As the 2012 campaign is in the early stages, given the fact that the lazy days of summer have not yet ended, and the GOP field is considered to be fluid at this point, and the primary battles will not begin for another five months, there are no crystal balls available to predict any outcomes at this point, not for one of the GOP candidates who will go on to campaign against President Obama or the outcome of that contest. However, polls can be seen as an indicator of what might take place in the Presidential race of 2012, specifically those that point to a nations view of a sitting President’s job performance, that is unless one factors in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and the Press.
The Commonwealth of Massachusetts has been used by David Axelrod, campaign manager, mentor and political guru for both the State’s Govenor Deval Patrick, but especially, President Obama. To those who view President Obama as unelectable, consider that Massachusetts’s Deval Patrick won re-election with a 39% approval rating, besting the Republican opponent, Charlie Baker, by one point. Axelrod, on the eve of the Massachusetts elections noted that he would be watching the Massachusetts Governors Race, one would think due to his close relationship with Deval Patrick, however, he has been known to repeat strategy – borrowing from Patrick and lending to Obama, right down to the slogans.
The Massachusetts race appeared, on the surface, to be going in the direction of the challenger, however, there was a third party candidate, former Democrat turned Independent, turned Democrat, Tim Cahill, who also ran for the Governor’s race. Cahill, running as an independent, ended up siphoning off enough votes to pull out a “squeaker” for Patrick, this despite the fact that the Northeast in general is known to raid nursing homes, cemeteries and ballot boxes in order to ensure that an incumbent stays in office. Should the need arise, and should one of the Conservative Candidates start polling in double digits against Obama in 2012, watch carefully for an emergence of a third party candidate that suddenly found religion as a moderate conservative. Although the entire nation is not Massachusetts (or so those living here assumed, for years calling the Commonwealth the affectionate moniker “The People’s Republic”), the politics and specifically the strategy has been exported nationwide. Suggested reading running up to 2012: ”The Bluest State: How Democrats Created the Massachusetts Blueprint for American Political Disaster”, by Jon Keller. Although it may appear on the surface, to be partisan, one should understand the Keller provides an interesting perspective on Massachusetts politics which includes both major party and the players involved: in other words, this was written as a warning – one which the rest of the nation did not hear.
Axelrod, being only human, must, therefore, rely on a Progressive Press. MSNBC, which parent company NBC is owned by GE, of Immelt fame, is one of the major “cheerleaders for the President”. Putting aside conspiracy theories regarding Immelt's close ties to the President, and the fact that GE paid no taxes, and exported jobs outside of the U.S. while working as an Advisor to President Obama, it is a stretch that those pundits on the third rated cable news network (MSNBC), are taking cues from anyone, other than their own deep rooted Progressive Ideology. At a recent panel discussion on politicsMSNBC Hosts, Rachael Maddow, Chris Matthews, and O’Donnell predicted that Obama would be reelected the AP story is of itself, not news to anyone who even stops to watch the network for more than 5 minutes, however, it is the fact that the Progressives within the Press, both on air and in print, are of the same mindset. The mindset where one can pick up any daily paper, or listen to any local or national broadcast and find that the “Republican” or “Conservatives” are derided for what-have-you, and the Democrats are held in highest esteem. Should there be a scandal associated with a politician, one finds the word “Republican” inserted before the name of the individual who has an ethics problem, however, if that politician is a Democrat, there is, for the most part, no identification of party. This is nothing new and it has been noticeable by those moderate and independents reading and watching broadcast for the past twenty years. The bias is towards conservatives as well as the State of Israel, read any article watch any political broadcast and that is what one will begin find, the use of subjective adjectives that, inserted carefully deride one party and promote another. The fact that half of the nation (approximately) supports one over the other is apparently lost on those who print and broadcast and they are also gloriously unaware of the fact that this has affected both their ratings as well as their circulation. Just ask the gloating New Corp (they are in trouble, granted, over the whole wire tapping, al la Nixon charge – another bias), who has gained where others have lost, for employing a “balance reporting style”.
Therefore, not one of the candidates in the 2012 GOP field will be given positive press, either in print or otherwise, even if they walked on water, made it rain in Texas, or basically had better, yet much different ideas on how to manage (govern) the nation. From Michelle Bachmann and Sarah Palin, the two most egregious Conservatives due to the fact that they are also women (and should by Progressive think, be supporting abortion rights against pro-life rights), are consistently derided – it is the adjectives, keep in mind, that tell the story to the greater public. With the aforementioned, and the recent attack from the left on “Tea Party” activism – (basically a movement, not an organization that believes we are Taxed Enough Already”), complete with the Vice President of the United States dubbing them as “Terrorists”, (the buffoons, personal opinion), one find each article or broadcast regarding the aforementioned GOP candidate and possible candidate prefaced by “Tea Party”.
Governor Rick Perry, who is on the verge of announcing his candidacy for the Presidency has given the anti-God, anti-fiscal, counter-culture, spread-the-wealth, live-in-a-commune and take me back to the sixties Progressives, a plethora of new articles and broadcasts from which to pontificate on the horrors of a Perry Presidency. He is religious, he is a Texan, a Conservative, a Republican and of course, “Tea Party” (now that they are all “Terrorists”). What of Rick Perry’s Presidential bid and the Media:
See CBS “Will Rick Perry answer the religious right's prayers?” The most feared words a Progressive believes exists in the U.S. is “Religious Right”, then read the article and look for the “key words”.
An excellent article on Perry appeared in the Texas Tribune, this follows his formative years: at Texas A&M, and is the best “biographical” piece one can find on a potential GOP 2012 candidate from the press.
The Monkey Wrench – The American Public.
The public will continue to watch the economy spiral downward, and every indicator from Moody’s to your local grocer, is indicative that it can and will get worse, regardless of Obama not having to deal with any debt ceilings after the debt ceiling has been raised by a dysfunctional Congress, until after the 2012 elections (While worry about the nations finances while on the campaign trail? – By the way – both political parties took part in this decision – never mind the fiscal ramifications.) In that instance Party is generally thrown aside while people cast their ballot for the person at the top of the ticket who would appear to be likely to solve the problem. The most recent example of this phenomenon was the election of 1980, the president: James Carter, the challenger: Ronald Reagan – who, by the way, won Massachusetts. Regan, at the time was cast as the religious, right, nutcase, conservative, not overly bright, he was, after all, only an “actor”, the in-concert press hammered day and night, until the election was over, then they went to work demeaning everything that Reagan did, was about to do, or might have done.
He was easily elected to a second term.
Rick Perry, more than any other possible candidate, is the most likely coming out of the gate, to defy the press and upset the Axelrod model. He is not Ronald Reagan, no one is, but Perry is now the one to watch. Other candidates announced worth watching, sleeper Tim Pawlenty, Michelle Bachmann, and Herman Cain. Darn that Tea Party.
Polling firm references to Consider:
Gallup Polling: Confidence In Institutions: Specifically see Newspapers, Broadcast Television and the Presidency – compare to:
Gallup Polling: Gallup Confidence in Institutions 2010
Gallup Polling Presidential Job Approval
Rasmussen Reports : Presidential Job Approval
Public Policy Polling National Miscellaneous Poll
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