The 2012 Pack: Trump, Huckabee, Romney & Palin - image sources: westernjournalist, truthwins, business week and buddhistblog
Gallupincluded Donald Trump in a first polling of Republican potential GOP candidates, with the result that Trump tied with Huckabee for the top slots, followed by Romney and Palin, the balance of the 11 potential candidates did not receive double digit support. What was most interesting was the breakdown of the type of support these “candidates” might receive: According to Gallup Trump’s strong suit is moderate and liberal Republicans, with Huckabee garnering the majority of support from Conservative Republicans. The Poll conducted over five days and released on the 21st, included 1000 plus Republican and Republican Independent leaning voters, with 10% having no opinion when Trump is included in the mix. A second segment of the poll, without Trump, keeps the Leaders in the same positions: Huckabee, Romney and Palin, however, the no opinions jump to 17%.
With Romney one of the few out of the 15 categories (two of which are “other” and “no opinion”), who has set up an “exploratory committee, the results speak volumes regarding those who have not announced, or do not intend to set up such a committee, and their ability to be competitive in the field. The top three who have yet to announce due to contractual agreements: Trump, Huckabee and Palin, will, undoubtedly expand their leads once the formal announcements are made beginning in May/June of this year.
Gallup goes on to note that although the front runners in early polling may start strong, they do not necessarily end up with the nomination, giving the following examples: Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton in 2007, and Joe Lieberman in 2003.
The Gallup is one pollster who is “conservative”, not in ideology by in careful analysis of the field, and unlike the rest of the media/pollsters who are impatient with the lack of “publicly committed candidates”, does not entirely see this as a weak point as far as the process is concerned, cautioning that it is early in the game. This might be due to the fact that Trump was, until yesterday when this report was undoubtedly released, not considered a serious candidate.
That changed with remarks and phone calls made over the past twenty four hours. Trump called on ultra conservative pundit, Charles Krauthammer to make a case for his seriousness as a candidate, convincing Krauthammer that Trump, despite Krauthammer’s views on the man being somewhat less than glowing, is serious about the candidacy.(Source: Politico)
Additionally, during an interview on Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren’s “On the Record”, a telephone interview between Donald Trump and the Fox News Host, made it very clear that Trump intends to run, with an announcement set after the last airing of the NBC hit “Celebrity Apprentice”. Trump, also made it clear he would do nothing that would endanger efforts to remove Obama from the White House, vis a vis an independent campaign, it is clear that Trump believes, and the poll supports, he would be able to run as the Republican nominee, not as an independent candidate. Trump, with his take no prisoners approach to interviews, went on to disuses a wide range of topics, giving a variety of answers that appeared to be “half” of what the man might be thinking – he went on to level Karl Rove for his recent criticism of Trump’s candidacy by pointing out that it was Rove’s advise and leadership position within the Bush White House that drove the Republican Party down to the point where it would have been impossible for any Republican to be elected. It was a pointed, to the point, Trump style drubbing of the former White House advisor who many moderate Republicans consider irrelevant – or those Republican’s outside of the Beltway. The Video is below.
When the field of what will become, when late spring and summer brings the “front-runners” announcements, firm the real speculation will begin. Going out on the proverbial limb, as all those who play reverse Monday Morning Quarterbacking: It is, from this point of view, a matter of time before Palin and Huckabee join Trump and Romney, with Trump appearing to be the one of the three to accounted earliest (Palin may surprise), It would therefore, be a natural to pair one candidate who is able to reach the larger voting bloc, or those Moderate Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents, with one who would be able to attract the hard core conservatives. That leaves two at the top, one of which would gain the nomination via the primary process, with the other left in a strong position to join the ticket as V.P. Knowing now that Trump watches polls, and if the current trends continue: Trump would have the nomination, with likely V.P. Mike Huckabee (who has publicly said he would not turn it down (see Ingraham interview). Of course, this is based on the assumption of the current poll, which has Palin and Romney paired as appealing to voters from all ideological views of those polled by Gallup.
It would appear, that a ticket with Donald Trump/Mike Huckabee, would cover all bases, including those Democrats (moderate)who are now looking for an alternative and droves of voters who are seeking someone who is not a “politician” in the traditional sense (which includes Sarah Palin).
Of course, it is far too early to speculate, although it is in the nature of the political junkie to do so, but, this one blog strongly believes that should Trump announce, and he is serious, he will win the nomination and go on to win the Presidency. It is far too easy to criticize the man’s failings, be it his hair, or his way of attacking an interview, with the gusto and non-politically correct demeanor which is endearing Donald Trump to many both inside and outside the Republican Party. It will, of course, be the press, as well as those on the left, and yes, the Cocktail Party Establishment Republican’s who will continue to downplay Trumps importance, and dare one say - in the exact same manner in which decades ago, they downplayed one Ronald Reagan.
Note to Trump and Palin: Massachusetts is not a winner take all primary state – there are those who would work for a Trump or Palin ticket in the Commonwealth – it’s a mere 15% that places one on the ballot, and judging from those searching for “How to Volunteer for Trump (or Palin)”, coming from Massachusetts (no kidding), it would behoove anyone considering a Presidential run, to set up camp, even grassroots, a minimum of 4 months before the primary, and invest a little time in the State that gave the nation: Barney Frank, Ted Kennedy, Richard Neal, and a host of nefarious characters – not to mention one top GOP competitor, Mitt Romney.
Clip from Trump Fox Interview
or Link: Trump on Rove
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