A Gallop survey released todayshows an “historic” lead by Republicans on the Generic Congressional ballot. When one reads further into the data, the most stunning portion of this survey is the Independent Congressional Voting Preferences: which widens the Republican lead by 13 points. In states such as the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, this trend can be particularly disturbing to those Democrats who are up for reelection in 2010. Almost every Congressional district is in play, including high profile Democrats, Barney Frank (4th district) faces rising Republican Star, Sean Bielat) and Richard Neal (Hampden 2nd)faces popular Northampton Mass. Republican, Dr. Jay Fleitman. In all instances, Democrats, for the first time in Massachusetts history are facing multiple Republican challengers in all districts. The independent vote in Massachusetts, and like states, where independents either equal one party or another or far outweigh both with the total electorate, will make be the deciding factor in many 2010 elections. (Massachusetts as of 2008 had independents at 51% of the voting bloc.) This cannot bode well for State Democrats who will hold their convention June 4th.
Although pundits consistently point to the 12th Congressional District win of Democrat, Mark Critz, which is not without some guile – Critz basically, ran as a Republican in order to gain the seat. (See screenshots of campaign pages where issues are Republican driven issues.) Should this trend continue among voters, as outlined in the Gallop survey, the makeup of the Congress, and possibly the Senate will be greatly changed in November.
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There is a final part of this poll that is just as distressing for the Dems, voter interest. Republicans have a much higher interest in this election than the Dems. This is even more important because by and large conservatives are a more reliable voting block than liberals so the disparity could be much wider.
I think this could be a very bad year for the Dems.
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