Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Clinton Run in 2012 – Speculation Rampant Despite Clinton Nay-Saying - Odd are She will Run (Analysis)


Clinton will she run if Palin announces? image libearlloc blog

Hillary Clinton, when asked about a 2012 bid for the Presidency in 2012 in a recent Fox News appearance indicated she had no interest in pursuing the Office of the Presidency, which reasons dictates, would put to rest any thoughts of a second Clinton run. However, although Secretary of State Clinton has stated, on more than one occasion recently that she has no desire to run for the Presidency, the speculation continues to run rampant – with good reason.

One the one hand, there are the conspiracy theorists and alleged White House leaks that indicate the current President is incapable of continuing running the nation due to medication use and severe depression. (Examiner, New York) While another take along the same lines suggests that Moderate Democrats are contemplating a coup of sorts in order to remove the President. (Examiner National) In the instance of these sorts of rumors, even if they were accurate, one would hope, for the sake of the nation, the President would not be forced to resign (under Article 25), rather would be persuaded to step aside, leaving Joe Biden “in charge”. One must stop and think about the prospects of a Biden Presidency, in order to truly appreciate the gravity of the situation, and the 800 pound gorilla in the room.

In addition to denying any plans (present) for a run at the White House, Clinton has also denied, she would replace Joe Biden in an alleged 2012 Obama-Clinton ticket(CBS News). The Secretary of State who was noticeably absent during the 2010 mid-terms – was doing her job - which requires she be out of the Country. This caused further speculation that she was distancing herself from the “scene of the crime” (otherwise known as historical losses for the Democrat Party). The fact that her husband, President Bill Clinton, was said to be campaigning for those incumbents who only supported Clinton in 2008, added fuel to the fire. (Telegraph).

A very interesting take on why Clinton will run can be found on the blog
”Death by 1000 Papercuts.com in an article entitled “Unconventional Wisdom Barack Obama Can’t Win Won’t Run in 2012”. In this piece, the author offers a scenario where Clinton will run, simply because Obama is already contemplating ending his tenure after one term. Therefore, Clinton would have no choice but to run, as there are no other Democrats who would be able to step in and appeal to the broad spectrum that is the American voting bloc, and, after the decimation of the party by “progressives”, a moderate would be needed in order to at least bring the Party back to the center. Although one would think that Clinton would not, in this wise, be running for the Party that literally stole the election form her via Super Delegates, rather she would be running to help undo damage caused by the aforementioned.

Of course, there’s talk about 2016 being the year she might run, but this assumes that Barack Obama will do the following: move to the center and play well with the Republican’s in Congress who are about to undo everything he and the Progressives have done in the past two years. If this happens, and it is, according to pundits on the right and the left, impossible for Obama to be bi-partisan due to his stringent ideology, then the President may be successful in seeking a second term. However, as the public furor over every one of the administrations boondoggles builds, regardless of what he attempts to do to push himself towards the middle, the blame is in place in the minds of many. Take the TSA disaster for example: although Janet Napolitano (a.k.a. “Big Sis”) is taking the heat, she works for and was hired by Barack Obama who is ultimately being blamed. (Huffington Post)

From the beginning of his Presidency, Barack Obama has followed the Jimmy Carter blueprint for running a government, which to those who point to a Bill Clinton second term as an option for Obama, must clearly not understand that Clinton was nowhere near as left of center as either Carter or Obama. Additionally, Clinton cared (still does) about polls.

Rush Limbaugh has a theory as well regarding a Clinton run in 2012 and , although it appears to be a bit Machiavellian, it does offer one truth that has been consistent with Presidential candidates from the history of the nation – deny, deny and then run.

From the right, the left and the center, all eyes are on Hillary Clinton, and when the time is right (and it is not time, even though political junkies have imaginary lists of Republicans who will be running – resurrecting the those who ran in 2012 as “front-runners”), which will not happen until at the least June or July of this year (give or take a month), she will announce her intentions to run for the Presidency.

A consummate poll watcher, with Sara Palin leading the Republican field in the polls, and Mike Huckabee opining that ”Palin may well run away with the GOP nomination” (Washington Post), then the pie is sweetened, so to speak. In addition certain polls show Democrats standing by Barack Obama versus Clinton at this point in time with a fair margin of 20 plus points, others (commissioned by the right, so not to be taken seriously by the left) show just the opposite - it is simply too early. However, even six months is an eternity in American politics, and should Obama not bend to the will of the people (and specifically the Republican controlled Congress), making him, for all intents and purposes, even more unelectable than he is now, and should Palin throw in her hat into the ring, Clinton would be doing a disservice to herself, the remnants of her Party and the nation if she did not announce. Odds from this perspective are that Clinton will challenge Obama in 2012.

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