Santorum and Gingrich - the last men standing? Photo: Politico
Presidential GOP Candidate Mitt Romney’s campaign issues a press release noting that the former Governor’s surrogates will be speaking on his behalf in Press Conference in Boston:
“On Friday, House Minority leader Brad Jones and Citizens for Limited Taxation Executive Director Barbara Anderson will hold a press conference call to discuss Mitt Romney’s bold economic plan for more jobs, less debt, and smaller government.”
To date, that press conference, and a slew of negative campaign ads by Romney’s PAC, targeting Rick Santorum, is the only reference to Mitt Romney one can see in the Bay State. If one thinks that Michigan is critical to the candidacy of Mitt Romney, then one must imagine if he is rejected out of hand by the residents of the state in which he claims to have cut taxes, and most recently, claimed to have helped the Catholic Church.
Although Romney is polling well in a recent statewide issues poll conducted by Suffolk University (PDF here), on the 17th of February, the sample of 172 voters is such a small margin, that it is difficult to assess as credible. Rick Santorum has a 15% of the vote in this particular poll understanding that Massachusetts is a proportional delegate state, and with 15% of the primary vote, one is eligible for delegates. No other candidate comes close to those margins in the Bay State. To accurately assess Massachusetts, with the primary on Super Tuesday and 41 delegates at stake, (Delegates that Romney desperately needs) – internal polls might suggest the need for negative advertising, as well as more surrogate activity in the State.
As always, this blog urges non-Bay State pollsters, such as Public Policy Polling to conduct a Massachusetts Survey – the last poll conducted showed Romney with a huge lead, in September of 2011 – one might consider things have changed since that time.
Without polling however, or polling that is limited in scope, should Santorum surge in Massachusetts – and capture a greater percentage that 15, or, for the sake of argument, actually bests Romney is the Bay State – based on the ground here in the Bluest State (Santorum is generating the same type of enthusiasm two weeks out of the primary that there was for Scott Brown one week out from the January 19, 2010 special election for the Senate.) One might consider the recent attacks on the Catholic Church as reasoning, with Santorum leading the defense of the Church earlier than the other GOP contenders – as reasoning – given the fact that the majority of Massachusetts residents are Catholic, however, that is most probably not the case. The major factor would be the lack of enthusiasm for the former Governor. This is based on residency and other factors on the ground in MA – it is most likely that there will be few to no outside polls for Massachusetts, as it is normally assumed the Bay State will be “solid Democrat” and that there are no Conservatives in Massachusetts. A note: negative advertising, in more than any other state in the union, does not do well in the Bay State and has crushed many campaigns.
Again, one does not run advertising, especially when is spending more than one takes in, and to boot one lacks the necessary individual donations, unless there is a problem in “river city”. There is an excellent analysis of the FEC filing reports for January of this year, by the New York Times Romeny’s Money Problems” The Title says it all, but it is a must-read to understand where the actual voters are investing, rather than the P.A.C.’s.
On Making the Grade:
Rick Santorumwill be on the Ballot in Indiana – due to a recount of signatures, finding in favor of Santorum.
Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are the only two that have filed with the State of Arkansas as of yesterday according to Arkansas news sources From the Secretary of State’s office Santorum and Gingrich are the only two GOP candidates on the Ballot The deadline for filing is March 1st - The State of Arkansas holds it primary on May 22nd.
One can take the aforementioned (reading tea leaves) two ways, Romney’s Camp is waiting to get into Arkansas or hasn’t taken the time, and/or they may be looking at where best to spend the money to get onto ballots – Should Santorum pull out one or both States on Feb. 28th (given the polling is so tight in both Arizona and Michigan – similar, again, to polling in Colorado and Minnesota prior the primary), then pull down Romney’s Gubernatorial state in the Super Tuesday Primary - it would be hard to imagine Romney going further, as the delegate count, despite those super-delegates, would not warrant an extended campaign.
Granted, this is based on the old theory of History Repeating Itself – which is usually the case. However, with the layout of the remaining states, money considerations and the lack of enthusiasm for certain candidates over others, (in large enough numbers) it might very well be Santorum and Gingrich as the last men standing heading into April.
No comments:
Post a Comment