Gallup 2012 Update: Huckabee Leads in Favorables, Palin in Name Recognition Among Republican’s and Independent Leaners

The Top of the 2012 GOP Contenders, sans Gingrich: Huckabee, Romney and Palin - image: freedomslighthouse.net

A new poll released today, January 10thby Gallup, gives projected 2012 GOP Presidential candidate, Mike Huckabee a fairly wide lead among the balance of the pack of projected candidates. When one considers that the Independent or unenrolled play a major part in each election, generally adding the points needed to push a candidate to the “win”, see 2010 Mid-Terms, this is particularly of import to Huckabee and/or any candidate regardless of party, which is able to positively identify with the independent (generally moderate) voter. Huckabee’s score on favorability was 30, with the nearest contender, Newt Gingrich at 24, both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin followed with 23 and 22 respectively. The scores for Recognition favor Palin, who comes in at 95 followed by Huckabee at 87; again Romney and Gingrich receive the next highest scores. (See Gallop table below for all results.)


Poll from Gallup on 2012 Potential GOP Candidates - click to enlarge - image: Gallup.com

Also: note from Gallup on polling numbers; they apparently used only the highly favorable and unfavorables in determining the “score”, rather than include the “somewhat favorable” or “somewhat unfavorable”. This may or may not have affected the rating overall, however, given that there are four that are, currently, leading the “pack” in recognition, one can estimate that the two that would be “neck and neck” would be Palin and Huckabee (given Palin’s overall scores on Recognition).

Although none of those mentioned in the poll have declared their intent to actually run for the Presidency, it is expected that some or all will enter the fray, with Huckabee, Palin and Romney, the most likely.

Huckabee’s favorability makes sense, however, when one looks at the “mix” of Republican and Independents utilized by the polls. He is not considered “far right”, as Palin, or for that matter, Mitt Romney, who is a fiscal conservative. That said, articles written about the former Govenor by the press, normally begin with the fact that he was a Minister, not the most recent resume regarding politics, his 2-1/2 terms as Govenor of the State of Arkansas. This goes to the “threat” level of Huckabee as seen by most of the “mainstream” media. The hard fiscal right, “The Club for Growth”, by way of example, paints Huckabee as a liberal, rather than allow the fact that the man governed from the right, moving to the center when it benefited his constituents. They promoted former Govenor, Mitt Romney in 2008, going so far as to place advertising with a message that was decidedly unfavorable to Govenor Huckabee. That will, undoubtedly reoccur in 2011-2012 should Romney (who has all but declared officially), and Huckabee both run.

Additionally, the blog over at Public Policy Polling, an unabashedly Democrat leaning polling firm with one of the best records in calling races (they were spot on with the Brown-Coakley race in MA, as well as many others which end result of the poll may go against their grain, so to speak), has written a recent article on Huckabee as a candidate. Entitled Huckabee’s the Best for Now” the writer outlines the reasons why, at this point in time, Mike Huckabee is a better candidate than the leading four mentioned in the Gallup poll. It is worth the read.

As speculation mounts, and every anchor or reporter who has the opportunity, asks each one of the “potentials” when or if they will announce their intent to run for the presidency, it is certain that the field will narrow, with at least one, most possibly Gingrich (historically), not running, and several candidates, also not listed, who will decide to run. That said, should Huckabee decide to run in 2012, he will have the definitive edge on favorbles, which will translate into independent leaning votes. Should he take the GOP primaries and eventfully the nomination, he would be a formidable opponent in 2012. He has a calm, seasoned approached that comes across as reasonable leadership. In addition, as the Govenor had run in 2008 and every possible strategic shot was taken (as in condemnation from the right and left for “alleged” crimes: i.e. minister, raised taxes, pardons while Govenor), those voters who are giving Huckabee the edge, are already aware of the aspersions cast and debunked by the Govenor and history.
One thing is certain, only time will tell if this field of “candidates” will be “intact” in six months, at which point candidates, most candidates will have made their intentions clear.