Huckabee Continues to Lead/Polls Best in Hypothetical 2012 match up
Public Policy Polling has been conducting a series of State and National Polls featuring 2012 GOP “potential” candidates versus President Obama beginning as early as April of 2009 In that survey, Obama led the four top GOP Contenders, with Mike Huckabee gaining the highest “favorability” ranking of the top four (Huckabee, Palin, Romney and Gingrich). However, polling fortunes have reversed as of late, and Huckabee is clearly leading the pack in the polling conducted since early 2009. Obama had led all “contenders” up until January 22, 2010, when Huckabee took a slim lead over the President, with Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin falling points behind the President. The survey’s released since that point have had little changes as far as the GOP “Field” used for polling purposes is concerned, with Huckabee either leading or at the top of the “pack”.
In the most recent surveys, all 2012 potential GOP candidates best Obama in West Virginia, normally a stalwart Democrat state. (See full PFD report Here ). In this survey conducted on January 27th, 2011, Huckabee leads Obama by the widest margin: 54-36, Romney garners 4 points less, Gingrich, a 10 point advantage over Obama and Palin, for the first time, a 2 point advantage.
In North Carolina, however, Obama leads all Potential (GOP) candidates, however, Huckabee continues to Best the balance of the “potential” candidates in North Carolina.
While the media is concerned with the fact that no Republican has announced so “late in the game”, so to speak, however, when one looks at the 2008 general election, candidate announcements were made in 2007: Romney declared in February of 2007,, In January of 2007, Huckabee announced an exploratory committee, and at the end of January formally announced his intent to run, Guilianni announced in February of 2007, and John McCain formally entered the race in April of that year.
Therefore, in the grand scheme of things, the old adage, “act in haste, repent in leisure”, may be in order. Of the contenders, Romney and Huckabee both came “out of the gate” somewhat early, both losing to McCain who announced later in the Spring of 2007, giving his team more time to conduct political intelligence, and decide which way the political winds might be blowing before jumping in. Most of the top field, when asked, is looking at a summer announcement of intent, in that way, as it has been noted in several articles on the subject, overexposure is used as the reason for holding any formal announcements. The wait also gives those in the “potential top condensers” field, more time to review polls as well as see who else may enter or not, as in the case of one Mike Pence who announced this week, he will not run.
One also has to take into consideration that the “front runners” have been polled by a variety of firms since 2009, giving them the opportunity to weigh their political futures by the numbers, earlier, and with less of an investment. Additionally, the four in the top field, all have PAC’s (Political Action Committees) as discussed in an earlier article on GOP Potential Candidates Media A List”.
What the continued lead by Huckabee tells us, specifically from a polling institute that “leans Democrat”, is that Huckabee has a general appeal, even among some Democrats. In the words of one “New York, East Coast Elitist, Liberal (whom this blog highly respects), the reason may be simple: We don’t really expect Obama to win in 2012, so we need to see who we can stomach, Huckabee is the only one”. Pointed out: an irrational aversion to Sarah Palin (one which has no reasoning besides “I can’t stand her voice!”), an apparent remark by Mitt Romney at an event during the 2008 campaign that alienated the entire “pack”, and Gingrich, well, Gingrich is old and boring, like McCain. As the mainstream media seriously gets involved in reporting on those who have announced, one may still find Huckabee’s write-ups with a first paragraph lead-in describing the Governor as a “Baptist Minister”, however, one might find that the tone may change, specifically during the early part of 2012, should it appear that Obama cannot be reelected, and should Huckabee announce, the lead in will likely read “2 term Governor of the State of Arkansas, and watch especially for the Hope, AR tie in to the Clintons (real or imagined). As Huckabee continues to do well with Independents, (the Beltway Conservatives will be his biggest detractors), and with Democrats (not Progressives mind you), then it would appear that, from this perspective, Huckabee is sitting in the “cat birds seat” as far as the field of 2012 “potentials” are concerned. Granted, should Huckabee decide against a run, this becomes moot. On Trump entering the fray: This will make for theater, can you imagine those debates? (Ratings, Ratings Ratings!)
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