2010 Primary Update – Voter Turnout Key – GOP up 50% in Florida Primary – Exceeds expectations in Major Swing State – Primary analysis and commentary.

Press Readies for 2010 Mid-terms - image fox baltimore

My Fox Tampais reporting that voter turnout far exceeded predicted levels in yesterdays Florida primary’s. The Florida Division of Elections noted voter turnout was 50% higher than that of 2006 mid-terms. This type of interest and drive to vote in a mid-term election signals an increasingly engaged electorate, one which is making choices that are more in-line with polls showing an anti-incumbent mood shift in the nation, regardless of political party.

In Florida, Marc Rubio easily won Republican Senate primary – he will go on to face former Govenor (now Independent) Charlie Christ and Democrat Kendrick Meeks: The Republican candidates received 1,252,494 votes to the Democrat’s 909,307 a statistic that speaks to voter enthusiasm by Party.

As economic conditions continue to worsen, incumbents are feeling the heat on both sides of the aisle. In Alaska, Republican incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski stands in danger of joining Arlan Specter in early retirement. With 84% of precincts reporting as of this morning,Murkowski has a deficit of 3 points. A 3 point deficit can be overcome, but due to the nature of Alaska geography, it may take more than a day to finalize results - the Alaska Press, at this point, is not calling the race.

Primary contests held yesterday in Arizona, Vermont, Florida and Oklahoma, The New York Times reports that Washington Veteran's take Senate Primaries” and include incumbents John McCain (R-AZ) and Lisa Murkoswki (R-AL). The article author apparently neglected to check the Alaska media prior to publishing results. This is apparent denial over the dreaded “Tea Party” and the notion that money rules elections.

In Alaska, Senator Lisa Murkowski also faced an insurgent candidate, the Tea Party favorite Joe Miller, but after outspending him significantly she appeared to have a comfortable lead heading into the primary.

Again, as of this morning, Alaska Media still shows Murkowski with a 3 point deficit.

The high voter turnout and obvious media angst and denial over both the high turnout on the GOP side and the anti-incumbent angst voters in both parties are displaying makes for a wild and wooly ride into November.

The bellwether state(s), will be the blue New England States, with the Massachusetts primary on September 14th being pivotal, specifically with the sheer number of Republicans running in all but one of the ten Congressional Districts. Should voter turnout exceed expectation in Massachusetts – then one will have an indicator of how big of a shift has taken hold of the nation’s political think.

With incumbents in Massachusetts showing signs of weakness (See article in the Washington Examiner: ”Fear and the Politics of Panic” which describes the battle incumbents face nationwide, specifically, the 4th Districts Barney Frank.) Incumbent Richard Neal, the Hampden Second, is calling in the Big Guns – former President Bill Clinton is coming to Western Massachusetts to stump for Neal. That spells trouble, specifically using the “Scott Brown model” where the Hampden Second, voted in record numbers for Brown, and the “throw the bums out” sentiment is stronger in late August than it was in January.

It is, as of this writing, probable that up to 5 of the 10 Massachusetts districts are in play to the point where Brown’s election, although notable, will be less touted as an anomaly by the press, after, of course, they recover from weeks of therapy.
In other words, in every State, in every district, the outcomes are not predictable this year, and the electorate is engaged, energetic and angry and they intend to take it out at the ballot box. With so many districts to cover nationwide, it is not conceivable for either party to devote resources necessary to protect incumbents at risk, not that throwing millions at a race in today’s political climate means a hill of beans (See Alaska and NY Times comments).