Based upon the seventeen comments received since the article went “live” on Friday morning, sports enthusiasts apparently aren’t buying what the Republican’s sports section is selling. The article title alone says it all: “Message from Congressman Richard Neal: Help is just a phone call away” – and the following content reads like a campaign piece – with the inclusion of the promise that Neal will be back for another term. In addition, the opposition, one Republican Tom Wesley, stands no chance of beating Richard Neal.
That said Congressman Neal is placing “advertising” on You Tube! The ads depict “ordinary citizens” talking about how much Neal has done for them personally.
Seriously - YouTube.
Seriously - Real Constituents?
The Congressman who is most likely to “reach out and touch his constituents" every two years, prior to an election with a mailer touting how much he’s done for them, generally runs unopposed. The mailers, which generally speak about his "accomplishments" may not have been enough: He may have to try a little harder this year: The last paragraph of the article gives the guy (Tom Wesley) who doesn’t’ have a chance against this Democrat Incumbent – a mention:
We've seen the incumbents fall, we've witnessed the political upsets. Tom Wesley may not have the charm and good looks of a Scott Brown, but he's gotten the attention of the Neal campaign.
Apparently, Tom Wesley, who has a remarkable grassroots campaign, has Richard Neal worried. How worried - enough to put one ad on YouTube, where views on the ad (also shown below) have reached 252 (253 including this blog) to date.
Conversely, Tom Wesley’s who has several You Tube offerings - has one Health Care Video Ad has which has received 317 views. (Also Shown Below).
Should these particular You Tube ads which are reaching a minuscule audience in the grand scheme of things (web and the Hampden 2nd district), were to go district wide (cable) one can bet the house the Wesley ad would resonate with voters, while Neal’s ad would go flat.
The voters of the Hampden 2nd, both east and west, are familiar enough with their Congressman and how he votes. For the past several decades, many a vote has gone to Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck or a Warner Brothers Character, due to the fact that there was no other choice. Now, faced with a choice, Neal and his friends over at the Springfield Republican are doing their best to insure that Neal remains the status quo.
Fortunately for the Hampden 2nd district, given a choice may not be in Neal’s best interest. So, who is Neal reaching?
Neal is reaching is base, or his staff, and those reliable Democrats, who make up approximately 30% of the voting bloc in the Hampden Second. Who he’s not reaching is the rest of the block.
Up until last month, Neal was anticipating support in the form of one Bill Clinton who was coming to stump for Neal – the fact that Neal needed a visit from Clinton is telling – Neal has more in the “bank” than most Congressmen on Capitol Hill, so much so that he has been asked by party leadership to spread the wealth.
Did Clinton suddenly decide that Neal was not in trouble? Or was Barney Frank, over in the 4th District in more trouble than Neal? Also, consider the fact that Barney Frank did not give his super delegate vote at the Convection to Obama, and Neal did, (instead of the Former Presidents wife, Hillary Clinton) and one gets the picture.
It is not inconceivable that Clinton may yet be called upon to make an appearance; internal polls are still lackluster, at best for the incumbent (which prompted the Clinton visit in the first place).
Here are a few reasons why The Republican, although trying its best, may fall short: (Note the results as well as any mention of the primary results vis a vis a Republican Challenger by the Republican, were placed last on any article, almost as an “afterthought”. In addition, a debate played on the NBC Local affiliate, WWLP between the two Republican challengers for Neal’s seat, was shown at 2:00 pm, with video on the WWLP website. That said, there was no subsequent mention of a debate on the evening and or late night editions of the news broadcast that same day.)
As this is “Western Massachusetts”, we’ll call it “circling the wagons around Neal”, but will it work?
The Tea Party, Conservatives, Independents and Democrats; and odd mix to be sure, but all with one common interest – removing the incumbent from office.
Is Tom Wesley the man to send to Congress to Replace Richard Neal? As far as many of Neal’s constituents are concerned if Wesley is listed in the phone book, that’s good enough for them. However, having recently had the opportunity to meet Mr. Wesley and observe him speaking to possible constituents, one gets the impression that yes; indeed, Mr. Wesley has the right qualifications to impress a potential voter, even if that potential voter happens to be a registered Democrat.
Apparently, Tom Wesley is reaching those who don’t buy the advertorials, or for that matter, read either the web or print version of the Republican. According to the latest Circulation Audit the Springfield Republican has a reach of approximately 67,181 residents on Monday through Friday The Worcester Telegram and Gazette has a slightly higher circulation, reaching an average of 70,433 Monday- Friday (The Hampden 2nd District touches on Worcester, which is the 3rd Congressional District) (Recall Richard Neal and McGovern (D-MA), held a co-town hall on health care in August of 2009).
How many registered voters are these newspapers reaching? The district includes the counties of Hampden, Hampshire, Norfolk and Worcester, with Hampden County: Agawam, Brimfield, Chicopee, East Longmeadow, Hampden, Holland, Longmeadow, Ludlow, Monson, Palmer, Springfield, Wales, and Wilbraham. Hampshire County: Hadley, Northampton, South Hadley. Norfolk County: Bellingham, Worcester County: Blackstone, Brookfield, Charlton, Douglas, Dudley, East Brookfield, Grafton, Hopedale, Leicester, Mendon, Milford, Millbury, Millville, North Brookfield, Northbridge, Oxford, Southbridge, Spencer, Sturbridge, Sutton, Upton, Uxbridge, Warren, Webster.
Enrollment by Party in the aforementioned Counties (conceding that several of these counties are split by either than MA 1st or MA 3rd district) Based on the 2008 election returns:
Hampden County: 289,000 registered voters: 39% Democrat, 13% Republican, 46% unenrolled
Worcester County: 510,000 registered voters: 30% Democrat, 13% Republican, 55% unenrolleds
Hampshire County: 103,000 registered voters: 38% Democrat, 9% Republican, 51% unenrolled
Norfolk County: Town of Bellingham
The outcome may appear obvious to the Springfield Republican, (or not), that said, Massachusetts “Independent Voters” will decide the Hampden 2nd District Congressional Race. Those who identify themselves as “Independent” are currently nationwide, breaking away from the President, his policies, and those incumbents who were invested in primaries (either Republican or Democrat) – the trend is expected to carry through to the mid-term.
As of now, from this point of view, and the preceding analysis, Mr. Tom Wesley has an even chance of besting Congressman Neal. The more the local press runs articles under sports, lifestyle, and anywhere they feel they may be able to give their obviously preferred candidate a boost, it becomes apparent to the less than 30% of the registered voters they may be reaching in Hampden County alone, that Wesley is worth watching – 30% or the equivalency of talking to the choir.
Neal’s You Tube Advertisement
Tom Wesley’s You Tube "Advertisement"
1 comment:
I have been involved in the Wesley campaign, and I can say this, Tom is out there meeting people, something those of us in the district east of Springfield have never seen from Neal. When Neal feels the need to open a campaign office in Milford, you know he is running scared.
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