Friday, April 15, 2011

2012 GOP Update: Donald Trump Tops National Poll – Leads Romney by 11 Points

Donald Trump has taken a commanding lead in the fourth national poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, a Democrat leaning pollster. The firm, regardless of political party, has shown to be extremely accurate in the end stages of political campaigns, having called Republican Senator Scott Brown’s win in the Massachusetts special election, January, 2010, spot on.

In the editorial which accompanies the polls release, the pollster focuses heavily on the issue of President Obama’s birth certificate, but does not focus on Trump’s (or any of the candidates) views regarding the economy, illegal immigration or any other “hot button” issue that might be considered of import to conservatives in general. This consistent focus from the left on this particular issue does not appear to be hurting Trump overall.

Trump is not included in the first eight question of the poll, missing is the question of favorability, it is almost as if Trump is thrown in as an afterthought. However, when Trump is included in a field of eight potential candidates including Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, he takes a commanding lead: 26 percent of the total, with Huckabee at 17% and Mitt Romney at 15%. This is the first national poll which has seen any Republican potential candidate take more than a 6 point lead. Question 10 focuses on the question of supporting a candidate who believed President Obama was not born in the United States: 38% were willing, 39% were “not sure” and 23% answered no. The balance of the pollsters questions focus on political ideology, age and gender demographics.

The survey was conducted using a sample of 400. Trump is expected to announce his candidacy after the final airing of his NBC reality television series “Celebrity Apprentice”, May 15th.

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