Brown 51% Coakley 46% - Margin +/- 2.8% - Latest Poll Released Sunday Night By Public Policy Polling

A poll releasedon January 17th, by Public Policy Polling has Brown Up by 5 points over Coakley, but still within the statistical margin of error, according to the pollste who noted a margin of error for the poll at plus/minus 2.8% - polling 1231 Massachusetts voters using an automated telephone polling methodology. The poll did not include a category for “other candidate” or for Libertarian candidate Joe Kennedy. Additionally, the pollster is known as trending “left” in their political stance, however, they correctly called both the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, giving them credence. Polling, although a statistical science, is not without errors, specifically when the electoral makeup is not in line with the actual electoral makeup of the state, and questions posed are not either leading or not relevant to the race.

The Marginals: full marginals and cross tabs here

Voting: Brown: 51%, Coakley 46%, Undecided 4%

Favorable: Brown 56%, Coakley: 44%

Democrats 39%, Republicans 17%, Unenrolled 44%

Obama Approval: 44% approve, 43% disapprove, 13% unsure

Effective argument for election to Senate: Brown 56%, Coakley 41%

ACORN Stealing Election: 25% Yes, 38% no, 37% Unsure

Favorable Opinion of Democrats in Congress: 30%, Unfavorable: 55%, Unsure: 14%

Favorable Opinion of Republicans in Congress: 22%, Unfavorable; 63%, Unsure 15%

Brown: Liberal 4%, Conservative 58% Moderate 37%

Coakley: Liberal 64%, Conservative 4%, Moderate 32%

Political View: Liberal 23%, Conservative: 22%, Moderate: 54%

The pollster in calling a 5 point lead with a 2.8% margin of error a statistical tie included the following:

”Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.”

In reviewing the marginals, two (at least) anomalies are in place: first, the electoral makeup: Massachusetts electorate (based on 2008 statistics from the office of the Secretary of State), 35% Democrat, 12% Republican, 51% Unenrolled, and balance “other party”. In polls where Libertarian Candidate, Joe Kennedy is included, he garners 3% of the vote, in this poll, 4% of those polled are “unsure” which may account for the ommission of this candidate.

Obama’s approval remains the same from this pollster, referring to the last poll taken a week ago and 48% oppose the President’s healthcare plan. More over the question asked regarding ACORN stealing the election is interesting: although it is doubtful that the majority of those polled know about the roll ACORN has played in the political arena (given the virtual news blackout by mainstream media regarding that organization) 37% show as unsure, and 25% expecting the organization to be involved in voter fraud. Had the question been posed a bit differently, as in: Do you think the Democrats in Massachusetts will try to steal the election: those numbers might have been a bit higher, due to rampant corruption associated with Beacon Hill and the majority of the electorate in the Commonwealth being well aware of said corruption.

The pollster points out that “if” Coakley can energize the base in the final hours of the campaign, she can still pull it off – however, that would be an ACORN miracle at this point in the game especially coming into the final 24 hours of the election with a favorable of 44%. Note: both candidates lost favorability with this pollster, contributed to negative campaigning.

If the pollster were confident, given the 2.8% margin of error, Brown would have Coakley by 2 points, which is still somewhat of a “toss-up” even if it is a lead. Also of interest: given the make-up of the poll and the heavy reliance on Obama’s approval, or the number of those who voted for Obama in 2008 versus McCain, one would be led to believe that Coakley, herself, hardly factors into the race. What will be the deciding factor in this race is going to be “grassroots” and organization and Coakley's campaign. That momentum lays with the Brown camp.
Projection: Brown in a squeaker, (Factoring in the Dead, Acorn and the Momentum on Browns side). It is imperative that Brown’s camp continue the push, and should Coakley continue negative advertising, the margin for Brown may end up being a point or two higher. The weather and turnout: Forecast for Tuesday, January 19th from the National Weather Service: Springfield: Rain and Snow 50%, Boston: 60%, Worcester: 60% - should the forcast hold: advantage: Brown