Thursday, December 31, 2009

MA Senate Race Brown, Coakley, Kennedy - Where Are the Polls?

There has been more than a few bloggers that have asked why there have been no polls, as of yet, on the Mass. Senate Special Election Race, this blog included. Normally, one would expect that Suffolk University would have been polling all along - after all, they did poll the Democrat Primary back on December 7th (here). This poll indicated that Martha Coakley was basically untouchable, and the general collective think was that no further polls may have been necessary. In most instances, the seat is considered "safe Democrat" - why bother polling?

Change is good and change is constant. On good authority, a national pollster will begin polling "soon". There are several factors to consider as to why the wait, or what may have changed to prompt the first poll of the 2010 election cycle. One thought to consider, the changing political landscape, including that of the Massachusetts. How long must one wait for the poll to appear? No answer on that one, but "soon".


Mr. K said...

From Jumping in Pools - I agree 100%. Where are the polls? This election is not a blowout, it is damn close........and Brown has a chance to win this thing!

Democrats are scared, their aware of the backlash if Brown is close to winning, as Conservative Nation would flood Massachusetts.

What is the feeling on the ground (email me at )

Chuck said...

A close poll would not be good for Coakley because a close poll could inspire conservatives to come out to vote. Considering off-off year special elections have a low draw, a high turnout by conservatives could be enough to push Brown over the top.

I saw something interesting. I admit I have not been following this real closely so I pulled up an old story about the primary. Coakley got less than 50% of the Dem vote and Brown go nearly 90% of the GOP vote. Now it must be noted the Dem vote was much larger but in an election in which turnout is the factor, being a Republican who is inspiring the base v a Dem that is not overwhelmingly doesn't seem to be a bad position to be in.

Tina Hemond said...

Gentlemen, there will be a poll, soon - that said, internals can't be good for Coakley - otherwise, Reid would not be pushing that vote on Health Care to be on or before the 19th of January (the date of the election here in MA) - just a thought - they may just also be taking the state for granted, like the national media – makes some of us want to scream every time we hear “Kennedy’s seat”, as if it “belongs” to someone other than the people.
On the Democrat base Chuck - Massachusetts Democrats do make up 35% of the electorate, and Republican's approximately 11% (based on 2008 stats) the balance are Independents 50+% and a smaller percentage of “other party” - who have elected several Republican Governors - and voted twice for Ronald Reagan - the Libertarian that is running is going to take votes from Coakley (read may be conservative fiscally but.. that's where it ends - all social and anti-war rhetoric coming from Kennedy (and the name alone...) is appealing to Coakley's base. Brown more than stands a chance here - it will be close but, as you noted, special elections, higher conservative turnouts - surely the Dem powers that be have to be aware of that - yet...silence (so far) Remember, Mass has had a preview of everything - with Deval "Yes, we can!" Patrick (see test subject for Barak Obama's election re: David Axelrod) - therefore....

- Browns the real deal - by the way - public servant - not a "hack" - he publishes a newsletter for his constituents, every month - what's going on as far as legislation in MA, etc. - one would think that he would be too busy to keep that going - but nope, just released one on Dec. 22nd. Impressive - what we need in a Senator, heck what we need in a President.

Contchr said...

I have conducted a citizen's poll of Brown vs. Coakley. Brown has a comfortable ~ lead 12% higher than Coakley. For more information, see my post at We have data from over 1000 registered voters from across the state.

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