Poll 2012 – Any Unnamed Republican Will Best Obama – Untold Story – Democrats Approval Tanks - Now On Par with Tea Party

A change in the offing? Will the Donkey be Replaced by a Symbol not yet Chosen? Image news political dot com

A QuinnipiacPoll released on July 21, 2010, which projects that President Barack Obama can be bested by any Republican in 2012 has been receiving a good deal of attention, however, there is more to the poll that indicates problems for Democrats in general through the next two election cycles.

Question 4 on the survey ask a general approval question for Congressional Democrats, the “score” given overall is 31% approval – 28% of Democrats Polled disapprove - including 28% of Democrats polled voting no confidence. In Question 15 on the survey which asks to rate approval for the Democrat Party overall – 34% disapprove of the Political Brand, opposed to Republicans who received a rating of 33% - that said, 21% indicated that they had not heard enough about the Republican Party in order to form an opinion, while 14% indicated they had not heard enough about the Democrat Party to form an opinion.

The Tea Party movement trends approximately even with the Democrats and Republicans: Question 16 reveals a 33% approval for the Tea Party, with 35% Not having heard enough in order to form an opinion. This indicates an opportunity exists for the Tea Party Organization to eventually brand ahead of Democrats and even with Republicans, thereby forming a viable third or replacement political party.

Question 2 of the Survey asks a general question regarding political preference should the 2010 elections be held (100 days approximately from the mid-term), now; voters would choose the Republican by 43 to 38%. The generic ballot question has run approximately the same across all polls, regardless of the type of pollster for the past six months.

In reviewing the Quinnipiac poll, one finds a badly damaged Democrat Brand going into 2010 and beyond for Barack Obama. Perhaps the most interesting aspect is the trending of the Tea Party on parity with both the Republican and Democrat parties. This sets the stage for a viable 3rd or replacement party in the near future, historically, the last change in major political parties, was in 1860, when the Republican Party replaced the Whig Party, formed a platform and nominated Abraham Lincoln as their candidate. As there has been little shift in power between the Republican and Democrat Parties in the ensuing decades, should the Tea Party form a platform, they would stand in place of the less dominant major political party – as of now, that would be the Democrat Party.

Finally, on "Buyer’s Remorse": Question 26, 37 to 35% of the respondents feel that the nation would have fared better under McCain’s leadership. That could be attributed to the low approval Obama receives on everything from the economy to the handling of the Arizona Law Suit. The survey was conducted using a sample of over 2000 voters, with marginals showing a correct portion of party affiliation, neither skewing the poll left or right based on 2008 trends. A word document is available for download which gives trends from past Quinnipiac polls as well as the marginals statistical data for the respondents here.

With the Fed projecting the unemployment rate to remain high through 2012, and the massive tax increases about to be put into play (2011) which will affect every household in the United States regardless of income status, may just be the final nail in the political coffin of the Democrat Party.

Taxes as any school child should be aware, was the reason for the formation of the United Sates, and the temperament of our nation regarding taxation has not changed in over three hundred years. It is without a doubt the economy that leads the concerns of the nations and determines the vote, however, with this particular poll, other issues of concern, from Afghanistan to the Arizona border, will continue to dog the administration and Democrats in general through the 2010 and 2012 elections.