for Romney to have a win - this in a favor to the GOP establishment.
Romney continues to have problems with half the Republican base, as well as Independents and Democrats. As the “pre-ordained” front-runner, his persona has been likened to that of Bob Dole, another moderate who lost to Bill Clinton. The GOP establishment formula for running moderates has been known to fail repeatedly, as the candidates lack both charisma and an inability to attract their own base.
With this win in Kansas, Santorum will head into the south with the momentum, despite the negative attacks coming from both Romney and Gingrich. With Santorum able to win the key states necessary in a General Election, his ability to connect with voters and polling suggesting he can best the President, in early March, he is at the same place Ronald Reagan was (historically) in 1980. George H.W. Bush gave up his quest against Reagan in May of that year- there was talk of a brokered convention due to the fact that Reagan was “not electable”, a “clown”, and that he was “far too conservative” to win in a general. Reagan went on to win handily, not once, but twice, even taking the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. It was after his stunning victory that the GOP establishment “got religion” and took credit for Reagan as one of their own. History, as “they” say, has a way of repeating itself.
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