Somethings Up - image reeks of science
Rasmussen’s”Daily Presidential Tracking Report” now has the Presidents overall job approval rating of 44% - or at “least 44% of the respondent “somewhat approve” of his performance. The worrisome number is the 42% who strongly disapprove, with a total “somewhat disapproving” at 55% - these are some of the lowest poll numbers to date.
Those numbers are roughly falling into line with former President George W. Bush, at a time when those who were on the campaign trail (challengers and incumbents alike), did their best to avoid the President – polls can and do paint a toxic picture (depending upon interpretation) of the state of any political challenge.
One has to assume that by the mid-year 2010, should these numbers not improve, those incumbent Democrats who are facing jubilant Conservative or Republican candidates, may not wish to include the President on the campaign Trail. Early indicators of results; Virginia and New Jersey, where the President, Vice President and anyone with high administration credentials spent a good deal of time attempting to rally the troops – with the end result of two significant losses. Special elections held at the same time were hardly blow-outs for the DNC, with margins well below what they should have been given the Democrat registration in California’s 10th. The New York 23rd was a circus, with the Republican pulling out days before the election and endorsing the Democrat over the Conservative Party candidate. That Republican still received votes, perhaps not enough to have pushed a decision in favor of the Conservative, but the results were so close, it was definitely no mandate.
In races across the country, in places known best for being firmly in Democrat hands, challengers have risen out of the Republican so-called “ashes” to take on some of the highest profile Democrats available. These Republican/Conservative challengers are coming to a "knife fight with a gun", tech savvy and ready – and yet, somehow, all seats are considered “safe” Democrat (most media).
In Massachusetts, the Special Senate Election sees Martha Coakley, the Democrat frontrunner, doing her best to frustrate the debate process – going too far as to make a tactical (depending upon point of view) error of asking to include the Libertarian Candidate. The theory being bandied about – Internal polls show Brown, the Republican, more than capable of taking that seat.
Over in the 4th Congressional District, Barney Frank has been raising funds and spending a good deal of time in his district. Frank is facing multiple challengers for his seat; both from Republicans and Democrats. One campaign sees a somewhat lackluster Republican challenger strangely optimistic – it has been rumored that even several Democrats volunteered to help in their internal polling - Apparently, Frank’s seat, besides his war chest and his visits to the 4th, is not particularly “Safe”.
Hampden’s second, where an almost invisible Richard Neal (D) faces an interesting candidate in Northampton Doctor, Jay Fleitman. Flietman is also upbeat – which is not the norm for the Massachusetts Republican. The norm has been, last minute candidates, entering late and finishing last.
Unless a miracle occurs in both Nevada and Connecticut, both Harry Reid and Chris Dodd, will be retired in 2010. Regardless of what candidate either man faces, they are being outpolled. Polls from these particular races, among others, can be found combined at Real Clear Politics where the red so far outnumbers the blue on the plus side, that it has Biblical overtones. (Speaking of which: See James Dobson Focus on the Family plan for 2010 – 2012 here You Tube Video 2007)
What of the Speaker, Ms. Pelosi? Yes, Virginia, there is trouble in San Francisco – although this race has been kept (so far) off the radar, a challenger to Nancy Pelosi, has risen from the Bay Area, one very confident, Republican, John Dennis.
2010 the year of Show me the Money
Enter the much dismissed and despised by Washington; those “Tea Party” and “9-12” groups. These particular groups are not only vocal but raising money hand or fist to support candidates based mainly on economic issues – or those who aren’t fond of increasing the federal debt and taxing the people to the third and fourth generation. Additionally, they are not trained activists, union members bussed to an event, but the rank and file voter – your neighbor, your aunt, the guy next door – who simply has had enough – which makes them a bit more formidable than one would assume. A recent article in Politico tells the story Conservatives Grab For Tea Party Cash Those conservative (some Republican, some Independent candidates - see Hoffman in the NY 23rd) are looking at additional funding – between both major parties, and the PACS (let us not forget Emily’s List and Move-on.org, the SEIU and the Federal Employees Unions who are raising money hand over fist (the unions on the backs of its employees) it is estimated that spending on political ads will rival that of 2008.
The question that must be asked, however, is how much money does it take to win or lose an election, especially if the voters have had enough?
Polls at this point, it should be noted, are used more for strategy by competing camps rather than as a voter’s guideline – those will come later in the year: for example should Reid and Dodd, still be trailing by double digits in September - then a new House may be in order. Both Pelosi and Frank, who have had remarkably easy re-election campaigns in the past, may be in for the ride of their political careers. Although, again, too early to call anything, should one see the President’s numbers remain the same through summer 2010, and the aforementioned avoiding him like the political plague, and then end up losing to Conservatives (again draw a distinction), the handwriting will be on the wall – for 2012.
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